|
We are heading into another Saturday.
There is flat racing at Sandown and Doncaster.
National Hunt is available at Perth, Plumton and Chepstow.
There is a bit of Irish racing as well which Guy dips into
on occasion.
Where Guy will go tomorrow for his message I don't know.
Most likely he will select to examine in detail the ten or
so races
that interest him most from across various meetings.
He tends to look for some strong statistical points that
highlight to him
that the market has made a bit of a mistake.
His words to full members today were
"I am going to pull out the stops for a stronger
bet for Saturday."
If you are a Saturday only style player then book your day
pass at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
If however you prefer profitable racing advice on a more
daily basis
then join the full service.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
STRONG RESULTS
His firm tips are going very well longer term.
I have just completed a bit of an audit on them in fact
that researches results going back to the end of Oct 2014.
This was the date Guy introduced the current message format.
A super brief summary of service format might
be that there are three official tip sections.
1 - Account Bets
2 - Selections
3 - Profile & Preview Bets
In addition to that there is
4 - Profile & Preview Section - a final section of research
and analysis write up covering multiple races.
In ways Guy's initial research carried out while
seeking quality sufficient to merit an upgrade
to sections 1, 2 or 3.
Some self thinking clients make great use of #4
If you just want no thought required simple value
tips however stick to 1,2,3 above.
Account Bets and Selections just treat as exactly the same
thing.
These are fairly selective but with a high profit on turnover.
Profile & Preview bets are much more common but have
lower profit on turnover.
Going back to end Oct 2014 which was when he introduced the
current
message format I make it
67 tips under the Account Bet and Selection categories.
25.8 pts profit
Profit on Turnover = 38.5%
Profile & Preview Bets - 368 of those
35 pts profit
Profit on Turnover = 9.5%
Those assume Guy's early price with BOG
Probably higher would have been achievable in real life as
Guy's early prices
are more so rough market odds than the absolute maximum odds
quote
possibly available at the most tin pot of bookies.
Betfair of course as well can pay out more a lot of the time.
An Equation For Profit
One interesting little light technical betting concept is
that
you can arrive at the same spot via different routes.
A very simple little equation for your net long term profit
is
Profit = Turnover * Profit on Turnover
Thus you can arrive at the same net profit figure
via a low turnover at high edge or alternately
via a higher turnover at lower edge.
You can see this reflected in the two styles above.
Both end up in about the same level stakes spot over six months.
But they take two different style routes to get there.
Obviously perfection would be high turnover at high edge.
Pragmatically however clear high value propositions
come less frequently that medium value opportunities.
When you become a client here a mid range simple
staking approach for following the advised tips might be:
100 pts total bank
Stake 1 pt per Profile & Preview Bet and
2pts on Account & Selections ( due to the higher selectivity
and edge )
If so the initial 100 pts would now be
100 + ( 2 * 25.8) + 35 = 186.6 pts
That's quite a fair percentage growth in bank that over less
than six months.
How would it have fared sitting in your building society savings
account?
Is it any wonder quite a few of our members have been with
us
here for over a decade through various forms and evolution
of the service.
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
*
ADVERT
Why give 5% of your exchange cash winnings away when
you can instead pay a mere 2%?
Join Smarkets
today , bet £10 and if it loses they will refund it
for you.
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
*
Not Just The Name Of A Horse
I know many tipster services give nothing bar the name of
the horse.
Perhaps they are just pin stickers that have no true reasons
for backing something.
Perhaps they don't want expose their hand as knowing little
by writing garbage
justification to tips that is easily refuted.
A common zone of praise that Guy gets is that he does produce
solid reasoning as to why he is backing something.
The upside of reasoning is that many clients can learn from
it.
It's a bit like the loaves and fishes I guess.
Soak it up daily and your own outlook will start to change.
You will start to see different things when you look at a
race.
Your antenna will be tuned to a different wave length than
before.
It will take you a step closer to 100% self sufficiency.
A single line name of horse only style tip has no chance
of improving you in such a fashion.
It's like most walks of life I guess.
Who you rub shoulders with on a day to day basis will have
impact on you.
Your pace of development will be impacted depending on whether
your mentor
is a sharer of information or a withholder of it.
Wednesday's advised winner was LYDIATE LADY
Below you can read Guy's reasoning for it as shared with
full members here.
