Hi Folks

I hope the world is treating you well.

A couple of items this week for you.

#1 - The Usual Saturday Service Plug
#2 - Sky Bet Handicap Chase - Doncaster 3.15 - Early Analysis
#3 - Cheltenham Ryanair Chase
#4 - Minor Pedantic Stuff

#1 - The Usual Saturday Service Plug

Let's get this shamless plug out of the way first.

If you have not already done so
ponder a £3 Investment in our Saturday message.



10 am Saturday is the till shuts cut off point.
The racing message will be sent shortly after that time.
Better you are early than late.
Book in now.

#2 - Sky Bet Handicap Chase - Doncaster 3.15 - Early Analysis

Guy sent this snippet out on Wednesday to Full members.
Just a bit of early analysis for Doncaster on Saturday.
This is one race he will be revisiting in his Saturday
message once final declarations, going and odds are
more firmed up.

Still quite a bit in this early look however that may be of use to you.

Sent Wed 27th Jan

Ante Post

Saturday January 30th

Doncaster 3.15

Sky Bet Handicap Chase

Cap du Nord 10/3 Canelo 6/1 One For The Team 7/1
Aye Right 10/1 Musical Slave 10/1 Give Me A Copper 12/1
Mister Malarky 12/1 Rocky's Treasure 12/1 Sojourn 12/1
Boldmere 14/1 Commodore 14/1 Sizing At Midnight 14/1
Kapcorse 14/1 The Butcher Said 16/1 Yorkhill 16/1
Definitly Red 20/1 Takingrisks 33/1

3m Handicap Chase (Listed Class)

10 Past renewals

All past winners
Had this basic profile

Male Horses
Aged 7-8-9-10
Absent 3-9 weeks
At least 2 runs that season
Coming from 2m 4f or more
Not coming from Grade 1-2
Not coming from a Novice
Under 22 chase runs
Rated between 151 and 132

Horses with this profile
Produce a 10-58 record

The following horses pass

Cap du Nord 10/3
Canelo 6/1
Aye Right 10/1
Rocky's Treasure 12/1
Sojourn 12/1
Boldmere 14/1
Commodore 14/1
The Butcher Said 16/1

Number of Chase runs

19 Cap du Nord
13 Rocky's Treasure
12 Commodore
7 Boldmere
5 The Butcher Said
6 Aye Right
4 Sojourn

BOLDMERE may be risky
His sires runners in this class
Modest 1-44 at any distance

COMMODORE looks unsafe
Beaten 42 lengths 3 weeks ago

SOJOURN has 4 chase runs
Bit on the inexperienced side
Especially for an 8yo
Similar races Jan-February
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 6 chase runs
Under 12 lifetime runs
Carrying 9st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-18 record in them
SOJOURN has this profile

CAP DU NORD has 19 chase runs
That's a lot for an 8 year old
But the 2017 winner managed it
Impressive 4 length Newbury win
Then he ran into Royal Pagaille
Brings form and momentum here
But he won off a 123 at Newbury
He has to run off 142 in this race
And 19 Chase runs could mean
There may not be improvement

Lightly raced looks well treated
But has to improve his jumping
He did jump round Cheltenham
Last time his handicap debut too
So he is far from written off here
But may be a doubtful runner

Won last time out at Doncaster
His best numbers are at this track
Can not be ruling him out yet

CANELO is an 8yo
No strong statistical objections
Comes here after a career best win
And from a significant stable as well

AYE RIGHT is an 8yo
Unorthodox because of his prep
Ran in a Jumpers Bumper 10 days ago
Asking plenty to win off a mark of 151
Having had just 6 chase starts before

Waiting for the Declarations

A Race we can pick up later on


#3 - Cheltenham Ryanair Chase

Again pinched from mid week Full member stuff
this is a couple of snippets about the Ryanair Chase
at Cheltenham Festival 2021.

Odds slightly shorter now on ALLAHO
and obviously with the Wednesday race
at Thurles already won it won't be possible to
mirror Guy's own exact strategy below.

However even at 6/1 or 5/1 NRNB at PPower
I do not think Guy would file you in the lunatic department
if you were interested in a small interest ante post punt.

Your money your choice.

