Hi Folks
Firstly the usual quick reminder about our cheap Saturday only option availability.
On Saturday Ascot provides the classier cards and no doubt Guy will have
his nose into several races there. Additional options to go value hunting
include Doncaster, Newmarket and York. Ireland as well may provide opportunity.
On a typical Saturday Guy may research and write up about 8-10 races.
Final choices as to what races are usually led by where his preliminary research
indicates he may find some edge.
Story Of The Post Covid Season So Far
It has obviously been a very unusual year for racing.
Racing returned at the start of June.
Attempting to summarise Guy's big picture approach
it may have been one of treading carefully at first
then gradually ramping up aggression levels
as post racing break form became more credible.
After a bit of cautious manoeuvring to navigate
the rocky post covid shoreline he is now reaching
full steam ahead territory. No doubt a few others will
have wrecked their boats trying to go too hard too fast.
Guy has said to me in the past that he sees his mission as trying
to navigate full member clients successfully through a year's worth of racing.
( whether that be a normal year or a weird covid year )
Sensible enough as that attitude sounds it can actually bring conflict with certain clients.
Picture for example a personality type at an extreme end of the spectrum.
Perhaps they are unexperienced at racing.
Their mental pre preparation has been reading the outer advertising hype
of rouge operators promising big priced nailed on bankers.
They join here for the long and exhaustive testing time of a single Saturday
and then leave when they are not millionaires by the end of the day.
Our site is quite low hype I believe.
We could if we wished high hype the home page
with details such as how compounding up a bank could
have turned an initial £1k in 2014 into £80k ish today.
( assuming bookies did not ban or restrict you )
But such style would probably attract an increased number of the above
sorts and less of the sorts we prefer as clients.
Positive tick points in our book may be
- some experience not gullible greenhorn newbies to racing punting.
- longer term thinkers
- pragmatic and realistic expectations not pie in sky dreamers.
- ideally some self thought ability that will assist them getting more
out of the messages than the tip of the ice berg so called official tips alone.
A Week Worth of Messages
Sometime in free news I will include a recent race as a sample of style.
A little bit different this week I have for you instead the last full week of messages in a pdf.
Going against conventional tipster marketing I will go out of my way to point out
to you that not every day is a good day. See last Saturday for example.
It was a bit of a dog day. Such stuff should not be unexpected in the future.
It is natural statistical scatter in action.
The pdf is worth a glance however should you wish to give yourself
a better feel of life as a full member here.
The service is a bit unusual and strange compared to a standard simplistic tipping service.
Picking A Past Race To Waffle About
Which race bit of race analysis will I pick from the pdf to waffle about?
Well returning to devious tipster norm it will be the one
with the biggest price winner of course.
Tiltilys Rock from Friday 17th.
Yup it was a good winner in the analysis section
but I am more interested in the general thought train lessons.
The interesting thing about this one was the market drift.
It was 8/1 at 10 am when Guy sent his message.
It drifted out to an SP of 20/1
On betfair the BSP was circa 30/1
One lesson it teaches is how racing markets can fluctuate
significantly and often irrationally between one point in time and the off.
In theory one can see the ability of the horses as pre set in stone.
Market odds are then down to the perceptions of humans.
Humans are not 100% cold hard rational 100% of the time.
As a crowd they can be influenced by their sources of information.
Picture a toin coss in an imaginary world where there were three radio
stations advising on the toss. Each station has one third of the listeners.
If two stations say "heads" then the end price for heads will likely be poor
and tails is where the long term value will lie.
Extra impact here as well may come from the copiers.
The will seek to follow the more comfortable path
of copying the majority and thus will depress further the odds on said option.
An emotionally more lonesome path is that of the selective contrarian
who lies in wait till he feels the majority are a bit wrong about something.
This Tiltilys Rock is also a useful one for pondering what you may have done yourself.
eg Let's say you had bet it early at 8/1 and later 20/1 was available to you.
Most would probably have been on at a BOG price.
If so perhaps just letting it ride as was for a somewhat
surprising bigger payout may have been your choice?
IF however one did not have the luxury of BOG
and were sitting on 8/1 that may be somewhat annoying.
You would be chiding yourself for jumping in too soon
and vowing to do a better job of sensing direction of market shift next time.
But should you leave it as is or bet it again with extra stake?
Probably normal human behavior here would be to smell conspiracy theory against you
and not seek to throw more good money after bad on the drifter.
Often I guess such thinking will indeed be correct on the day.
There would however be alternate schools of thought.
Assume for example that you had done your home work
and were confident enough that the original 8/1 offered value.
If that is true then the 20/1 is very very good value.
The whole idea of card counting at blackjack is to vary stake
when the deck offers value. Big stakes when value is there.
