A couple of tit bits on the free newsletter today
#1 - Obligatory Plug
#2 - July Cup Stats
#3 - Race Analysis Thoughts
#1 - Obligatory Plug
Let's get this out of the way first.
It is Saturday tomorrow and you are welcome to book
in for our Saturday Daypass for a mere £3.
Pay as You Go in style there are no monthly bills to worry about cancelling.
#2 - July Cup Stats
Guy sent these out to full members yesterday.
Just a bit of phase 1 early stat research work
for the July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday.
If you are the sort who likes
to unravel races yourself I hope they assist.
Saturday July 11th
Golden Horde 5/2 Sceptical 4/1 Hello Youmzain 5/1
Khaadem 7/1 Threat 8/1 Oxted 14/1 Brando 16/1
Judicial 16/1 Equilateral 20/1 Marie's Diamond 20/1
Sir Dancealot 20/1 Namos 25/1 Lord Of The Lodge 33/1
Shine So Bright 33/1 Southern Hills 33/1
Horses aged 3-4-5
Dominate the July Cup
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 1-69 record since 1997
Go back to as far as 1939
Only 1 horse won aged 6 or more
That horse (2006) was fortunate
Helped by a significant draw bias
There were 12 past winners aged 3
They had the following career runs
5 15 5 8 5 5 6 7 5 7 7 8 4
No 3yo has won with over 15 runs
Most 3yo winners had under 9 runs
Horses from 5f races rarely win
They are just 1-42 since 2004
No 3yo filly has managed that
Had the following runs
5 15 5 10 8 18 14 16 5 14 10 18
6 37 5 12 5 20 7 18 5 10 7 7
Very few horses win this
With more than 20 career starts
They are 1-55 record in recent years
No past winner came via handicaps
July Cups since 2011
When there were under 18 runners
Winners were drawn 12 2 4 6 7 8 10 11
#3 - Race Analysis Thoughts
This is a copy of the reasoning for Guy's main bet on Friday.
It is followed by some additional thought train from myself.
Perhaps, just perhaps it may induce a little light bulb
flicker above your own head that is of longer term use to you.
5/2 Harbour Front, 3/1 Clearance
4/1 Flat To The Max, 5/1 Kensington Art
6/1 Roman Stone, 12/1 Indian Vision.
Not really my kind of race
Just wanted to mention a sire stat
HARBOUR FRONT sired by Iffraaj
INDIAN VISION sired by Iffraaj
Horses sired by Iffraaj
Have won 2m races on sand
Those on grass though are 0-21
Horses sire by Iffraaj
With under 8 career starts
Have not yet won a race on turf
That was over 1m 5f or more yet
They are only 1-60 over 12f or more
HARBOUR FRONT fails this with 4 runs
INDIAN VISION from the same sire
Rejected with 401 days off the track
He fails this angle as well
He is a 4 year old
He has 4 career starts
He has 132 days off
Handicaps over 2m +
Class 3 and lower
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 6 career starts
Absent more than 48 days
Have a modest 1-54 record
Only 1 horse with his profile
Has ever won a 2m handicap
That was Sign Manual in 2013
ROMAN STONE has a recent run
But a heavy defeat is off-putting
When giving weight to everything
FLAT TO THE MAX has 183 days off
If you look at his trainers record
His horses absent over 68 days
Have a miserable 1-196 record
KENSINGTON ART is a dilemma
Don't like his sire over 2m races
But my breeding stats disagree
And he also has two recent runs
CLEARANCE is my preference
£8 Win Bet CLEARANCE 11/4-3/1
£2 Win Bet KENSINGTON ART 3/1- 7/2
Ok So a well argued for winner today for Guy with CLEARANCE
Is there any bigger picture stuff worth taking away from it?
Some quick thoughts pop into my own head.
I don't think it would be correct to try and pigeon hole every single
tip into some neat box to categorise reasoning behind them.
Sometimes analysis will be rooted in positive researched feelings about a certain horse.
The core value on the above one however was probably rooted
in the research that indicated serious objections to the market favourite.
Back from a few days camping with the kids this week I will use the analogy
that a betting market acts a bit like an air mattress.
If you press down too hard in one spot then another spot pops up too high.
If you can identify poor value favourites then by deduction
value is certain to lie elsewhere in the race.
More true that statement if you can take best prices across multiple
bookies and exchanges for a close to 100% book
instead of restricting yourself to the higher over round prices of a single operator.
Finding a poor value favorite is a happy days position from which to progress
to a who to back decision.
From this point it is also worth pondering that from
this solid base there are many viable ways to proceed.
Think instead of a single one off race, 1000 similar poor favourite scenarios.
Multiple strategies could turn an net profit over those 1000 races.
#1 - lay the poor value favourites to win
#2 - lay the poor value favourites to place
[ here you may expect to win less often but you win more when you do win ]
#3 - backing your favourite opposition to win
#4 - Other weird and wonderful stuff such as covering a few against the favourite
whether that be win or each way.
I do not believe there is such a thing as a 100% "you must do it this way" style answer.
I believe there are merits in all approaches above over the longer term.
Personal taste will come into play.
The #1 to #4 styles are less important than the foundation of value in the market judgment.
Some people may argue for the simplicity of the laying approach.
Thinking can then stop at the identification of the poor favourite stage.
Others may say that a lay is somewhat inefficient.
A lay of the favourite is in effect a dutched bet on all it's opposition.
Some may be rags or also poor value not worth backing.
Better they may say would be to concentrate stakes
on the horses or horse deemed maximum value.
Strike rate may be lower ( than laying the favourite ) but long term profitability higher.
As I said before I do not believe there will be 100% correct answers.
Personal taste style and desires will probably have more impact on an individual than any
three decimal places from some spreadsheet.
Guy's own style in such poor value favourite scenarios
would typically be #3 or #4 from the above.
He is more so a backer at heart than a layer.
He will oppose a poor value favourite
with one or other horses he feels worth backing.
Win or each way decisions will be influenced by the frame of the race.
Today's for example was only two places and not a great race for each way.
From the above I hope you picked up on that I feel it a good idea
that you as an individual think for yourself a bit.
You know yourself better than anyone else and
if presented with a string of poor value favourites you
would be best positioned to judge how you yourself may use them.
Quite a few of our longer term members are like that with Guy.
They don't care too much about his staking detail.
More so they take the general jist of his analysis
and adapt it to suit their own temperament and needs.
Some today may have
A - Followed his two horse covering stakes to the letter
B - Said "Guy you are bit big girl's blouse with your insurance horse . I am all in on Clearance alone."
C - They may have ignored back advice and just layed the argued against favourite.
Guy does not put up lays on the service but some of our clients will read his analysis with lay seeking goggles.
Perhaps in short my key points of thought might be
- Note the importance of finding a root to value in a market.
Find that and the exact final style of bet or tip is a secondary thing
to which there can be many viable styles or answers.
Individual days matter less than long runs.
- You know your own strengths, weaknesses, likes and dislikes.
Be happy to think and adapt to suit yourself.
Anyhow I better stop the waffle now.
Best of luck and I hope you enjoy your weekend