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It is Epsom Derby Day on Saturday.

If you fancy the benefit of Guy's day of race
views on that race (and others) please book in
for our Saturday Day Pass at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

NB The very latest to book in by is 10am Saturday.

For those of you of a "prefer to work
to pick your own" persuasion I have copied
Guy's thoughts from last year below for you.

Certain angles and core trains of thought
you may be able to transfer to this year's race.

Guy's top 3 did pretty well last year.

1) Idaho - 3rd [ his prime pick each way ]
2) Wings Of Desire - 4th
3) Harzand - Won

And a quick note

Watch for difference in bookie place payouts in this race.
Last year quite a few were paying 4 places at 1/4 odds.
Right now for this year I only see Bet365 matching that.
Others are offering 3 places and 1/4 odds
The tightwads have the standard 3 places at 1/5th odds.

Such stuff can change however as markets move
from ante post to day of race.
Keep an eye on it if you are going each way. Try and
avoid the frustration of not winning as much as you could
have done due to poor bookie choice :)

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Guy's Epsom Derby 2016 Predictions

1) Idaho 16/1
2) Wings Of Desire 5/1
3) Harzand 12/1

These firms offer 1/4 the odds 4 places
Tote Paddy Power Betfred Corals
IDAHO is 16/1 with all 4 firms
He would be my each way selection

E p s o m 4.30

9/2 Us Army Ranger, 9/2 Wings Of Desire
7/1 Cloth Of Stars, 7/1 Ulysses, 10/1 Deauville
12/1 Harzand, 12/1 Moonlight Magic, 14/1 Port Douglas
16/1 Idaho, 16/1 Massaat, 20/1 Red Verdon
25/1 Across The Stars, 25/1 Algometer
25/1 Humphrey Bogart, 40/1 Shogun
100/1 Biodynamic.

I like to look at the Derby via historical numbers
I like to compare the standard against the past
Look at every Derby winner since 1999
Their lifetime best Racing Post Ratings were these

123 122 112 121 118 114 124 121
121 120 119 120 119 119 119 115 118

The last 17 winners all had a Racing Post Rating of 112 +
The lowest rating was Ruler of the World (112) in 2013
The next lowest was Workforce (114) in 2010
15 of the last 17 winners achieved 118-124 ratings
Therefore I would prefer a R.P.R of at least 112

Only 6 Horses have achieved this benchmark

Wings Of Desire - Massaat - Deauville
Harzand - Port Douglas - Cloth Of Stars

US ARMY RANGER has not managed that
He has a Racing Post Rating of only 109
He is the least experienced horse in this race
He never raced as a 2 year old
The last winner that did that was 1993 and he had 3 runs
The last winner over 12f here to win drawn 15 oir more
Was Snow Fairy back in 2010
US ARMY RANGER has a bad draw

MOONLIGHT MAGIC has raced 4 times
His best Racing Post Rating is 109
That is 3lbs lower than all recent winners
On the plus side his sire has bred 2 Derby winners
He has brilliant connections as well
But the last horse to win this race
With numbers as low as him was High Rise in 1998
MOONLIGHT MAGIC is also drawn 1
59 races here since 2006 with 10 + runners
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-59 record in them
I don't see him overcoming that

RED VERNON has only achieved a 107
He is hard to fancy coming straight from a Handicap
His sire has never bred a Group 1 winner in the Uk
His Draw in Stall 16 is a massive negative too

HUMPHREY BOGART has a Racing Post Rating of 105
That is far too low when you consider he has 8 runs
Past winners had the following career runs
2 4 2 3 4 2 4 7 3 5 3 3 3 5 3 4 5 3 7 2 1
HUMPHREY BOGART would be the most exposed winner
Since Erhaab in 1994 and he had a R.P.Rating of 126
If you look at the sires winners over 12f and more
None have won in Listed or Group Class yet
HUMPHREY BOGART could have been better drawn too

ULYSSES only has a Racing Post Rating of 99
Thats 13lbs lower than all past winners since 1999
He only beat a field of unraced horses last time
His profile is fine but his numbers are not
It took him 3 runs to win his maiden as well
Lovely prospect but needs to improve greatly

ACROSS THE STARS has lost 3 of his 4 runs
His Best Racing Post Rating of 104 isn't enough
SHOGUN is outclassed
BIODYNAMIC is outclassed

ALGOMETER doesn't have the numbers
He has a good profile of 4 runs and 2 this year
Pour Moi and Sinndar had similar profiles
He is only 3lbs behind on the Numbers
Could be worth turning a blind eye to that
After all it could be a bad year
Connections are on record about the track
They have said they worry it may not suit him

