The highlight of this weekend's racing is the St Ledger meeting at Doncaster.
Guy will be giving it significant coverage in his analysis.
One of the Saturday races he intends to take apart
is The Portland Handicap.
A 22 runner 5f handicap sprint!
Finding the winner there is a bit like trying to
identify the cuplrit who farted in a jacuzzi.
If you fancy working out who to point your own
accusing finger at however, there are some Portland
researched race stats at email base.
Or alternatively to doing the hours of research work yourself,
you could instead play at being a Tesco Big Boss.
Hire Guy on a zero hrs contract at the slave labour rate
of £3 a day via the Saturday Day Pass
What About Sunday At Doncaster?
Sundays as well as Saturdays is I guess what
our newish weekender option is all about.
Typically a Sunday message will analyse a few few races
than a typical Saturday. Those already in the weekender
seem reasonably content at Guy's recent Sunday analysis efforts.
Aug 20th - 3 winners , 1 non runner and 1 loser from 5 races looked at
Sept 1st - The one I ranted about last week. Brilliant analysis from Guy including
a40/1 SP winner but due to hosting disaster sent to only about 5% of clients.
Sept 8th - Last Sunday. Another good Sunday with his favorite bet on the day winning.
On that one he split up his early odds nominal £10 TOTAL stake as follows.
£2.50 Each Way Northern Spirit 16/1-14/1 WON
£2.50 Each Way It Just Takes Time 16/1-14/1 PLACED
BUT do not expect to be singing joyful hymns every single Sunday.
Sunday Aug 27th for example was more of a dog's dinner with one
small winner from 6 races. In complete opposite fashion to those
terrible old 0898 lines that hype up so called "insider plot jobs"
I would rather tell you that Sunday coming could be a dog's dinner again.
If coming in for the Weekender short term gold fish vision is not ideal.
Better to come in with your own preset plan to give things a fair crack
of the whip over a longer term duration.
You can take some comfort in the fact that we have Saturday clients
who repeat use the 10 block option and have done so for over a year.
Or on the Full member service we have clients who
have been with us at least 10 years on the trot.
Even more if we lower that to 5 years.
Idiots they are not.
They are only still with us because their personal net long
term position with us is favorable to them.
On the flip side we have many who tried one, just one Saturday.
They got served a dog's dinner that random Saturday and they never came back.
Hard to blame them I guess.
It would be a very average human thing to do.
I could however fault them at approaching the problem
with no sense of longer term strategy.
Short term statistical scatter is a real thing I guess.
Over TIME however you can get meaningful averages.
If thinking about Sundays over the year to come,
I would be confident that on more than one occasion
over the year that the dog gets well fed.
Perhaps even one Sunday it will be so bad
not even the dog wants to eat it.
[ That said my own dog is happy to eat its own boke.
Waste not want not.
Even more gross it will lickey lips at a bit of strange dog boke
it finds on a pavement. After a dessert of licking its rear end,
it then wants to lick me. What has this got to do with anything?
I don't know. Me feels I am meandering off track again.]
Despite the odd expected bad day however I would
also have high hope and expectation
[ based on longer term full member contentment ] that
the net position over a year of weekends will be well acceptable.
"Well Acceptable" - That is about at the furthest hype range of
my understating language. Spot the boring ex civil engineer
who never went to shyster hype marketing school.
Even if you have no heed on joining here hopefully
you can take away some simple core philosophy
that will prove future useful to you.
Whether devising your own methods or pondering
a tipster or service to join I would suggest
#1 - Do your research first. Take your time there.
Good research leads to higher confidence in your choice.
#2 - Choice or choices identified, then you have to pre plan
a fair crack of the whip real life real time evaluation.
Call on the confidence gained in #1 to ride any initial dip.
Super simple but powerful.
It is aimed at designing out the usual flaws
of being a normal human.
===============
PORTLAND HANDICAP - FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Ante Post Statistics
Saturday 14th Sept
Doncaster 2.25
The last 22 winners
Had the following draws
12 14 5 18 14 18 22 12
10 15 12 21 15 16 18
21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8
No horse has won this
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4
The 2022 winner
Did win drawn from stall 3
But only in the stewards room
The winner drawn in stall 14
Was demoted after the race
Since 2002
Every Portland winner
Ran within the last 47 days
Go back to 1997
Horses with over 7 runs
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 1-104 record in this
Only winner a 5yo in 2018
3 year olds
Have a 1-56 record since 2001
That sole winner was in 2019
4 year olds
Won 7 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
22 16 13 9 7 17 18
Had the following runs that year
8 6 5 4 3 6 9
Had the following absences
7 24 24 24 42 24 18 days
Won from the following ratings
106 91 102 95 100 96 100
Won from the following draws
12 14 5 12 5 12 14
4yo's winning last time are 1-26
Horses aged 4
More than 7 career runs
Absent over 24 days
Have a 0-40 record since 1997
5 year olds
Won 9 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
26 29 30 24 19 6 8 20 31
Had the following runs that year
5 8 6 6 3 5 5 4 8
Had the following absences
20 46 14 19 28 7 35 28 15 days
Won from the following ratings
93 99 101 97 97 96 100 95
Won from the following draws
18 18 22 14 20 19 6 17 14
6 year olds
Have a 0-101 record since 1997
Count the 2022 promoted winner
That becomes a 1-101 record
Go back to 2005
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 3 days
Have a 0-126 record
Count the 2022 promoted winner
That becomes a 1-126 record
Fillies have a 1-67 record
The winner a 4yo filly in 2013
Official Ratings of past winners
106 92 102 93 105 99 92
95 108 100 96 97 101 96
Horses aged 5 or more
Rated 102 or higher
Absent over just 3 days
Return a 0-35 record
Lighter weights struggle
Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 0-59 record since 2002
Avoid 1-2 runs that season
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 2-61 record in this
Those absent over a week 0-52
No winners came from 7f or 8f
Horses just beaten 12+ lengths
Have not won this in decades
*******************************************************
*******************************************************