Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Guy dodged a bullet on Wednesday.

ROI DES FRANCS at Punchestown he originally liked.

Some finer detail research however highlighted serious flaws.

He said "What bothers me is his trainer Anthony Mullins
His hurdle record with horses from bumpers is 0-22
His hurdle record with Unraced hurdlers is 0-53"

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ROI DES FRANCS ran a decent race but did not win.
Just as the trainer stats suggested would be the likely outcome.

It's a fair example of how researched facts and figures
can act as a guide that helps you make better decisions.

Having researched himself out of that horse Guy
nominated MR DIABLE in the 1.05 at Punchestown
as his strongest advice for the day. That won.

Anyhow you have learnt something useful
so far about trainer Anthony Mullins.
Not betting his unraced hurdlers is what the stats
clearly indicate. £1 saved by not losing a
bet is worth exactly the same as £1 won.
To £1 million pound level stakes not betting him under
those conditions would have you £54 million
pounds better off. :)

I know many of you however prefer to hear about
what TO back as opposed about what NOT to back.

Inspired by Guy's comments about unraced hurdles
I did a little research of my own.

It's just a little micro system really that indicates
a couple of trainers to follow in November when
they put out a horse having it's first ever run in a hurdle race.

They are not super big name trainers, backing a horse with
zero hurdle form is not an obvious thing to do but they do
better than most at preparing them to win first run and have
a good strike rate.

Most system vendors spin systems as your path
to a profitable future.

I myself prefer to think of any past profitable system
as an indicator of historic zones of value
in the market.

Any simple system approach always carries with it
the danger of future alteration of market sentiment
to it's key criteria.

ie strike rate can remain constant but odds can drop
due to increased market demand.

Result..what was once profitable no longer is.

If you missed it see Guy's old piece about systems at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-systems.asp

Anyhow now I have that little caveat about systems out of the way
here is what I found.

I looked at the past 4 years. ( not too long and not too short )
And only for the month of November.
I looked just at uk hurdle races.
I looked only at horses having their first ever run over hurdles.
I then looked at how each individual trainer fared.

Then my human eye kicked in.
First of all I wanted reasonable strike rate.
I wanted a fair amount of past runs.
I wanted net profitability.
I also weeded out trainers whose positive profit
was skewed by one huge priced lucky winner.

I settled on two trainers.

Miss E C Lavelle and J J Quinn

The overall record would have been 14 wins from 38 selections.
So a decent 36.8% strike rate.
The 55% place strike rate is also fair indicator
that their first time hurdlers are well prepared
and actually trying as opposed to being sent out
for a bit of public schooling.

Net profit at SP over the four Novembers was about 48 pts.
That averages out at about 12 pts each November.

Obviously that is an SP so profits at Betfair or Smarkets would be higher.

Out of interest qualifiers have only ever arisen in
November and October in the past.
( by December their hurdlers have all had one run over hurdles)

Octobers are past profitable too but I have just given
you November stats as November is ahead of you and
October is behind you.

Anyhow excuse the unusual system approach this week.
Guy himself would never back systems blindly.
Systems and stats however he uses as part of
his taking a race apart in detail style.

It is much tougher to do than simple system style stuff.
But if you analyse a race in detail asking the question
"where is the value in this unique event" then you
have a level of protection simple system backers do not have.
ie future over betting of key criteria can change past profitable
into future unprofitable despite a constant strike rate.

Use stats & systems as part of an over all assessment
of an individual race and you can attempt to highlight
which horses are value on the day and which are not.

This shifts you targeting to horses that you feel are value at today's
odds as opposed to targeting horses with traits the market
historically under estimated...but may not be doing so today.

Guy chooses the hard road of long daily hours of detailed
individual race research because he believes it the right road.

We have many clients here with us for 5 to ten year duration.
During that time many a system style tipster has arrived in
a blaze of marketing hype before slowing slinking off again
leaving clients with empty pockets behind them.
The worst of them put max focus on marketing impact and
little thought to future viability.

You have probably seem it yourself before and will keep seeing it in future.

There are too many in the world attracted by the idea of a quick buck.
That's a criticism applicable both to many tipsters and punters alike.

My own gut cull is that longer term success is more likely if you

A - accept responsibility to do some work yourself
and
B - associate with others of similar mind set.

Anyhow mad rant over for another week.

Guy is already researching Saturday's cards as I type.

Our Saturday Daypass option is available in its usual spot
at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

There are a few past samples there that demo rough style of his messages.

Or if your interest extends beyond Saturdays only
we do of course have a more regular monthly membership
for more daily action.

Just look for the join option on our website.

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


 

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