========================
C a t t e r i c k 2.00
11/4 Takafol, 4/1 El Che, 4/1 Soft Love
11/2 Lydiate Lady, 15/2 Zebelini, 9/1 Elizabeth Ernest
14/1 Pancake Day, 20/1 Special Code, 25/1 Arousal.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* There are 30 similar races in April
* 20 of these came like this one at Catterick
* Look at the 30 races
* Look at horses that dropped from 6f races
* When doing that this season all 62 lost
* TAKAFOL fails this 0-62 statistic
* ELIZABETH ERNEST fails this 0-62 statistic
* SPECIAL CODE fails this 0-62 statistic
* TAKAFOL comes from a 3yo maiden
* Horses doing this have a 0-30 record in 30 races
* I try and avoid horses with 3 runs at this track
* Recent winners of this had 5 5 3 6 6 8 5 4 10 12 runs
* They can win but not very often
* TAKAFOL also fails the 0-62 statistic from a 6f race
* I am not interested in TAKAFOL
* SPECIAL CODE comes from 6f
* You don't want that according to my angles
* Horses from recent 6f races are 0-62 so he's out
* ELIZABETH ERNEST also fails this 0-62 statistic
* She is a filly absent 16 days
* ELIZABETH ERNEST was beaten over 15 lengths last time
* My statistics fail ELIZABETH ERNEST
* Fillies have won 13 races
* 7 ran within the previous 2 weeks
* The other 6 were seasonal debutants
* If you look at the other fillies
* Fillies that raced this year but not within 2 weeks
* You find a poor 0-64 record
* SOFT LOVE absent 33 days is a filly that fails this 0-64
stat
* EL CHE absent 33 days is a filly that fails this 0-64 stat
* She is by Winker Watson a sire I like to avoid
* They don't seem to train on as 3 year olds
* This sire is 1-42 with 3 year olds none won at 5f
* All horses by Winker Watson at 5f are only 1-62 anyway
* AROUSAL is a filly first time out
* With 5 runs plenty of fillies won with that profile
* None however came from 7f as she does
* She has also been sold very cheaply over the winter
* His current trainer is Ron Barr
* His record with 3 year olds absent over 4 weeks is 0-53
Shortlist
* ZEBELINI is a filly first time out
* There is a filly winning first time out with 4 runs
* Not a negative on that alone
* None though that did it won from a 6f race
* She has had a recent upgrade in stable
* I don't think she can be ruled out
* PANCAKE DAY has 14 career starts
* He was beaten 8 lengths 2 weeks ago
* I need to find a similar profile to shortlist him
* I can find a female horse that won with this profile
* If I look at Male horses with 12 or more runs
* Those beaten over 6 lengths last time were 0-3
* Not an exact match so not like a winner
* I wouldn't completely rule him out though
* He was hampered last time out
* He probably needed the run too after 8 weeks off
* I failed him last time on an absence statistic
* His trainers record with 3yo's absent 8+ weeks are 0-54
* Now he has a recent run he's a player
* LYDIATE LADY is a 3yo filly and the right type
* She has a run within 2 weeks in a 5f handicap
* Fillies with this profile have a 6-46 record
* Those beaten under 3 lengths last time were 5-25
* LYDIATE LADY looks a big runner on her profile
I respect ZEBELINI a lot
I like PANCAKE DAY as well
I fancy LYDIATE LADY more
Catterick had 24 races over 5f last year with 7 + runners
Horses drawn 1 had a 0-24 record
If I go back to 2013 horses drawn 1 were 1-41 in 44 races
PANCAKE DAY is drawn 1 which I see as a shame
With a better draw I may have selected him first
Because of that I am with LYDIATE LADY
LYDIATE LADY 4/1
Each Way
========================
Don't Forget The Private Forums
If you do join as a full member I'd recommend following the
welcome email
advice about setting up a message board user name so you can
access these too. It's not an extra cost thing. More so an
optional simple second step of selecting a message board username
for yourself.
There is many a good race analysis discussion that goes on
in there.
Not between idiots.
But between highly knowledgeable racing judges.
Last Friday for example long term member Tanman made a post
about a market pricing rick on an unexposed 2 year old.
Tanman is a big sire stats analysis style bloke.
His sire stats were screaming at him that this horse could
be a flyer over 5f.
The trainer jockey combo was a positive signal too.
He felt the market had got it wrong.
Result - Blood Moon won at 40 BSP
And just to crystal clarify .. the private forums are a full
member proper only thing. The site is unfortunately not set
up technically to grant forum access rights to Saturday day
pass members.
JUST JOIN UP
Any how if you have never joined here as a full
member then you should do some day soon.
Take the plunge and you may never look back.
DB from Sheffield for example joined for a year a year ago.
I emailed him this morning asking if he wished to renew or
not.
Inside 30 minutes he emailed back saying he had taken another
year.
It did not take him too long to make his mind up about that.
His 12 months experience of the service as a full member made
it
a super easy decision for him.
Try it monthly perhaps at first.
You can always switch to Annual at a later point if you so
wish.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
Best wishes and enjoy your weekend's racing
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
|