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In last weeks newsletter I mentioned that Guy's
Account and Selections category bets combined were
running at a profit on turnover level of 36% at Starting Price
or an incredible 58% if you took early prices with the
advantage of BOG.
This is since he introduced his new message format back in
Oct 2014.
The figures would be higher again this week if
I bothered to work them out. His sole tip
to fall into the Account or Selections category this week
was a winner advised each way at 6/1.
So if your own personal preference is for
selective stuff with a large degree of edge
a focus on these alone may suit.
We are happy to sms these to full member clients
for no extra charge if desired.
This can suit well those with busy work lives
with little time to read the email with the highly detailed
reasoning.
The detailed reasoning on the other hand is a big benefit
to those with ambition to improve their own selection picking
abilities.
You know yourself there.
Is it just about the cash for you or do you also want to
learn?
These selective high edge advices however are
just the tip of the ice berg of the service.
See last Saturday's message here to demonstrate that
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-saturday/horse-racing-jan-24.asp
The Profile and Preview section typically covers multiple
races daily.
You could perhaps think of P & P as a write of of stats
and opinion of races Guy
assessed while seeking a standout strong value candidate worthy
of elevation
to a firm top of message advice. Stats, reasoning and opinion
are not
really something you can produce a simplistic profit and loss
record for
despite being of great value to many.
Guy however did make a subtle change to his P & P back
in Oct 2014.
Nothing rocket scientist. Just a simple addition of a summary
box
where he lists his favourite picks from his Profile and Preview
section.
These are more classically tip like.
On my to do list is to go back to the start of them in Oct
and
tally it all up as I do now for the more selective top of
message tip action.
Just to give you a bit of something to work off on the profitable
or not debate
see below an email I got in from a client here a few days
ago.
He did his own report from a betfair bsp point of view.
==========================
I have done some of my own analysis on your back data
from the archived files.
I have noticed historically the message format chops and changes
regularly but,
since 29th October it appears to have been set more uniformly.
The current message is so far the clearest style and is easier
to
understand how you like to categorise your bets.
The way I see the current message format is that you
have regular 'preview' bets,
then the occasional 'selection' bets, then the ultra rare
'account' bets... 3 tiers if you like.
I like this style and I have collated some level stakes
P&L data since the 1st November...
If I were to do all bets level stakes win only to betfair
sp less 4% comms,
( I pay 3.5% currently).... I have the following results from
your messages...
NOV 14 -
Account -1.43
Selection +12.84
Preview +2.06
TOTAL +13.47
DEC 14 -
Account 0
Selection +4.62
Preview -3.23
TOTAL +1.39
JAN 15 -
Account 0
Selection +5.37
Preview +46.94
TOTAL +52.31
These go up further if you do level stakes in the place
market aswell
on all horses that are 1.8 or bigger to place at betfair sp.
November improves to +23.
December improves to +16.5 and January improves to +61.
I have always bet level stakes regardless of price.
Level stakes profit is the absolute crucial key to how I bet,
how I make a profit, and how I manage my bankroll, which
is why I am keen to see how your bets stack up if you were
to bet level stakes.
The way I see it is why make an already complicated game even
harder
by messing around with staking plans and mixing win, place
and ew bets,
forecasts and God knows what else all together, I like to
keep it simple :-)
==========================
What's that total then according to him?
Circa 100 pts net profit to level stakes in a few months
if adopting the win and place strategy he proposes
with his keep it simple style approach ?
I'd say myself there is a large degree of
nonsense to the whole concept of official
results.
Par for the course with most tipsters is to quote
ricky prices from tin pot bookies very few clients would
get on at for more than a few quid if at all.
Yet it will sit there on their official results page to a
£200 advised stake.
More important perhaps is the question "are you as an
individual winning?"
We have some clients who can still use most bookies.
We have some clients bookies are still happy to offer bog
to.
On the other hand many others have long had BOG removed as
a perk
and can't get more than a few shekels on at an early bookie
price
unless they channel their bets through friends and mates accounts.
Many will end up on the exchanges.
In that light.. official results can be a bit of a nonsense.
:)
So the above Betfair
stuff.
NOT official results.
More so actual feedback from an individual client here.
And his results may even have been improvable on with the
lower 2% commission at Smarkets
or by increasing stakes on the higher edge Account and Selection
category advices.
What Now For You?
Full membership proper I'd suggest is optimal for most semi
serious punters.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
The Saturday service makes more sense if you are not free
during the mid week.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Do note the 12 noon cut off time on Saturday however.
or just stick to the free newsletter if you prefer.
I am sure we may have the odd Cheltenham focussed snippet
in it over the month to come etc.
I know Guy is planning to give full members some of his advance
Cheltenham research work during February.
I will see what I am allowed to pass on to you.
Best wishes and enjoy your weekend's racing
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
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