Hi Folks
Today I have news of something brand new from us.
Also lower down at message base I have advance researched
stats work for Saturday's Great St Wilfrid Handicap.
Commenting to Full members earlier today Guy was highlighting
that his Saturday or Sunday main Account bets had
not had a loser over the past five weeks.
Three each way bets placed at 8/1, 8/1 and 13/2
Then there were two winners at 10/1 and 5/1
He is obviously keen to keep the good run flowing over this weekend.
Things are not set in stone but there is significant potential
the Great St Wilfred will be the race he targets.
He said..
"Tomorrow
Great St Wilfrid Handicap
Completed this race last night
Came out with a strong opinion
If I don't find better elsewhere
Happy to stake the bet in this"
The New Shiny Thing
As is our eternal style there will be no silly hype from me about this.
It is something that quite a few have past suggested to us would
match their deviant personal desires.
All it is a new Weekender option that permits service access for all our Saturday
and Sunday racing analysis messages.
We have had the Saturday only concept for quite a few years now.
That is still there and is going nowhere soon.
However we would often get emails of the ilk
"I am far too busy at work mid week to properly use the Full Member Service.
Paying the bigger money for a serviced I have little time to use mid week
does not make huge logical sense.
The Saturday idea is good.
However I am free on Sundays too and find it frustrating
that I can not join up to receive your Sunday analysis too"
Selfishly thinking my life would be easier if I
could remove one item that I get moaned at about, I
eventually put my backside into gear and sorted
out the website code to handle this new Weekender idea.
The original Saturday Day Pass runs of a credits concept.
eg Book a single Saturday for a one off small fee or
a larger fee for 10 Saturdays.
This new Weekender however is more of a classic monthly sub
similar to the way our Full member service works.
Obviously it is a lot cheaper than the Full Member service
because we will be sending Weekender clients the messages only
on Saturday and Sunday mornings instead of all week.
It is a bit like buy a couple of slices of pizza instead
of having to buy a full pizza. There may be some
argument however that the weekend slices are those
with the most pepperoni on them.
Anyhow no hard hype sell.
More so I will lay out the factual information
and you can judge for yourself.
The original Saturday only remains in its usual spot of
If however you prefer detailed racing analysis
on both Saturdays AND Sundays then you
might prefer the new Weekender Service.
Great St Wilfrid Handicap Ante Post Statistics
Below are Phase 1 research stats.
Foundation work that looks at the history of the race.
Later Phase 2 work Guy would then do is to match runners
to positive and negative stats.
Then Phase 3 is additional consideration given to
Draw, going and trainer factors .
The idea is to whittle a large race field
down into a much smaller shortlist of contenders.
Assessing value at available odds is then I guess the final
Phase 4 piece of the puzzle.
Very often the horse output from Guy's brain
may not be a horse with a 100% perfect stat profile at short odds
but a reasonable stat match horse at more attractive odds.
So the Phase 1 stuff is below for you.
Phases 2 - 4 Guy will complete
in time for tomorrow's message.
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Great St Wilfrid Handicap
Saturday August 17th
Ripon 3.20
The last 27 winners
Won off these ratings
89 90 92 88 99 97 100
98 96 94 94 99 87 95
94 100 92 98 99 80 98
96 83 85 75 101 83
Horses rated 102 or more
Have a 0-55 record in this
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a poor 0-58 record
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-33 record in this race
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 14 days
Have a poor 1-95 record
Those with 9st or more 0-35
Horses aged 3 are 3-47
They all ran within 3 weeks
They were drawn 6 7 7
Horses aged 4
Won 8 of the recent renewals
Those absent over 21 days 0-26
None won with 9st 9lbs + (0-9)
24 of the last 26 winners
Ran within the past 3 weeks
Those that did not were 3-100
Those aged 3-4 doing this 0-33
Those with 9st 2lbs + are 0-35
From Class 3 or lower all 34 lost
Horses absent over a month
Won 2 of the 24 renewals (2-66)
Both winners were 5 year olds
Those with 9st 2lbs or more 0-28
The longest absent winner
Won with a break of 105 days
Horses from 5f races
Have a 4-89 record
Those absent more than 14 days
Have an overall 0-41 record
Horses from 7f races
Have a poor 1-61 record
That was a 4yo back in 2002
Horses from class 4 or lower
Beaten last time out are 0-25
Absent over 14 days are 0-15
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 0-21 record since 2000
Since the stalls renumbered
Winners came from these stalls
6 9 19 17 15 19 10 13 8 4 9 10 16
Horses drawn 1-2-3 are 0-39
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