In today's newsletter

1 - Service Info
2 - Grand National Tip
3 - Grand National Stats
4 - Bookmaker Declared Insane

1 - Service Info

We are now officially into the flat season and the change in season
has also brought with it a few minor changes to the service here.

The first is a minor timing change. Guy's message will be sent a little later
than NH season as races tend to start later in the day.

So for those of you interested in the Saturday Daypass
Buy cut off time is now 12 noon with 12.30 is send time.

The second change is in message format.
The old Message Highlights section has gone and is replaced with
a new section called Optional Account.

Best understood by example I guess
so see a copy of Guy's Aintree day 1 message at the link below.

Some decent winners and how they were arrived at as you can see.

2 - Grand National Tip

I mentioned last week about the possibility of sending you
this years National Analysis and Tip from Guy.

That I will now firm up as a yes.

The rough lay of the land on Saturday is that I and full members
get the message from Guy between 12 noon and 12.30.

I then send the full thing to day pass buyers.

After that I pull out the single Grand National race
and send it to you on the free newsletter.

1 pm may be a reasonable estimate of send time.

Note however that just because I send it at 1pm
does not mean that is when it will arrive in your inbox.
Your email company may throw a wobbler and delay
it to your inbox. Such stuff does happen.

So to hedge you it will also go up on our blog
at around 1pm.

No tripe from us re Guaranteed Winner of
The Grand National or the likes.

It is a tough tough race to get the winner on.
More so a case of Guy using research, logic and
the magic sauce of his experience and gut instinct
to find a likely winner at value odds.

3 - Grand National Stats

Guy sent these out to full members earlier in the week
He also sent them similar for multiple other Aintree Festival races.

I know some of you do like the challenge of picking your own.
Researched stats such as the below simply help guide decision making.

The papers and press will be full of Grand National Stats and Trends.
Most of them regurgitating the same sort of hackneyed stuff as each other
all tempered to make it an easy read for the masses.
Below you will find a few unique angles the average newspaper reader
will be unaware of.

We do have clients here who have been with us for over a decade
of membership. One reason for that is that Guy not only works very hard
to research stats that can provide unique edge. Another of course is
that his day of race messages also discuss how individual horses match up
to them.

It probably suits the majority not to have to cross reference
stats against individual horses themselves.
Wait for the end tip on Saturday if that's you.
Others amongst you however want to challenge and glory
of finding your own answer by yourself.
The stats are a useful extra tool if so.

Grand National Stats

Aintree 4.15 Saturday

Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap)
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (7yo+) 4m3f110y

* The Grand National has 19 renewals since 1994
* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season also underperform
* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season
* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled
* The more runs a horse has over 21
* The more runs he needs that season
* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse passes other trends
* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 22 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* I'd not want an English horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 22 winners were absent this many days
* 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25
* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses second in the National had the following absence
* 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23
* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 19 of the past 23 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven't won since 1940 and few finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* Horses aged 8 need looking at
* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds
* Horses aged 8 haven't the best recent record
* If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
* Be aware some horses are younger than their age
* If Foaled after the day of the race they are really under 8
* All recent 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
* Those foaled in Mid April and Beyond are not officially 8
* Bindaree - Party Politics - Corbiere are the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early the year they were born
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with some confidence
* Class is important in a National Winner
* 12 of the last 13 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn't been tested in higher
* I'd argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* 22 of the last 23 had raced in Graded Class before
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* Again I make the point he could be seen differently
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form
* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run
* One past race he didn't jump past the first fence
* He had really only had 20 career starts
* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L'Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight
* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs
* 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
* 8 of the last 13 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start
* 19 of the last 20 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* You want a decent Jumper
* 13 of the last 14 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* This was the only statistic last years 66/1 winner failed
* I wouldnt rule a horse out on this statistic
* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter
* I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
* No exposed horse won doing that
* Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Every recent winner has ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
* They won 14 of the last 21 renewals
* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases
* Seasonal Debutants should be avoided
* Not having headgear is preferable to having it
* Most winners had under 2 wins that season
* Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
* 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
* The horse with 2 runs was Ballabriggs in 2011
* 1997 winner Lord Gyliene also won more than once that year
* The overall record though does favour under 2 wins
* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham
* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup
* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup
* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
* Don't Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H'Cap Hurdle
* Ideally I'd like good chase form in a big field
* Ideally I'd avoid horses that were Novices last year

4 - Bookmaker Declared Insane

I have looked at this.
Then looked at it again.
My conclusion is that Bet365 have gone insane.

They are offering 50% of your Grand National
Each Way stakes back up to a whopping £125 max.

( Ponder backing at 365 and laying back
on Betfair to construct a favourable position )

This is NOT an offer for new customers only.
In fact new customers are barred from it.
It is more so a present for their existing customers
who were with them before April 2nd.

So if you have no 365 account yet..sorry you can not take this up.

You can however position yourself to get future existing
customer only offers from them by setting up an account.
With £200 of free bets on offer to new accounts openers
things are not all doom and gloom.

Anyhow a big thumbs up to 365 for this one.

One of my own pet hates in life are companies whose
sales telephone number is always picked up in seconds.
The support number for existing customers however
often results in tedious time on hold listening to elevator
music due to lack of staffing.

It is refreshing to see some strong focus on existing customers
instead of the usual bookie focus on new customers only.

Go read the full terms on the 365 site.
See it and all other offers they have
under the Services / Promotions menu item.

What To Do Now?

A - Saturday Only Access

Comprehensive Saturday racing coverage for a one off £3

Guy's strongest advice for the day is very unlikely to be in the National.


B - Join The Full Service Proper

Join for a month ( under refund guarantee ) for daily racing advice.


C - Wait For The Free Stuff

Grand National email will be sent Sat circa 1pm
but note it will be on at same time
in case of email delivery woe.

Anyhow I hope the National treats you kindly.

My missus will be on whatever horse is white in colour.
That's her Grand National wonder system.
( easy to spot on the tv she says )
Pity me if a white one goes in as I will
spend the year to come in misery having to listen to her crow
"Who's Da Tipster In The House"

Best Wishes
Site Admin

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