Minimal stakes when it is not. Maths and time then takes care
of your increasing profit. ( Sadly favourable maths is non optimal
defence against the casino heavies in the back room. )
Or from a sports betting perspective Kelly Theorem
very roughly states that for a given strike rate you increase
your stake according to the degree of edge calculated.
So the mathematical driven value pureists would see such a drift
as a time to increase stake due to extra value above their true odds figure.
Thinking would not be on the single day but to positive impact on bankroll over 1000 bets.
Being honest with you I am not sure where exactly on the fence I sit myself.
I can see the mathematical argument for stake increase but I can also
see racing as NOT a game of cards or roulette. Sometimes a big drift will indeed
be irrational human behaviour. Sometimes it may be a signal of new information
coming into the market that suggests the positive plan for the horse
will not be today.
Personally typical of myself in such scenarios may be to
see the mathematical argument for stake increase but then
have my heart bottle out of it for emotional fear with my heart
trying to argue back at my head with some mathematically
spurious reasons to justify its action.
Anyhow this whole idea of markets fluctuating with time
is one reason Guy may suggest he prefers self thinkers.
In ways an optimal service would be in real time.
Guy could be advising that to bet on market prices that very minute.
Semi sound theory but then I ask are you available at 4 am
when he is an hour into his analysis work for the day?
Not saying you will deffo get stuff at 4 am but you would need to be
available to receive it at 4 am just in case.
And you would need to be available all day just in case later stuff
was made good by a fluctuating market.
I think only a very small majority would appreciate such a live service.
Instead we have the flawed and imperfect idea of a daily message at around 10 am each day.
Over the course of the day many markets will remain steady enough others will go a bit haywire.
Other factors could be late non runners.
Guy will often like something each way in an 8 runner race at 10 am
but won't nominate it as an official tip due to the risk of a non runner
blowing apart the frame of the race for each way.
Another consideration can be strength of markets.
He may assess a weaker value claimer for example and
find a bit of decent edge in it but won't official tip it
as it at 10 am it is likely to be a very weak market.
Most services don't even consider such stuff.
In many ways the service here and elsewhere are theoretically flawed in nature.
Well any so called "tips" that is.
A tip is just a single point in time judgment.
Good analysis research and reasoning has longer lifespan over the day.
So if someday you ever do join up here yes by all means follow the simpler tips.
But be happy to think for yourself a bit as well as the day rolls on.
Myself talking about flaws or constraints in the whole concept
of a 10 am message time in an ever fluctuating landscape
is said so that you can better understand real world constraints
of a racing analyst.
IF you understand the constraints and flaws then perhaps you will
be more confident to veer away from clearer instructional
official tips and more into the zone of taking analysis and
forming your own end opinion.
Remember you yourself may now have extra info not available at 10 am.
eg Example 1 - Guy was warm about a horse at 8/1.
Closer to the off you know of the extra value at 20/1
Would you upgrade it for yourself to strong value bet?
Example 2 - Guy was warm about a hoses e/w in a later 8 runner race. Now in the shows
good odds are still available and with no drop outs the significant danger of a non runner
there at 10 am is now gone. Danger diminished will you now punt it each way?
Example 3 - Guy discusses a more minor race clearly likes something but talks about weak markets
and does not officially tip it. What do you do later when decent odds are still available to you.
A - don't think about backing it as Guy did not file it in an official tip box
or
B - understand market bending potential in weak markets if selected for clear cut official tip action.
understand why Guy can judge something as value at 10 am but not official tip it.
Then make your mind up to back it as you can get a bit of weight on in the shows at a decent price.
Example 4 - Guy makes strong argument against some short priced favourite.
In his message he picks out something to back against it.
You yourself like laying on the exchanges. What do you do?
A - Don't lay it as Guy wrote about backing it and variance from instruction is wrong wrong wrong.
B - Understand Guy will not advise lays on the service as official bets. At 10 am betfair markets are weak.
Back bet's will be spread and absorbed across multiple bookies where all client money
for a lay presented in a big pretty blow will arrive in betfair at one point in time and will heavily distort
the market very quickly. Understanding why he does not advise lays officially gives
you solid reason to ignore instructions and to lay instead of back an alternate.
We here are a bit unusual I guess.
Many will pitch to gullible fools with messages
of "no need to think"
Our message of "a bit of self thought ability will be useful too you"
is not quite so palatable.
It's sort of like the choice of
Eat a big of crisps or make yourself an omelette?
I am no dietician and I have certainly munched a
few bags of crisps in my time but I suspect
5 years of omelettes would leave me better
off than 5 years of crisps.
That's what my head says anyhow.
No doubt my heart would be
highlighting the often mis understood nutritional benefit
of a bag of pickled onion monster munch.
Better shoot.
I have talked myself hungry.
Hope to see you in for Saturday