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A few Items below

#1 - A Hat Trick Of Saturday Horses?

#2 - Exchange News

#3 - Great St Wilfred Analysis

 

 

A Hat Trick Of Saturday Horses?

Guy is aiming for a hat trick of official bet

Saturday winners this weekend.
 
Make a Challenge won on Sat 3rd @ 5/1 advised price
 
Stone of Destiny won on Sat 10th @ circa 15/2 advised price.
 
His mission for this Saturday is to make it a hat trick of three in a row.
 
If you have not already done so feel we would welcome you on board
with us for this Saturday via
 
 
 
 
Full messages for the above two horses are available at
 
and
 
These old messages are decent demos of service style and nature.
 
Note that Guy will research and assess multiple races each day.
 
What he likes best he will discuss near the top of his message.
 
 
Account Bets and Highlighted bets are what he would call his official bets these days.
( exact names and style has evolved a bit over the years )
 
On no official bet days he will still try and steer clients to what he likes best on the day.
 
 
Guy himself would say strange stuff for a so called Tipster.
He would suggest that the most important fundamental thing
is all the detailed research and that clients own long term good
would be best served by them taking that research and incorporating
it into their own decision making and adapting it to their own
outlooks and desires.
 
Take for example the idea of research that reveals that
a short priced favourite has some serious statistical flaws
and is way too short a price than it really should be.
 
That research would provide the core fundamental
logic and reasoning for having a punt in that race.
 
In such a scenario Guy would layer his own personal taste
upon the core fundamental.
He may zone in one or two competitor horses
to bet win or each way against said favourite.
 
But is that they only possible way to do stuff?
Do clients have to act like sheep and copy
everything to three decimal places?
 
Of course not.
Over 1000 similar scenarios alternate viable approaches might include
 
- laying said favourites to win
- laying said favourite to place ( you would win less often but win more when correct )
- perhaps picking just one prime competitor to oppose with even if Guy suggests two
- increasing your strike rate by also covering an extra horse of your own choice.
 
Assuming the core fundamental research of poor favourite identification is correct
then each of the above personal styles should be long term viable.
 
Note how it is possible for individuals to have a large degree of control
over average strike rates to suit their personal temperament.
 
If adopting the style of picking just one single horse on the nose
then one could expect a lesser strike rate but good odds on winners.
 
Or on the other hand dutching three against a poor favourite will
stimulate more winning days / greater strike rate but one's net
odds on winners will be less.
 
Neither is right nor wrong.
But one may better suit one's personal taste.
 
Some tipsters can get very pompous in their marketing
about their own brilliance at precise tips.
 
Guy is quite different in that respect.
He judges himself foremost as researcher and analyst.
Tips he may say are just an artificial fabrication
layered on top of what is the core fundamental
important thing which is of course the detailed research.
 
Hopefully the above quick example about what to do with
a poor favourite will help you see what he means by such
highly unusual utterances.
 
It is really just a case of separating things out into two.
 
#1 - The core research to find edge in a market
#2 - more so personal choice about how to structure
       a personal bet to take advantage of said edge.
 
IF you can grasp that core concept then you will be
one step further along the path of away tip seeking
sheep and towards being a punter who can layer
self choice and self thought on top of information provided.
 
 
We would have clients here in both camps.
Many are shrewd self thinkers who extract
personal value from all the research and will
use it to attack multiple daily races with.
 
Others may perhaps more quickly hone in on
only official bets or if not an official bet day what Guy
suggests he likes most that day to give themselves
roughly one decent bet per day.
 
Guy has never liked the classic concept of a simple tipster
where clients are supposed to act like brainless sheep.
 
Perhaps it is a punter evolution and advancement issue.
It is natural enough to assume that a total newbie
will be blinkered to seeking simple tips alone.
This will be accelerated of course by high hype marketing
from tons of spots pushing simple tips.
With advancement, experience, personal evolution
and some battle scars to reflect o,n appreciation
for core fundamentals of good research starts to increase.
 
Go ask a professional bookie odds compiler for example
as to the sort of thing they may value most.
Or go ask Warren Buffet if he values get rick quick penny share mags
or assistants that do detailed company research for him.
 
The so called official tips here are really just the tip of the ice berg.
 
They have done well long term alone.
 
Someone was asking me recently about percentage of bank staking.
ie always betting a fixed % of ones bank so one can compound up.
 
He wanted to know what the optimum % was.
A quick play with my spreadsheet churned out that 6% staking
would have turned an initial £1k in Oct 2014 to circa £40k today.
 
But that was cherry picked perfect figure applied with hindsight.
A more cautious 2.5% would churn out growth to ballpark £12.5k
 
What would your ISA have done over similar time?
 
Such figures are semi spreadsheet land however.
In the real world returns for each client will differ.
For an individual horse one might take slightly higher or lower odds.
Some clients might be barred at bookie X. Others at Bookie Y.
Bookies may also of course not be happy to take a stake as big
as one spreadsheet suggests.
Some clients may accept a bookie website staking limit response.
Others may seek higher limits in shops or even organise
a few assistants to help put bets on for them.
 
The whole concept of so called official results is somewhat silly.
More real word is what benefit can one do with information provided to you.
Especially true here with so called official tips being just the tip
of the iceberg of the overall service.
 
