I am feeling a bit brain dead today.
Sleep deprived.
My lesson learned is not to organise a sleepover for
four extra thirteen year olds and then let them consume
a ton of sugar late at night.
It must have been 3:30 am before they finally calmed down.
I know it is usually you who falls asleep during one of these newsletters.
This week however it might be me.
So what's on the agenda racing wise this weekend?
Well one race Guy has his eye on for Saturday
is the Great St Wilfred Handicap At Ripon.
Further below I have copied in for you some of his early
prep research work. Usual starting point style stuff.
Come race day message time he will have done the extra work
to match horses to stats, forming conclusions and pondering potential bets.
In his messages to full members here earlier today Guy commented that
"Racing's been limited this week
Which is not entirely surprising
Post Goodwood and Pre York
The quality has dipped this week
Saturday message tomorrow
Aiming for an account bet winner
Will be a much stronger message"
Should you fancy coming to join us for Saturday
or perhaps even the Sat and Sunday Weekender option via
I hope Guy's aim is true this weekend as it often but not always is.
Last Saturday's Account Bet The Highway Rat at the Curragh
ran more like a donkey committing highway robbery of backer's funds.
The Account bet from the weekend before ended up a non runner.
So hopefully something more pleasant is due.
With regards to non runners, whilst logging that recent one in my results spreadsheet
I became curious as to what percentage of Guy's Account Bet horses ended up as such.
My gut instinct thought low.
Guy keeps a close eye on such stuff right up until he sends at around 10 am.
Were he to send say at 7pm the night before the number would be higher
as many drop outs occur overnight and early morning.
I crunched to numbers however to find out.
If we go back to Jan 22nd 2022 as a starting point
[ a date of an historic message format change ]
There were 294 total hoses cited in his Account bets.
6 Were non runners thus that is about 2%.
Here is a bit more detailing the % that won, lost or placed
along with average odds.
|
Total |
Average Odds |
% |
| NR |
6 |
8.75/1 |
2.0% |
| L |
153 |
8.5/1 |
52.0% |
| P |
78 |
7.6/1 |
26.5% |
| W |
57 |
5.1/1 |
19.4% |
It is semi useful data for gaining a feel for typical Guy Account bet horses.
Worth noting that placed horses above could be win bet losers
or each way advised that reclaimed or even better, made money.
The above just summarises how the horses ran and not
the precise nature of the punt on them.
The base spreadsheet I used contains much more data than the above.
eg details of dates, odds, horses etc.
Also a section where one can play around with % bank staking.
For those of you who like looking at such stuff here is a link to the spreadsheet.
Great St Wilfrid Handicap Early Look Stats
Ante Post Statistics
Saturday August 16th
Ripon 3.20
Great St Wilfrid Handicap
The last 28 winners
Won off these ratings
88 89 90 92 88 99 97
100 98 96 94 94 99 87
95 94 100 92 98 99 80
98 96 83 85 75 101 83
Horses rated 102 or more
Have a 0-56 record in this
The last 20 winners of this
Were all rated 87 or higher
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a poor 0-61 record
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-34 record in this race
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 14 days
Have a poor 1-98 record
Those with 9st or more 0-36
Horses aged 3 are 3-50
They all ran within 3 weeks
They were drawn 6 7 7
Horses aged 4
Won 9 of the recent renewals
Those absent over 21 days 0-26
None won with 9st 9lbs + (0-10)
25 of the last 27 winners
Ran within the past 3 weeks
Those that did not were 3-104
Those aged 3-4 doing this 0-35
Those with 9st 2lbs + are 0-35
From Class 3 or lower all 35 lost
Horses absent over a month
Won 2 of the 24 renewals (2-70)
Both winners were 5 year olds
Those with 9st 2lbs or more 0-29
The longest absent winner
Won with a break of 105 days
Horses from 5f races
Have a 4-94 record
Those absent more than 14 days
Have an overall 0-42 record
Horses from 7f races
Have a poor 1-63 record
That was a 4yo back in 2002
Horses from class 4 or lower
Beaten last time out are 0-26
Absent over 14 days are 0-16
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 0-21 record since 2000
Since the stalls renumbered
Winners came from these stalls
16 6 9 19 17 15 19 10 13 8 4 9 10 16
Horses drawn 1-2-3 are 0-42
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