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The usual reminder about our Saturday racing option here.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
It was another decent Saturday last week with
Account Bet Slanlough winning well.
Away from the "safer" Account bet
and furhter down the message into
the more speculative zone I myself was drawn to
25/1 shot Aye Aye Charlie who landed a place.
The full message from last week is available here
as a quick demo of message format.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-saturday/saturday-horse-racing-jan-27-2017.asp
A Note About Something New
Guy has added a new almost daily sub section to
his messages he is calling Long Range Bets.
I'd perhaps peg them as a spin off or evolution
of his Future Betting Angles sub section.
Typically ( but not always ) these will be win trebles.
Legs 1 and 2 may be close range with Leg 3
being the more distant Target market.
The so called Target market may get used
several times across different days.
It is a style Guy has used himself on personal betting of his
own.
Key thinking is that a small stakes multiple can result in
quite a considerable sum riding on the end target market.
Perhaps more so than a bookie may have been happy
to take as a straight single on the target market.
His Target market #1 was in fact a horse
he has his eye on for Cheltenham.
Come Cheltenham time if things go well with earlier legs
he may have quite a considerable sum riding on this horse
from a series of original small stake treble bets.
Odds on these treble bets may be highish.
eg 20/1 ish may have been the rough odds on his first one.
So definately to be filed as more speculative.
Guy himself suggested to full members bypassing buying a
coffee each day and instead investing the price of that on his
Long Range Bets.
Strike rate will be lower ( due to higher odds range )
But hopefully over the year to come there will be some big
pay out days.
Nb The likes of trebles often get wrongly maligned as silly
mug bets.
There is actually nothing wrong with the principle of a treble
as long as core fundementals of value are ahered to.
From a mathematical viewpoint a treble can infact
inflate the edge you hold over a bookie if the individual legs
offer value.
The opposite is true however if all legs offer edge to the
bookie.
In that scenario edge to the bookie is multiplied ( compared
to singles )
That is where many punters often go wrong.
ie ill thought as to what is being used for each componant leg
of the treble.
This scenario below is pretty common.
A - Mug Punter Bob decides he will do a treble.
He then walks into the bookie and puts scant thought
into the horses used for each componant leg.
His focus is more so on the question of what
he could possibly win than if there is any value.
B - Now instead ponder how a shrewder punter may approach things.
For starters he works hard to indentify individual horses
he feels offer value as singles. That is his solid foundation.
That done he may indeed bet them as singles
to his normal stakes.
But because he has assessed them as value individually he knows
that a treble has potential to multiple his value edge.
But on the flip side he his also aware that strike rate may
be lower.
If he then does be of the ilk to add a treble investment
it will be staked at a lower than normal stake to account
for the lower strike rate expectancy.
A treble is just a tool really.
It is neither good nor bad in itself.
Long term positive or negative net outcomes
are much more so to do with the
workman that is using it.
A forrester can earn his living with a chainsaw.
The same chainsaw in different hands can cause disaster.
The three primary points of trebles / multiples may be
#1 - understand lower strike rate expectancy needs to be reflected
in staking aggression.
#2 - understand how bookie edge is multiplied up if componant
legs offer value to the bookie.
[ a mug treble punter will lose cash at a faster loss on turnover
rate than if he put the same selections on as singles ]
#3 - understand how tables can be turned and punter edge can
be magnified up above singles edge if there is punter value
in each componant leg.
Note to Self : Do a web future page about this with a worked
example of the figures.
Anyhow I find myself veering off on a slight tangent yet again.
I really just wanted to pre alert you about this new Long Range
Bets section
incase you saw it in a future Saturday or full member message
if you ever join up.
At least now you have a slightly enhanced clue as to what it
is all about.
These Long Range Bets are not forced on any client.
More so they are an optional extra they can choose to use if
they
like the idea of setting up some slower burn potential future
bigger pay days to compliemnt the more normal daily singles
action.
There will probably be more of it mid week for full members
than Saturdays to be honest.
That is rooted in the simple pragmatism that busier Saturday
cards typically give Guy
more than a full days work to research through and analyse.
Mid week he has a bit more spare time to ponder this new Long
Range Bets section.
Grand National
Guy's past tipped winner Rule The World
advised at 50/1 still brings a big smile
to my face remembering it.
He made a quick mention about the
race today to full members with a simple
"The entries were out Wednesday
105 horses currently in the race
Weights to be announced Feb 13th
A race we will spend many days on
I will probably start this race next week"
So some chance I guess that if he is doing
some early research work for full members
on the big race I may be able to pass on some
of it to you on the free newsletter.
No promises but I will keep an eye out
for anything suitable I can pinch from full
member output as Guy progresses his
Grand National research over the months
to come.
This Weekend
Guy is more enthused than normal by the
quality of the cards saying to full members
"Counting down to the weekend
Saturday -Sunday offer a feast.
A mouthwatering group of stars"
I welcome you to book in for the Saturday Message at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
10 am Saturday is the absolute latest to book in for it.
With the Saturday Daypass it is a one off low fee for a single
Saturday.
We do of course have as well the popular monthly service
for those of you who want detailed racing analysis mid week
and
on Sunday as well as on Saturday.
Clients give Guy lots of positive feedback.
I like this super short and sweet one from full
member MR S P in my inbox at 11.54 this morning
"I wont cancel. I love this site"
If only I could learn to be so short and sweet myself :)
Just reply and ask more about full membership
if you are curious and want to know a bit more
before giving it a test with your own eyes.
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
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