MASSAAT was 2nd in the Guineas
That puts him Top on Racing Post Ratings
He may not have the Breeding to win a Derby
The main worries for me are trainer and stamina
His Trainer is still very inexperienced
He needs to condition this horse to win at 12f
To step up half a mile in distance
Yet he's never had a runner beyond 10f in a short career
I assume this is an Art and not something very simple
He has to get him to peak for 2 Group 1's in 5 weeks
Theres a reason why this race is won by top class stables
He might win but I am not convinced

DEAUVILLE has 5 runs and 1 this year
The same profile as Sir Percy in 2006
That horse had achieved more though
DEAUVILLE has lost his last 3 races now
The biggest concern has to be his class
Where he stands in the Ballydoyle pecking order
I don't think you can presume he will stay
He may be a Galileo but his dam only won over 5f

Shortlist

PORT DOUGLAS has 6 runs and 1 this year
The last 4 winners to have 6 or more runs
Did all have 2 runs that season
His Numbers are just good enough to shortlist
But I would have liked a second run this year
And he has only won 1 of his last 5 races
Shortlisted on his numbers
But I prefer one of two others more

HARZAND has 3 runs and 2 this season
Racing post Rating of 114 is enough to qualify
He won a recognised trial in the Ballysax
4th Best on the Numbers after only 3 career starts
His Father won the Derby
He has to be considered a lively outsider
He has a very good chance of staying
Initially he was thought of as an Irish Derby horse
That raises concerns about the track
This is a big horse and it could be a problem
My Main 2 objections are these
If you look at the Racing Post Ratings
Of past winners on their 2yo debuts
You find almost all have ratings of 82 or more
They were 86 88 92 87 0 96 88 94 88 82 92 88
HARLAND only managed a 71 on his debut
His second run was onl a rating of 98
He is playing catch up in my view
And he comes here after 2 runs on Heavy ground
That doesn't strike me as ideal either

WINGS OF DESIRE has good enough numbers
Brilliant Trainer and rule out at your peril
One of two things do bother be
He was unraced as a 2 year old
It is 23 years since that happened
I also don't feel he is a certain stayer
His is a full brother to Eagle Top
I opposed his brother over 12f recently
I don't think he stays this far
I think his 12f win was a falsely run race
You can't fail a horse on the failings of his brother
But it does worry me a bit
His Sire Pivotal has 2 Group winners over 12f
That was Sariska winning the English and Irish Oaks
There has been some uncertainty as to the track
Some Judges are not certain he is an Epsom horse
And this is his 4th run of the season
Look at the number of runs past winners had a 3yo's
1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 1
Having 4 runs in under 2 months is an issue
The last winner that did that was Quest For Fame
That was a bad year and it was 26 years ago
I remember it as I was there
And went down on the Jackpot in the last leg !

CLOTH OF STARS has 6 runs and 2 this year
He deserves maximum respect from Andre Fabre
One little issue I have with him
Is that if you look at past winners
Who had 5 or more career starts
You find 8 winners since 1991
These 8 winners had the following R.P.Ratings
125 117 126 119 121 118 119 120
CLOTH OF STARS has only managed a 113
Should he have achieved more by now ?
He will stay though and is safely shortlisted

IDAHO has a Racing Post Rating of 111
Ideally I would want a rating of 112
But I can forgive him that
It is only a very small 1lbs difference
And this is a horse that has had excuses

He won first time out over a Mile as a 2yo
That was a strong Racing Post Rating
He was weak in the market and said to need the run
Did nothing wrong hacking up that day

You have to forgive him his defeat next time
He went from a Maiden to a Group 1
That was in France over 10 furlongs
It was very soft ground just 18 days after his debut
IDAHO started 6/4 favourite for that race
If you look at every 2yo sired by Galileo
And look at how many of these
Won Listed or Group races over a mile or more
When having under 3 career starts
When Racing on soft or heavy ground
You can only find 1 winner
Kingsbarns won a Mile Group 1 after 1 run
No Galileo 2 year old has done it over 9f
No Galileo 2 year old has done it over 10f or more
When having under 3 career starts
IDAHO had to do it over 10 furlongs
In a Foreign country so quickly after his debut
No 2yo sired by Galileo had ever done that before
That tells me he had a genuine excuse

His first run this season was in the Ballysax
He was not fancied that day
He needed the run as many from his stable do
IDAHO recorded a Racing Post Rating of 111 that day
Thats pretty good first time out on heavy ground
That was his 3rd career start
If you look at every horse in this race
And look at their first 3 career starts
Only 3 horses in this race
Managed a Racing Post Rating of 111 or more
On the first 3 runs of their career
The others were Harzand- Massatt - Wings Of Desire
After only 3 lifetime starts
IDAHO had the 4th best numbers in the race at the time
You would expect Natural improvement on his 4th start
That was in the Derrinstown
IDADO was badly positioned in a Muddling race
He finished fast but was given far too much to do
Don't forget he started favourite for that race
He has a great draw today
In a wide open race he looks worth a bet

Selection

IDADO 16/1

Each Way

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Best of luck over your racing weekend.

Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


 

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