Saturday marks what is traditionally considered the last day of the flat season.
The last race of the last flat card is the November Handicap 3.45 at Doncaster.

This free newsletter prioritises that race.
I have below for you some early prep work Guy gave
our Full member clients earlier in the week.

Part 1 is longer term trend / stats research for the November Handicap.

Part 2 then is a bit of brief commentary about some of the market leaders in that race.

Guy still has a fair shift of work and thought to complete on the race.
That he will have finalised however in time for his Saturday Morning message.

If you would like to join us for that you will be most welcome.
Just go to our home page at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
From there you may pick what suits you best.
That could be a single one off cheap Saturday, a weekender membership
or for the more serious the Full service for ongoing daily advice.

What else is going on this Saturday?

Well it is looking like a busy day racing analysis wise.
Reading the tea leaves of Guy's Full member comments
two other major Saturday races he will be taking apart in his Saturday message
are the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree and the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton.

With regards to that Badger Ales chase his quick comment was that
"The current ante post favourite will fail some big statistics"
So at this early stage is sounds like his strategy for that race will
be to avoid the favourite and go for something at bigger odds.

Additionally, slightly more under the radar is Kelso.
One of his pre set up stat filter alerts is beeping furiously for there
encouraging his expert human eye to take a deeper look.

So it's looking like an interesting and busy Saturday.

 

 

November Handicap Ante Post Statistics

Saturday November 8th

Doncaster 3.45

Horses with under 4 runs
Have a 0-26 record in this

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a poor 1-64 record in this
Only 1 has won since the 1970's
He was very lightly raced horse

Go back to 1997
Horses aged 6 or more
Having over 16 career starts
Have a poor 1-102 record

Go back to 2001
Horses with over 25 runs
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 0-55 record in this

Horses with over 20 runs
Tend not to win this race
If you go back to 2004
Horses with over 20 runs
Have a poor 3-132 record

Horses with over 20 runs
Carrying over 9st weight
Have a 0-33 record in them

Horses with over 20 runs
Under 3 runs in 3 months
Have a 0-46 record in them

Horses with over 20 runs
Coming up in trip are 0-50

You want 4 + runs this season
Only horses with under 11 runs
Can be forgiven under 4 runs
Unless seasonal debutants

Horses with 11 or more races
Should have at least 4 runs
During the last calendar year
Horses without that are 0-62

Horses with 1 run in 3 months
Have a 0-94 record in this race

No horse has won this
Coming from 2m 1f or further
Horses that did that were 0-31

Horses need a good recent run
Every past winner since 2008
Who had raced that season
Were beaten under 10 lengths

Horses with over 6 runs
Coming from a pattern race
Have a 0-36 record in this

Winners aged 4
Had the following career runs
12 6 15 24 39 21 26 12 15 14

Horses aged 4 with under 12 runs
Have a 1-67 record in recent years

Horses aged 4
Who won their previous race
Have a 1-42 record since 1997

Last time 4yo winners score badly
That winner was recent in 2018

Horses aged 4
Won from these handicap marks
90 105 95 93 97 98 89 75

Past winners
Had the following days absences

32 25 245 29 42 199 44 101
21 4 58 14 51 22 35 57 35 41
36 26 14 15 7 34 15 41 24

Long absences are acceptable
If the horses is lightly raced

Horses with over 6 runs
Absent over 58 days are 1-48

Horses aged 3
Coming up from 10f or shorter
Won 2 past renewals (1999 2002)
Horses doing it had 13 + 15 runs

Horses aged 4 and older
Winning last time
More than 6 career runs
Absent over 4 days
Have a 0-72 record since 1997

 

November Handicap Brief Market Leader Thoughts

Just a few brief thoughts
about some market leaders

LORD MELBOURNE a 4yo
Won this race last season
Badly underraced this year
He won't be the selection

Ralph Beckett runs two

Neither of his pair are safe

MASTER VITNER has 3 runs
That's too experienced for this

PERFECT YOUR CRAFT
Not safe as a 3 year old filly
Up in trip with an absence

Several exposed horses
These fail strong statistics

GREY CUBAN
STRESSFREE

LIEBER POWER fails angles
Absent weeks after a victory

ATHERSTONE WARRIOR a 3yo
Will probably fall on the "No" side

CASTLE COVE is a 4yo
He has just 7 career starts

Horses aged 4
Under 12 runs
Have a 1-67 record
That winner in 2018
Had 199 days break

CASTLE COVE has 49
Not ready to call negative
From a top class trainer
But the profile is wobbly
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