In our free newsletter today
#1 - Cheltenham Deal?
#2 - This Weekend
#3 - Greatwood Gold Cup Ante Post Statistics
#4 - Cheltenham William Hill County Hurdle Early Look
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#1 - Cheltenham Deal?
I am starting to get a lot of inbox questions about this
so to answer en masse I will quickly say
YES - We do plan on running a Cheltenham deal this year.
Similar to last year there will be some advance free time
so you can settle in at leisure with no Day 1 of the festival
mad last minute panic. The cheap month deal will also
cover you for the Grand National Aintree Festival as well as Cheltenham.
I will email you again before next weekend once I have the
cheap offer page set up and ready.
#2 - This Weekend
Lots of good racing this weekend.
Two of the Saturday message highlights will be
The Grimthorpe Handicap at Doncaster and
the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury.
Our Saturday and Weekender options are there as usual
should you wish to book in for the day of race analysis.
&
Some stat research for the Greatwood I have pasted below for you.
Whilst many of our clients prefer to time efficiently focus on Guy's final recommendations
I know many others also take great pleasure in trying to solve racing puzzles for themselves.
A crossword with no clues what so ever is a bit excessively masochist for most.
Researched stats are simply little logical clues that can sometimes help.
Different individuals are free to put different weight of importance on individual stats.
My own unique eyes for example would pull out from the Greatwood stats below
"Horses winning last time out
Have a 1-42 record in this race"
My own personal perception would be that the great unwashed punting public
would be likely to favor a horse with a nice big beautiful 1 form figure in its last race.
But for this unique Greatwood race ( unlike most people ) we know that
only 1 out of 42 last time out winners won.
So potentially the value lies in the horses that DID NOT win their last race.
If for shortlisting purposes we take our red pen out on those grounds
we cross out three horses in the shorter odds half of the market.
That is a good first step towards finding the horse or horses we may wish to punt.
After the race we may have a new stat of 1 from 45
or it may be 2 from 45. Either way we will have made a
logical shortlisting choice based on numbers data.
I guess I personally am attracted to little scenarios
where the masses may deem something a positive
when the data tells us it is a negative.
If odds are dictated by supply and demand,
the value hunter wants demand misdirected to the wrong spot.
Others amongst you with your own unique eyes
and weights of importance, will see
different pictures painted by such stats.
Often you will be right when I am wrong.
That is all good as long as we both come
out ahead of the line in the long run.
#3 - Greatwood Gold Cup Ante Post Statistics
Saturday March 1st
Newbury 3.45
Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase 2m 4f
19 Past renewals
Horses aged 6-7-8 are best
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a modest 3-105 record
One of them was a dead heat
Another was in a small field
With 5 of 7 runners aged 9 +
Recent winners of this
Had the following Chase runs
8 13 14 3 22 19 4 9
13 8 11 15 9 12 10
The best range is 3-15 chases
Recent winners of this
Had these runs that year
4 2 4 4 5 5 4 4 5
3 3 6 2 3 5 7 5 4
No horse has won with 1 run
Most won with 3 or more races
Horses winning last time out
Have a 1-42 record in this race
17 of the 19 past winners
Ran within the last 42 days
All 19 past winners of this
Ran within the last 70 days
Horses from 2m races
Won 3 of the 18 renewals
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 2m 1f or less
Have a 0-24 record in this
Past winners
Had the following official ratings
130 135 147 144 147 128
143 149 132 145 149 130
146 133 139 146 140 131 142
