Hi Folks
Yet another good weekend last weekend.
Full warts and all online copies are at
Saturday
Sunday
Rather than look at the winners instead I am going to
whinge and moan about the one that got away.
The culprit? … Last Saturdays 4.45 at Musselburgh
Guy had covered CANAVAN each way and clients on BOG would have been
pondering bigger than expected payouts after a big drift out to 40/1 SP.
With a sharpish bend close to the start, draw bias is a consideration there.
One of the nuances of draw bias when it is a track configuration bias
[more so than a watering bias], is that the number of runners can have an impact.
It is not rocket science theory.
If there is a disadvantaged side of the track, a race with a lot of runners
will place the worst drawn horse further away from those on the good side of the track.
With fewer runners such differentials are less.
Be careful using bland draw stats that do not account for such stuff.
One of Guy's core stats going into the race was based around races
with more than 7 runners. It led him to downgrade the favourite in the race
with a statistical draw bias black mark.
Minutes before the off all was looking good.
9 runners , a stat ruled out favourite and three places available on our 40/1 shot.
Then disaster struck.
Two horses pulled out last minute.
One refused to enter the stalls.
The other was upset in the stalls.
What it was upset about I do not know.
The high price of hay due to inflation?
Who knows.
Whatever it was, tissue dabbing it's eyes it withdrew
sobbing that it was too emotionally
distraught right now to have a bit of a race.
7 runners went off.
Not the 9 it was a mere few minutes before.
The stat that ruled out the favourite was suddenly technically dud
due to the low runner count.
More key however was that three places were now just two.
Where did Canavan finish?
Third of course.
A great example of the law of sod in play.
I guess clients who played win and place on the exchanges were ok.
There the 3 places were hard set.
Bookie backers however got robbed.
A decent winner in the next race however
meant that the pain of injustice did not linger too long.
Luck does tend to even out over the long term however.
Or the statisticians may suggest that "things revert to their mean"
Some future day we will be collecting in a race
when we really did not deserve to be doing so.
Anyhow if you fancy coming in for this weekends racing analysis
you may book in at the usual spots.
Saturday Only
Weekender Service ( Saturdays & Sundays )