Hi Folks

 

The flat season starts this weekend.

Coats, hats, scarves, gloves  and umbrellas.

Yes British summer time will be upon us soon.

 

I have for you below a couple of snippets about

Saturdays Lincoln at Doncaster.

 

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BLATENT ADVERT !

 

Find links to join the Saturday, Weekender or Full service at

 

These I pinched out of Tuesday's and Today's full member messages.

 

The are quite a few researched stats and figures you may be able

to make use of yourself. However I want to zone in on the primary

discussed horse Midnight Gun.

 

Guy first mentioned it to Full members and backed it himself

when 12/1 back on January 29th.

 

On Tuesday he was still happy enough.

Today Friday however he has more doubt.

 

Is he just a flippy floppy can't make his mind up sort of person?

 

"Nope" I say.

 

With major race ante post such stuff is normal.

 

The astute question is not "who is most likely to win"

but "which horse offers value."

 

New facts come to light over time.

Potential runners dwindle down over time.

Sometimes this can be good or bad.

Was the drop out a serious threat or

was it judged strongly opposable and

at too short a price?

 

For handicaps the official rating of drop outs can then

impact weight carried by runners on the day.

 

Going can change from expected.

The draw as well then is a late piece of data.

 

Odds of course fluctuate over time as well.

 

I can see some Texas Holdem Poker analogy to it all.

 

( two secret to you cards in your hand then five shared in the middle turned

first with a group of three at once [ the flop ] then two single card turnovers )

 

Let's say you are dealt two black kings.

That is the only data you have at that point.

A fairly strong hand and worth a raise.

 

Then comes the flop where three middle cards are turned over at once.

Obviously you would like to see another two kings but fair chance you won't.

What if it is two rubbish cards and an ace?

Should one or more of the others be holding a secret card ace, all of a sudden

they are now beating you with a pair of aces.

Possible it is the ace of hearts and the two others are hearts as well.

If so the chance of getting beaten by a flush has also increased.

 

New data that arises over time should very much so be included in your

assessment and decision making. Sticking to an original decision

out of stubbornness irrespective of new available data can be foolish.

 

Anyhow at this point in time Midnight Gun at the January 12/1 looks a good original bet

on the simple numerical grounds of 12/1 is bigger than today's 17/2.

 

Guy will just let it run with his personal cash.

The more risk averse on at 12/1 could of course lay back

to produce a zero risk bet to nothing.

Or even lay back a bit more to produce a guaranteed profit.

 

But perhaps Guy sees the flop went slightly against him

based on his research today into 4 year olds and weight carried

which shines a bit of negative light on Midnight Gun.

In all honesty he would probably have been happier if he were like

99.9% of other punters and was totally blind to such a stat fact.

But he has done the work after weights were recently set and now he sees it.

 

Over To Guy

 

 

 

 

Best of luck

Mick