Free Cambridgeshire Stat Research
Guy provided full members with some advance
research work yesterday into Saturday's big race
at Newmarket ie The Cambridgeshire.
I thought some of you may appreciate
a few extra clues that could assist you
in unravelling a race Guy himself describes as
"difficult.... but not impossible"
Last time he looked at this race was in 2014
and back then his shortlist of two finished first (20/1 early
and third (10/1 early price)
Stats research as per the link below for this year was the
backbone of that 2014 effort.
I would describe these as Phase 1 stats.
They are all about positive and negative
form traits of typical race winners of the race.
Phase 2 which Guy will be working on in time
for Saturday's message is then about cross referencing
this years runners against these stats to
seek a viable shortlist.
The question to answer is NOT who is the most likely
winner of the race but where does the punting value lie.
A decent enough day for official bet followers
as Belle Meade advised each way at 16/1
drifted out to 20/1 SP and placed.
I think sometimes too much emphasis is placed
by punters on market movement.
Another example of that was yesterday's official bet
where Guy covered two horses in the same race.
Kiwi Bay was 9/2 early, backed into 9/4 SP and lost
Chiswick Bay was 9/1 early. It drifted out to 14/1 SP and won.
Drifters can often induce some lemming like
behaviour on the exchanges with a small drift in odds
being mistaken for irrefutable proof that a horse is a definate
Chiswick Bay was 18.8/1 Betfair
That is more than double the 9/1 Guy thought was a value price.
For you own punting try separating things into two separate
#1 - There is the ability of the horse and it's chance of winning.
#2 - There is a market driven by often irrational human sentiment.
Assume no connection between the two.
Picture for example four major newspaper tipsters all by random
picking the same 2/1 favourite. Weight of reader money may drive
the price into evens and the 5/1 shot you fancied may now be
Does your horse have less, more or equal chance of winning
as it did at the start of the day?
It's equal chance but you now get paid 8/1 not 5/1
Put a bit of effort into defining #1
and then the more the market disagrees
with you the happier you will be.