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It's been another good week for full member clients here.
Guy tipped an official loser last Saturday but came back
strong mid week to boost longer term net profits to higher
levels.
By my reckoning if you had started at the end of October
when
he started his new three tier message style format and had
bet
1pt on each of the more frequent Profile & Preview category
tips
and 2 pts on the more selective but higher edge Account Bet
and
Selection category tips the total bank would be a smidgen
short
of having doubled over the six months.
A more aggressive than that approach to staking would of
course
have exceeded the bank doubled point.
Official results to any degree of precision I'd say are all
a bit of a nonsense.
Some people may get more via their usage of exchanges such
as Smarkets.
Some might be barred by certain bookmakers due to past winning
histories.
But I guess such people will be more prone to bet in bigger
stakes
and thus every pt of profit has a bigger £ value to
them.
Clients know if they personally are winning or not.
Some of our clients have been with us here continuously through
various evolutions of the service for periods in excess of
ten years.
What's your best guess as to why they stick around so long.
Are they winning or losing?
Are You Busy Mid Week?
I know a lot of you are busy with work each week.
We did make a small change lately that can help.
Quite simply all official tips Guy now sends via SMS to
any full member that wants them.
The email message is obviously much more detailed.
But if you are time pressured and just want the super
quick executive summary of firm tip action an sms that finds
can be an efficient time way to use the service.
Dig into the emails perhaps at the weekend when you
have more spare time.
Just note the SMS is there for Full members
if such a thing suits your lifestyle.
Hidden Depths
Clear cut simple tips are all that many clients want.
But they are in ways the tip of the ice berg of the service
here.
Guy provides research and thought on many races daily.
Strong edge he does not find in every race he researches.
It's a bit like panning for gold I guess.
Quite a bit of sieving work over multiple pan fulls needs
to be done
before a glint of gold can be found.
He still writes up his research and it is an added resource
that many find useful.
The Private message boards can provide both amusement and
education as well.
Normally I take a Fight Club style attitude to the boards.
ie "What happens on the boards stays on the boards".
I will breach that policy this week however just to give
a little example of
how more experienced members of the community can help teach
and educate
those still on the learning curve.
This is a summarised copy of a bit of recent board banter.
Tanman
I dont' normally get involved so early with these 2yo races,
but i noticed a couple things which may point to a winner,
Blood Moon
This Trainer/jock Combo won this race last year
with an odds n Fav, yet they seemingly have
the stable second string, or have they?
The jock GC is the stables first jock,
The Sire Equiano has already had 2
winners this year, 1 today in Harvard Man
The Sire is all Speed having won the kings Stand at
RA, The Dam, is a 2-y-o 5f winner, the breeding says all speed.
Just think at 18/1 is too big, even if it places pays
better than the fav.
Now a 3yo winner, Desert Force at Newbury,
Sire on Fire
Blood Moon went on to win at 40/1 BSP
CoffeeDodger
I've just won £220 or thereabouts for a fiver e/w
Massively in profit for the day!!
I have to say Tanman, that is genuinely one of the most amazing
pieces of winning research I've ever seen. Utter genius. What
more can I say?
A few days later Barry C thought he had found something similar.
Barry C
Thorkhill Star runs in the 5:05. Ran there as a 2yr old and
is from the same sire as Tanman pointed out Equiano (Blood
Moon). Could we see a repeat?
Longer term member Coffedodger however took time and effort
to highlight why he believed this was not likley to be a repeat.
Coffedodger
I'm afraid we're not comparing like with like Barry.
Equiano was a very high class sprinter over 5 and 6f. His
sire index is 5.8, the damsire 6.5f --
Blood Moon
2-y-o (01Jan13 b g)
Equiano (FR) (5.8f) First Eclipse (IRE) (Fayruz (6.5f))
The thing Tanman spotted was the likelihood Blood Moon would
be a speedy, precocious 2 year old based on breeding on both
sides of his family. There was also the narrative about the
trainer/jockey combo. Throw in the fact the horse was an unraced
two year old and there were valid reasons presented by Tanman
which indicated the market hadn't got a handle on the horse
and there was at least potential for it to run much better
than the market expected and maybe nick a place.
That market was also probably influenced by the trainer who
wasn't expecting much on the day, but fortunately Tanman hadn't
read that, so his theory wasn't tainted by the opinion of
others and happily the horse won like a 25/1 shot should!!
Thorkhill Star is a 3 year old running in an 8f HANDICAP.
