Last week I passed on Guy's early thoughts on the
Champion Hurdle where he said
"I ended up having a bet in the race
I backed THE NEW ONE at 10/1 and 11/1"
The subsequent withdrawal of Artic Fire due to training
injury has seen the price shorten to 15/2 bookmaker tops
at PaddyPower today.
Win lose or draw it seems he got a decent price
compared to today's. I hope some of you did too.
Guy himself will probably just let it ride
happy with a decent price.
But of course any time you take a position ante post
and prices move in a fair notch one always has the option
to lay back.
Let's say you followed Guy's lead last week
and stuck £100 on at 11/1
Today you then lay back £105.27 on Betfair
at 5% commission at 8/1 ( or shorter)
That would give you £257 if the horse wins
and a net £0 position if it loses.
So a £257 bet to nothing.
And if your bet was at a Non Runner No Bet offering bookie
that open ups another possibility to profit.
Should the horse not run it is stakes refunded from the bookie
but you still win the lay on Betfair as they are classic ante
where backer stakes on non runners are lost.
To let a good price taken ride or to close it off?
Well both can work long term as a philosophy.
It's almost a matter of personal style and taste.
Guy tells me he paid off his first house with
his straight bet let it ride style.
My own slightly more cautious trade back attitude
helped me gather a decent cash deposit for my own house.
There are many ways to skin a cat as they say.
But strangely I have never read a list of various
cat skinning techniques.
Start at the head or start at tail?
Boil them first perhaps?
Something to google I guess. :)
Is The New One Now A Poor Price?
Well Guy did not think so yesterday
and actually official tipped her to clients
each way. It's a lower price than last week
but we now know there will be no danger from Artic Fire.
PaddyPower and most others are NRNB
on the race which is useful insurance against
a non run.
Sweet I guess might be if current favourite Annie Power
connections decide not to pay £20k to supplement
her for the race and she non runs.
No guarantees of that of course.
The collective wisdom of feedback from you guys last week
would suggest that £20k supplement would be easily reclaimed
by connections if all Annie Power did was place.
It's just a possible zone of positive risk that she may not.
Any how Guy's thoughts of yesterday are below for you.
Ante Post Bet
Tuesday March 15th
THE NEW ONE 7/1
I did a lot of Champion Hurdle work last night.
I threw everything at THE NEW ONE trying to
find a flaw. There are a few well known issues
that have contributed to his reputation taking
a nose dive in recent years. Nothing statistical
that worries me though. If you look at a similar
group of 8 year olds with 15-20 hurdle runs we
find a remarkable record. Plenty have also ran
in past renewals and failed as he has done so
I see his profile as very interesting. His defeat
in the 2015 race is explainable. It was a falsely
run race for starters. The Supreme Novice in
2015 was run almost 3 seconds faster and the
false pace last year hurt his chance. I know he
has some questions to answer but I want him
on the account at 7/1 and I think he will win it.
Is This A Guaranteed Ultimate Banker Bet Winner?
Don't be silly.
There is no such thing as a certainty when it comes to a horse
Guy loses more bets than he wins with his official tips.
But his eye for value means he net wins long term
as you can see on the chart at
Let's think for the sake of simplicity win only.
7/1 is available and assume for the sake of argument
that Guy feels 5/1 is true odds.
If so 5/1 is 5 losers and 1 winner from making the same bet
But to a £100 stake that winner makes a £700 profit.
Deduct £500 of losers and the net profit is £200.
Old Hat to most of you I know but if there are any racing newbies
listening turn the BS detector up to maximum if you ever cross
with someone who tries to tell you they have a horse "guaranteed
What's Happening On Saturday?
On our Saturday Day Pass service Guy will be looking at
several races in detail seeking what he feels are value bets.
He told full members today that the Eider Chase
was one he had done a lot of early research work
And he mentioned to me that his research over 36 similar races
in historic January to March periods highlighted two key stats
shared by all 36 winners.
Only 40 ish % of this years runners pass these two stat tests.
So he is already well underway with this research and shortlisting
What are these two stats then?
Well I don't know myself to be honest as yet.
Probably something unobvious to the majority knowing Guy.
I will find out around 11 am Saturday when Guy sends his Saturday
If you have £3 to invest you can book in to receive it
at this link.
Note the 11am Saturday morning cut off time.
PS A quick bit of news from my inbox this week.
It may be of interest to those of you who like
to make your own bets and place them the
evening before racing.
are as of this week now putting up early prices the evening
BOG will also apply on evening prices.
ie if the eventual SP is bigger than your taken price you get
the better SP odds.
For some reason this makes my mind wander back about 15 years
to when there used to be a bookie called LuvBet who were one
of the first
on the net to start the concept of putting up evening before
At the time Guy had no website but a group of followers from
old AOL message boards and he would do a fair bit of evening
tipping against LuvBet.
Bookmaker liability systems were not as advanced back then
and LuvBet would get hammered.
At one point the owner made a public rant about Guy Ward
trading in insider information or somehow acting illegally.
That was never the case.
The simpler fact was that Guy was just much better than LuvBet
determining what price a horse should be.
His homework was all done before LuvBet published their prices
and he quickly spotted their flaws in race reading.
Obviously Guy had the advantage of being able to
select a few races and examine them in great depth.
LuvBet on the other hand had to spread their pricing
effort across all races.