No doubt we could get a stampede of clients if we plastered the site
in big print high hype £40k growth figures.
 
But that is not our style.
Normally on this newsletter we demo research and analysis.
 
Why? - because it helps attract the sort of semi self thinker client
that Guy more so enjoys working with.
 
Life is sweeter if you can spend it with like minded souls.
 
I suspect it is an attitude the general world will
see more of in the future than in the past.
Internet based freelancers or small businesses
who are good enough to have services in demand,
will be more prone to have desire to choose who
they work with. Quality of life will be more so of a
driver than cash alone. Bigger business laden with
debt and seeking expansion will no doubt
continue to see consumers as marks from which to extract
cash and they will care less about the individuals and
more about cash alone.
 
 
 
Exchange News
 
 
Just a quick alert in case you missed the recent news.
Matchbook have just totally revamped their commission structure.
It used to be a slightly complicated system with different rates
depending on whether you took an existing price
or set a price you hoped would be matched.
Historically also they applied it to stakes not winnings.
Historically there was a 2nd charge of 15% of any commission
to account for point of consumption tax in the uk.
 
 
The new structure is a simple 2% commission on your net winnings in a market.
They told me today that the uk 15% government point of consumption
tax is absorbed already with in that 2% rate.
 
eg say you make a net win of £100 on a certain race
they would charge 2% commission on that.
So £2 for them and £98 profit to your balance.
 
 
Who Will The New Structure Disadvantage?
 
Matchbook users who would typically bet or lay a single horse with a straight bet.
The old rates were a bit lower than 2% for such a scenario.
[ But 2% is obviously better than the 5% one can get charged elsewhere ]
 
 
Who Will Be Advantaged?
 
Those who like to bet then lay or lay then back the same horse.
ie Trader types who seek to lock in profit
from a horses price movement.
Some traders may be the sort to chase prices on individual horses.
Others however will risk their cash putting up odds on multiple runners
in the hope that they can create a green book later as prices fluctuate.
Market makers if you like.
 
The old way was pretty unattractive to them as they would get
charged both on their back stake and on their lay stake
irrespective of the result of the race.
Now it is just a small charge on their net market winnings.
 
I can envision myself that this increased appeal
to trader types could have positive impact
on volumes put through the exchange.
If it assists in boosting liquidity levels further
then that will have positive kick on impact
for the single horse straight bettors.
If more market makers are attracted
then there will be more competing against each others
and that won't be a bad thing for those seeking a
good price on an individual horse.
 
 
So Matchbook are now pretty much the same as other
exchanges using the core concept of net market profit
as the basis of their usual commission charge.
 
If perhaps you had past discounted them as a viable option due
to their commission structure based on stake, they could
well be worth a re look.
 
Double check their own site for the full facts.
 
==>  MatchBook
 
 
 
 
 
Great St Wilfred Early Analysis
 
This is a  bit of early work Guy sent out today.
He has more work to do on it before his Saturday message.
But still ..  it may amuse, inspire or assist you to see his thoughts so far.
 
 
 
Saturday

Great St Wilfred

Ripon 3.15

8/1 Summerghand 10/1 Poyle Vinnie
10/1 Dakota Gold 10/1 Muscika 10/1 Lahore
10/1 Great Prospector 10/1 Richenza 11/1 Gunmetal
12/1  Belated Breath 12/1 Gulliver 12/1 Lake Volta
12/1 Citron Major 16/1 George Bowen 16/1 Venturous
20/1 Ice Age 20/1 Staxton 25/1 Lancelot Du Lac
25/1 Intisaab 25/1 Reputation 25/1 Vintage Brut

20 runners declared

All 5 on the provisional shortlist run

DAKOTA GOLD 8/1
SUMMERGHAND 8/1
LAKE VOLTA 12/1
GUNMETAL 12/1
GULLIVER 16/1


GUNMETAL has drawn 3
He has topweight rated 101
That will not be an easy task
No past winner won with 102 or more
His best numbers are on fast ground
Never won off his current rating
Do we want a horse off topweight
Who is not happiest on the soft
I don't see enough positives now

DAKOTA GOLD has stall 15
Ripon 5f 6f 7f races
Ground softer then good
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Have a 0-30 record since 2012
He is an exposed 5 year old
He's raced just twice in 10 months
To be fair the 2016 winner
Had the same characteristics
The Draw and lack of recent runs
Would put me off him a bit

SUMMERGHAND is drawn 5
Some observations about him
He has a 0-10 record in Class 2
Never won off this mark before
Most but not all of his wins
Have come in single figure stalls
He is also unproven at Ripon

LAKE VOLTA is a 4yo
Very exposed now with 35 runs
Never won off his current rating
His 5 career wins
Came in fields of 8 4 6 3 7 runners
No winning form in a big field before
This is an interesting angle

Class 2 Handicaps
Any time of year on turf
5f 6f 7f
Horses aged 4
Over 29 career runs
Beaten last time
Carrying 8st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-75 record in them
LAKE VOLTA has this problem

GULLIVER is drawn 18
Ripon 5f 6f 7f races
Ground softer then good
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Have a 0-30 record since 2012
That may not be a helpful draw
Never won on softer than good

Niggles about all of these

Will start the race again tonight
See if I take a different position

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