The Cambridgeshire
Thirty five or so runners charging down Newmarket's Rowley Mile straight.
It is almost like the flat season's equivalent to the Grand National.
Finding the winner is somewhat of a needle in a haystack ... in a field full of haystacks.
A lot of the research work that Guy carries out here is aimed at being a tool
that helps rule out many of the haystacks. A magnetic magic pin if you like
that can point in the general direction of where that elusive needle may be.
However it is not infallible as a tool.
Harry Kane will not score with every single shot he takes.
More so the core concept would be a numbers game over time.
If you fish in a lake that has 5000 fish per square mile,
you should catch more fish in the long run than your
mate who is fishing in a 2000 fish per square mile lake.
Early in the week Guy sent out to Full members some early
stats research into The Cambridgeshire.
I have popped those on a webpage for you.
Guy uses the results of such stuff himself to try and define which
rough lake of runners he may want to go fishing in.
It is not the be all and end all.
More so a solid foundation to further
develop a final race opinion from.
On a brighter Cambridgeshire note,
big runner fields usually bring big prices.
Additionally six places each way is industry norm for this particular race.
A few stingy meanies offer only four places. Boo Hiss.
Sky offer eight places.
Sky usually lead the "how many places" race
but they also have the habit of slightly skinny prices
to go with it.
I have no idea how Guy will swing himself on Saturday.
A common tactic of his with larger fields however
may be to cover two bigger priced horses each way.
If you can picture in your head a chart of bank level over time.
The line for win only on the nose, would produce significant volatility.
Big draw downs then sudden sharp rises.
Two covered each way, well the chart will be smoother.
The benefit of a smoother chart is usually little to do with mathematics
and more so to do with the emotional human brain.
Most human brains are designed to not vastly appreciate
a long losing run.
Anyhow there is fair chance Guy's main bet on
Saturday will be selected from an easier race
to solve than The Cambridgeshire.
[ He won't know himself until he has finished
his fine tuning research on Saturday morning.]
The Cambridgeshire however should indeed be one of
several races he covers in his Saturday message.
If you want to support us here you can do so
by booking in to read Guy's Saturday morning message.
A paltry £3 is that via
Or for a bit of a self pampering upgrade, ponder the Weekender Service.