Sent Wed 27th Jan


March 18th

Ryanair Chase

Min 5/1 Imperial Aura 8/1 Allaho 8/1
Melon 12/1 Saint Calvados 12/1 Samcro 16/1
Mister Fisher 16/1 Waiting Patiently 20/1 Altior 20/1
A Plus Tard 20/1 Master Tommytucker 25/1

Tend to do this race very late
Running plans are a nightmare
Too much risk of a non runner

Ruby Walsh

In the media this week
Advised a bet for this race

ALLAHO 8/1-9/1

Each Way

Gave some sound reasons
Obvious the horse this year
Has not yet been fit enough
Will be laid out for this race

Little surprise his selection
Originates from Willie Mullins
But the stable also have Min
And he could have gone there
Mullins also has Melon in this
He did not go with him either

Just listening to his arguments
Seemed to make a lot of sense
He hasn't randomly picked him
He has had his card marked
That this is the race he targets


Too early for me to get involved

ALLAHO though runs today

Thought this was an idea

Staked to £10

Thurles 12.45

Allaho Evens -10/11

£5 Win


Allaho 8/1

£5 Win Bet

Allaho winning today
Gets a free Cheltenham bet
On a horse that will be shorter

Allaho losing today
Well you do half your money
But still could make £35 profit
If he wins the Ryanair anyway

Sent Thurs 28th Jan

Ryanair Chase

Min 5/1 8/1 Allaho 6/1 Imperial Aura 8/1
Melon 12/1 Saint Calvados 12/1 Samcro 16/1
Mister Fisher 16/1 Waiting Patiently 20/1 Altior 20/1
A Plus Tard 20/1 Master Tommytucker 25/1


Strategy paid off yesterday
Comfortable win at Thurles
Paying for the ante post bet

Allaho looked very impressive
I can see him starting favourite

He is 3 years younger than Min

You don't get many 10yo winners
In those Grade 1 festival chases
Waiting Patiently has this problem
Altior if he runs is 11 years old

Melon will fail a breeding angle
None of the sires winners at 21f +
Won in Listed or Graded races

Allaho looks the one at this stage
Ryanair winning trial yesterday

#4 - Minor Pedantic Stuff

Guy announced a small change in message format the other day.
For the past few years he has had two categories of official bet at
the top of his messages. Account and Highlighted.

From now on it is simpler with just a single official bet category.

It is very minor cosmetic stuff.
The only real reason I am mentioning it is in case
some of you have a rush blood to the head and decide to join
the other idiots already in the full service. Quite a few of them
have displayed such idiocy for 5 to 10 years on the trot.
For all I know you could be such a numbskull too this weekend.

There is an auto welcome email after join up to the full service.
This is now out of date and blabs on about
Account and Highlighted etc.
I will get round to fixing the text soon
but right now it is flawed and inaccurate.
So I will prewarn in just in case fashion
so as to help avoid minor confusion
from any new full member joiner.

February is usually an interesting service month as it happens.
There is all the normal day to day racing of course.
The usual mix of lower and higher grade.
But Cheltenham looms as well and things get a bit more firmed up for that.
Entries have just been published for all the Novice Hurdles for example.
That will trigger Guy taking a closer look at those next week.

Cheltenham related content within his mid week Future Betting Angles
sub section naturally increases in rate as well.
One thing Guy likes to do with his own cash round about this time of year
is to place smaller stakes doubles and trebles whose final leg
is a Cheltenham planned runner.

He was discussing one today that would turn £10 into circa £200
with a Cheltenham hot pot current market favourite as the last leg.

He will no doubt have a few more of these over the month to come.
Not official bet category is such stuff.
More so Guy just explaining off the record what he
did with his own personal speculative cash and why.
[ I guess you could compare that against a press journalist
who may write glowing words but not put a penny of his
own cash on what he writes about ]
The obvious hope and plan for Guy is to arrive at the Festival
with some favourable positions pre set up.

One first small egg he clucked out today.
Time will tell if it turns to omelette
or is to be counted as a chicken.

Either way it is an interesting alternate and
complimentary to normal action strategy.

By all means drop me an email about the Full service
if you want to know more about it.

Anyhow (as per usual) I find myself meandering away from
the minor pedantic point I had intended to restrict myself to.

Better shoot.

I hope you enjoy your weekend.

Best Wishes





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