Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
Hi Folks
 
I have pinched a few pieces from mid week Full Member messages for you.
 
#1 - Cheltenham 2025 - Quick Comments
 
AND
 
#2 - Heroes Handicap Hurdle [ Saturday at Sandown ] - Ante Post Statistics
You can find those a little below.
 
 
As for this weekend's coverage on the service here well
Saturday's Heroes Handicap Hurdle will be one race definitely covered.
Sunday's Edinburgh Grand National another.
 
Guy will also have one eye over in Ireland.
 
He said:
 
"Saturday and Sunday the Dublin Festival
Plenty of Leopardstown races
that have some tempting angles
Will be covering several of these
"


Want to come on board with us
for detailed day of race analysis?
 
The Saturday only option is available at it's usual spot of
 
 
Or the better deal right now is on the Weekender Service
that covers BOTH Saturday And Sundays.
Today is the last day of January and our January deal
for the Weekender service is still ( just about ) live.
However there is no need to do a Cinderella and overstress about the
strike of midnight at the end of Jan 31st.
It will likely be Monday morning before I drag my lazy behind
into doing the admin work to take the deal page down.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheltenham 2025 - Quick Comments


Cheltenham 2025

Looming ever closer now

Still too early to get involved




Supreme Novice Hurdle

Pricewise have come out
With their ante post choice

Romeo Coolio 6/1

Feel the same way right now
Covered the race in January
Feel the best current strategy

£8 Win Bet Romeo Coolio 6/1
£2 Win Bet Salvator Mundi 4/1

This is a big week for the race
Trial at Leopardstown on sunday
Several contenders will run there




Champion Hurdle

Constitution Hill has won again
Still not convinced he the same
Racing Post Rating of 150 there
Long way short of his old figures
Likely to end up as a saver bet





Triumph Hurdle

Friday March 13th

7/4 Lulamba, 3/1 East India Dock, 8/1 Hello Neighbour
10/1 Lady Vega Allen, 10/1 Sainte Lucie, 16/1 Palladium,
20/1 Charlus, 25/1 Mondo Man, 33/1 Stencil

First look at this race

The market leaders
Have been out and won

Lulamba impressive at Ascot

East India Dock was as well

Racing Post Ratings show
East India Dock is 11lbs clear

Lulamba is raw and lighter raced
He's just had the 1 run in months

26 of the last 27 winners
Ran within the last 48 days
Lulamba will be off 55 days

East India Dock in contrast
Does have other advantages
And he has more experience

Many are salivating about him
The numbers he produced

I take the view
Not a time to rush in

He beat nothing fancied
Not from a powerhouse stable
And he had 11 runs on the flat

Aside from the 2019 winner
Who was lucky to win a bad renewal
Horses with more than 3 flat races
Have not won this is a long time

East India Dock is one of those
You can fancy him to win ante post
But confidence will drain on the day
When his challenges are clearer

Major trial looms this sunday

Leopardstown 1.50

Spring Hurdle

Horses from this race
Won the Triumph hurdle
In the following years

2012 2013 2014
2016 2018 2021
2022 2023 2024

The 3rd 4th 5th favourites

All have their prep races

Hello Neighbour 10/1
Lady Vega Allen 12/1
Sainte Lucie 14/1

Any could yet emerge from this











Heroes Handicap Hurdle Ante Post Statistics

Saturday February 1st

Sandown 3.07



7/1 Henri The Second 8/1 Shoot First 8/1 Titan Discovery
10/1 Blaze The Way 10/1 Idefix de Ciergues 10/1 Sole Solution
12/1 Plaisir des Flos 12/1 Red Dirt Road 12/1 Deep Cave
14/1 Dartmoor Pirate, Fortunedefortunata 16/1 What A Johnny
16/1 Good Luck Charm 16/1 Hauraki Gulf 20/1 Flight Deck
25/1  Gaye Legacy 25/1 Hermino Aa 25/1 Major Fortune
25/1 Blenkinsop  25/1 Goshen 66/1  Great Name That
66/1  Lucky One

Last 13 winners

6 had over 17 career runs

7 had under 10 career runs

None had 10 to 16 career runs

2024 winner - 4 runs and 3 over hurdles
2023 winner - 27 runs and 10 over hurdles
2022 winner - 22 runs and 5 over hurdles
2020 winner - 24 runs and 19 over hurdles
2019 winner - 17 runs and 9 over hurdles
2018 winner - 5 runs and 4 over hurdles
2017 winner - 9 runs and 9 over hurdles
2016 winner - 6 runs and 4 over hurdles
2015 winner - 30 runs and 25 over hurdles
2011 winner - 4 runs and 4 over hurdles
2010 winner - 4 runs and 4 over hurdles
2009 winner - 36 runs and 17 over hurdles
2008 winner - 4 runs and 3 over hurdles

No renewals in 2021 2014 2013 2012

Last 21 winners of this race
ran within the last 63 days

No winners were aged 10 or more
All 34 that tried have been beaten

This is a race for lightweights

Go back to 2005
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record since then

Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a poor 2-87 record in this

Every past winner
Had at least 4 career starts
Horses with fewer are 0-14

The Lanzarote Hurdle
Run 3 weeks ago at Kempton
Is a significant trial race for this
2017 2018 2019 2022 winners
All came from that handicap

Horses with 1 run this year
Have won 4 past renewals
They were aged 6-7-8
Absent over 4 weeks
Came from 2m 6f or more

Every past winner of this
Came from between 19f and 24f
Horses from handicaps
Over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-32 record in this

Horses from a Novice Hurdle
Have a 0-17 record so far

Every past winner
Started 16/1 or less last time out

9 of the last 10 winners
All came from Class 2 or higher
The exception last year had 4 runs

Go back to 2006
Horses from Class 3 or lower
With more than 5 career starts
Have a worrying 0-63 record

Horses aged 6
Won 7 past renewals
All ran within 8 weeks
All had 11st 4lbs or less
All had under 20 races
And under 12 hurdle runs

Horses under 8 years old
More than 12 hurdle races
Have a 0-24 record

Horses with over 12 hurdles
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-39 record in this

Horses with over 19 races
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-39 record in this

Horses aged 7 or more
Over 14 career starts
Absent more than 14 days
Have a weak 1-90 record
The only winner in 2015
Those absent over 30 days
Have a winless 0-49 record

Horses running within 33 days
Beaten 20 + lengths last time
Have a 0-30 record in this race

*******************************************************



 
 
 
 
Best of luck
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

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