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Hi All
A bit of a random mix of stuff in this weeks free newsletter.
#1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle Advance Look
#2 - Guy helps losing spread punter out of a hole
#3 - Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Analysis
And of course the usual memory jog about the Saturday Day Pass
at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
for those of you interested in racing analysis for Saturday.
#1 - Supreme Novice Hurdle
This is a bit of mid week comment from Guy to full
members about the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.
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The market is completely wide open
We have a dodgy favourite in Moon Racer 6/1
Who is 2 years older than the vast majority of winners
Nobody at this stage seems to have a clue about the race
Yet we only have 10 weeks to go
This is either a very poor year for 2m novice hurdlers
Or the best of them have yet to show their hand
This is what should happen
In the Next 53 Days
A horse aged 5 or 6
Will come out and win a 2m hurdle race
This hurdle race will be in Class 3 or higher
When he wins that race he will win at under 10/1
Chances are it will be one of these days and tracks
It might not be these days but they are the most likely
January 14th Punchestown
January 21st Haydock
February 9th Thurdles
February 11th Newbury
February 12th Leopardstown
February 18th Ascot
February 26th Naas
A couple of days after he wins
This horse will be given a Racing Post Rating
That Rating will be 149 or higher
The horse or horses that do the above
Should include the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner
I will have my eye on this situation
And will report relevant findings when they happen
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#2 - Guy helps losing spread punter out of a hole
A bit of real life feedback from a full member
received mid week. To me it sounds like he
should give up the spreads and focus on
traditional betting instead.
Do note one thing he did well however.
When placing his self selected double he
went to the trouble of placing each one
at the bookie with max odds.
That trouble will have boosted his winnings
by a fair degree compared to the common
more lazy approach of just placing
all legs at a single bookie.
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Evening Guy
RE "It was a very nice profit if anyone bothered"
I bothered :)
I was pretty demoralised yesterday (Tue) morning after
doing my nuts on
the spreads yet again the day before, to the tune of almost
4 figures :(
I was once again on the verge of taking a break from betting
altogether,
but I thoroughly enjoy your column and the insights it provides,
so it feels
grossly unfair if I were to give up your column due to my own
personal
incompetence on the spreads! :(
Like you and others I was slightly disappointed that Fastnet
Blast failed
to get home and complete the account bet double, but as you
say, we nicked a small profit.
However, I'd also staked 4 x £3.00 e/w doubles on
Gworn (7/1) / Idder (8/1)
coupled with Cavalieri (12/1) / Jan Smuts (28/1).
They weren't all staked with the same bookmaker,
as I went for the best price combination on each double.
I also had split-stake win singles on Gworn & Idder
and split-stake e/w singles
on Cavalieri and Jan Smuts, along with enough of a saver on
Burnside to
get my entire single stakes back in the latter race.
The rest as they say, is history.
Unfortunately, my profits from yesterday felt like a get-out-of-jail
card for my previous day's efforts,
rather than a very enjoyable win from a bet I crafted myself
(albeit with your analysis),
but that's the way this game goes.
Anyway, I just wanted to say a sincere thank you for your
analysis, yesterday & every day.
Cheers
P.S. After today's results, I'd say you're running pretty
hot at
present, with another 3 winners from 4 races previewed!
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#3 - Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Analysis
This is actualy from today's message.
ALLFREDANDNOBELL Guy highlighted
as his best bet from his multi race analysis for today.
I know some of you won't care about the reasoning behind winners.
But many others amongst you will always be seeking to learn
and self improve.
If so perhaps some of Guy's thought train below may rub off
on you
and assist you in a future Juvenile Maiden Hurdle race you tackle
yourself.
In many walks of life a sound strategy for improvement is to
hang around
with people further down the road than your good self.
I recall in my London days playing pool with my missus.
Facing little competition I'd mess about and even play with
one hand to even it up. I doubt it improved my pool.
But others times I would play with a mate called Tony.
Tony was a complete shark that had almost made it on
to the pro snooker circuit. He was a good punter as well
and last I heard of him he was compiling golf odds for a bookie.
He had won a fair bit off sideline income hustling pool round
the London pubs.
He was at a different level to the average pub player.
A bit like a handicap plot his full top gear was usually
reserved till after the money went down.
Playing against him and watching him I was learning.
Eventually I learnt enough to beat him..on rare occasion.
Anyhow getting back on track with the racing
here is Guy's work on today's Juvenile Maiden Hurdle.
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ALLFREDANDNOBELL has the easiest task
That is why I see him as my best bet
He does have a few red flags I don't quite like
But a lack of opposition makes up a bit for that
W e t h e r b y 12.35
11/4 Bob´s Boy, 3/1 Allfredandnobell, 7/2 Dusty Raven
7/2 Gregarious, 7/1 Mr Globetrotter, 14/1 Calarules
66/1 Foible, 100/1 My Brown Eyed Girl.
This is a 2m Juvenile Maiden Hurdle
Any of 6 should fight this out
3 of them have hurdling experience
3 of them are hurdling debutants
If I look at hurdling debutants
Who come from a career on the flat
And who have had under 6 career starts
I find a 7-100 record
All 7 winners ran over at least 1m 3f or more last time
Those that came from Flat races over 10f or shorter
Have a 0-50 record so far in similar races
That 0-50 stat could be blown at any time
But until it is I would avoid these horses
GREGARIOUS has this problem
Hurdling debutant with only 4 career runs
Coming from a mile race on the flat
MR GLOBETROTTER also fails this 0-50 record
BOB´S BOY is a hurdling debutant
I don't see a good enough reason to risk him
He is after all sired by sprinter Showcasing
A sire with a stamina index of only 6.8f
A sire who has only had 1 national hunt runner
And that horse was beaten 96 lengths in that race
There must be a stamina doubt about BOB´S BOY
Especially when you consider he has 81 days absence
He doesn't bring much backclass to the race anyway
I think we should stay with the experienced hurdlers
CALARULES hasn't set a high enough standard
That leaves the two other hurdlers
DUSTY RAVEN and ALLFREDANDNOBELL
Both do offer more than the hurdling debutants
DUSTY RAVEN Troubles me more of the two
January to March
4yo Hurdle races over 2 miles
Horses with 1 Hurdle race
Running within 2 weeks
Beaten last time out over hurdles
I ran this profile and found a 0-66 record
DUSTY RAVEN fails this 0-66 record
All the hurdlers that raced within 14 days
All had either at least 2 hurdle starts
Or had a longer absence
This puts me off DUSTY RAVEN
Can't be completely sure of his stamina anyway
I see ALLFREDANDNOBELL as safer
I prefer his 37 day absence off the track
Doesn't set the highest of standards
But he has placed in his first hurdle start
And takes on horses with possible flaws
Selection
ALLFREDANDNOBELL 4/1
Each Way
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Best of luck over the weekend.
And if interested in Guy's analysis work for Saturday
you can book in for a one off £3 at the page below.
Note you need to get booked in before 11 am Saturday.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Mick
Site Admin
[This is an online webpage copy from our free
horse racing newsletter that we
converted to a webpage]
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