He's run several times, he's weighted according to his ability,
he's raced once already this season and was 33/1 in a small
field. That run showed he's moderate and he's not expected
to improve for that run. There is plenty of stamina on the
dam side which shows he can get the trip, but he's just not
very talented. His official rating shows he needs to improve
by at least half a stone to win this and none of his rivals
improve at all, which is very unlikely in a competitive race
involving several horse that have already shown they are better
than Thorkhill Star from fewer racecourse appearances. Finally,
he comes from a trainer whose horses are generally well found
in the market when they are expected to go close. He's 25/1
and there are seven other runners priced at less than half
his price! In the Dundalk race the price was far less significant.
In fact, the bigger the better. In a handicap like this, it's
really not a good indicator of value unless you, I, Tanman
or anyone else could come up with a reason why the horse is
any better than a 25/1 shot. I very much doubt anyone can
on all sensible criteria.
The real value of sire stats. is in young, unexposed horses
running off level weights. They could be anything, but breeding
is a useful thing to know as it gives clues as to whether
the trip/surface will suit, but often punters price the market
on the reputations of trainers and often this is wrong. That's
why plenty of races with unraced and once or twice raced horses
are won by horses at huge prices. This applies both on the
flat and over jumps and in bumpers.
Once horses have had several runs and the handicapper starts
to assess them, the potential breeding advantage they had
as juveniles is largely lost to carrying too much weight,
whether conditions suit or not. And, as their career progresses,
they produce form which can be compared to previous runs and
the market is therefore much more able to gauge the odds of
them being well handicapped or badly handicapped on the day.
A huge weight can stop a good horse from winning, but less
often than a light weight allows a bad horse to win. If a
bad horse isn't interested or lacks ability, it barely matters
how little weight it carries. Alan's mention of Yeeoow yesterday
is a good example of a horse who had everything going for
him but in the end, even with a plum draw and virtually no
weight to carry, he didn't want it enough.
None of the above means that TS can't win. Anything is possible
in a horse race, but if this race were run 25 times, it's
unlikely TS would win any more than of them (and he may well
not win any in 30 similar race) as he needs so many things
to go right for him and wrong for the others.
In this case the market does have a handle on the horse.
25/1 is about right.
To sum up. I won't be backing it!
New Negatives Section On The Service
Just today Guy introduced a new sub section of the message
for negatives.
Being the first day of it he explained the ideas behind it.
I am reproducing them here so any who take up full membership
or Saturday day pass will be more clued up about them should
he include some in tomorrow's message.
New Negatives Column
About time I got this up and running.
I have decided to grade these bets 3 ways
Grade 1 Negative
Grade 2 Negative
Grade 3 Negative
Grade 1 Negatives
These will be the strongest and horses that
I would advise as a Lay. I warn you I don't do
much laying myself and I won't be giving any
horses to lay a big prices. I doubt any will be
more than 2/1 but they are my best negatives.
Grade 2 Negative
These Negatives will be strong enough and
a Negative in this Grade will mean that there
is enough of an edge to have a bet. Maybe a
bet on one of the other horses in the race as
an alternative to a lay on the Negative.
Grade 3 Negative
Simply a lower strength negative. Little more
than a horse I would not choose in my preview.
Don't get hung up on these
They are nothing to do with any account
They are entirely up to you and optional
I will start this today and it's place in the
message will be at the end of the P&P bets.
What Now For You?
Full membership proper I'd suggest is optimal for most semi
serious punters.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
The Saturday service makes more sense if you are not free
during the mid week.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Do note the 12 noon cut off time for Saturday however.
or just stick to the free newsletter if you prefer.
Best wishes and enjoy your weekend's racing
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
PS RaceBets
told me earlier today they will have a 2000 Guineas offer
on their promotions page tomorrow. It is
open to both new and existing customers.
"2000 Guineas Giveaway - Free Bet Offer: If your horse
finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the 2000 Guineas, you will receive
a free bet for the 1000 Guineas! Free bet amount matched up
to a maximum of £/€25. Day of race market only.
Free bet will be credited within 3 hours of the 2000 Guineas
race settlement. First bet in 2000 Guineas market qualifies
for this offer. Stake not returned with free bet. Win/Win
part of each way bets qualify. Fixed odds only."
Their promotions page is actualy quite packed. Go take a
look.
And my own quick tuppence worth on Racebets. I like the rough
idea of it. They focus almost 100% on horse racing. A lot
of high street bookies these days appear to want to pack their
shop with automated machines. Their web sites are the same
with casino and games. Such computers are for mugs. They can
not be beaten by skill. So a thumbs up to RaceBets
for setting out to provide a focussed service for horse racing
punters. Racing is a sport where knowledge and effort can
give the punter edge over the bookie.
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