Horses rated 150 or more
Have a 0-19 record in this race
Horses with over 5 chase runs
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-25 record in this race
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#4 - William Hill County Hurdle Early Look
Cheltenham Festival
Ground is currently soft
Early look at the County Hurdle
Early Preview first
Ante Post Statistics after
Friday March 14th
Cheltenham 2.00
William Hill County Hurdle
7/1 Kopeck De Mee, 7/1 Absurde
8/1 Mclaurey 8/1 Lark In The Mornin, 11/1 Valgrand
11/1 Ethical Diamond 12/1 Kargese, 14/1 Karniquet,
16/1 Burdett Road, 20/1 Kala Conti 20/1 Vischio,
20/1 Iberico Lord, 20/1 Kabral Du Mathan 20/1 Karafon
20/1 King Of Kingsfield, 25/1 Hansard, 25/1 Daddy Long Legs
25/1 Tellherthename, 25/1 Irish Panther, 25/1 My Mate Mozzie
25/1 Favour And Fortune, 25/1 Petrol Head, 25/1 Gaucher,
25/1 Hunters Yarn, 25/1 Jimmy Du Seuil, 25/1 Ndaawi,
25/1 Slugger, 25/1 Pinot Gris, 33/1 Raglan Road
33/1 Lump Sum, 33/1 Gala Marceau, 33/1 Tounsivator
33/1 Bunting, 33/1 Samui, 33/1 The Enabler, 33/1 Stormbreaker,
33/1 Batman
Willie Mullins
KOPECK DE MEE
His big talking horse
Had 7 runs in France
Entered in 3 festival races
Coral Cup 7/1
County Hurdle 8/1
Martin Pipe Handicap 5/1
Not yet clear where he runs
Wherever race he does race in
He passes my generic statistics
If you look at Betfair's market
He may not run in this race
He is far shorter in the other races
We can deal with him later on
Whatever race Mullins chooses
One thing is interesting
If you go back to 1997
Cheltenham Handicap Hurdles
Every one run at the festival
From all the 5 year old winners
None won absent over 124 days
KOPECK DE MEE faces 310 days
Going to assume he does not run
Ran all my Generic Statistics
Expecting the following horses
To fail one or more of those
7/1 Absurde
8/1 Lark In The Mornin
11/1 Ethical Diamond
16/1 Burdett Road
20/1 Kala Conti
20/1 Vischio
20/1 Karafon
25/1 Pinot Gris
25/1 Ndaawi
25/1 My Mate Mozzie
25/1 Petrol Head
25/1 Daddy Long Legs
33/1 Gala Marceau
33/1 Tounsivator
ABSURDE
He is second favourite
He won the race last year
Won't be picking him here
22 career starts
129 days off the track
Go back to 1997
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Hurdles
Horses with over 18 runs
Absent over 80 days
Have a 0-100 record so far
ABSURDE will fail this angle
Several Willie Mullins horses
Fail the same generic statistic
Cheltenham Festival
36 Handicap Hurdles
Since 2012
Horse aged 5
Over 7 career starts
Have a 0-101 record
Some of the market leaders
Who do not survive this angle
ETHICAL DIAMOND
KARAFON
LARK IN THE MORNIN
BURDETT ROAD if he runs
Will also fail the same statistic
He fails other generics as well
He also runs off a rating of 150
Horses rated 147 or more
Have a weak 1-51 record
Taking out the generic statistics
The following horses all remain
8/1 Mclaurey 11/1 Valgrand
12/1 Kargese 14/1 Karniquet 20/1 Iberico Lord
20/1 Kabral Du Mathan 20/1 King Of Kingsfield
25/1 Hansard 25/1 Tellherthename, 25/1 Irish Panther
25/1 Favour And Fortune, 25/1 Gaucher,
25/1 Hunters Yarn, 25/1 Jimmy Du Seuil,
25/1 Slugger, 33/1 Raglan Road 33/1 Lump Sum
33/1 Bunting, 33/1 Samui, 33/1 The Enabler
33/1 Stormbreaker 33/1 Batman
Many of the above
Will fail race statistics
Which are included below
Ante Post Statistics
Friday March 14th
Cheltenham 2.00
William Hill County Hurdle
7/1 Kopeck De Mee, 7/1 Absurde
8/1 Mclaurey 8/1 Lark In The Mornin, 11/1 Valgrand
11/1 Ethical Diamond 12/1 Kargese, 14/1 Karniquet,
16/1 Burdett Road, 20/1 Kala Conti 20/1 Vischio,
20/1 Iberico Lord, 20/1 Kabral Du Mathan 20/1 Karafon
20/1 King Of Kingsfield, 25/1 Hansard, 25/1 Daddy Long Legs
25/1 Tellherthename, 25/1 Irish Panther, 25/1 My Mate Mozzie
25/1 Favour And Fortune, 25/1 Petrol Head, 25/1 Gaucher,
25/1 Hunters Yarn, 25/1 Jimmy Du Seuil, 25/1 Ndaawi,
25/1 Slugger, 25/1 Pinot Gris, 33/1 Raglan Road
33/1 Lump Sum, 33/1 Gala Marceau, 33/1 Tounsivator
33/1 Bunting, 33/1 Samui, 33/1 The Enabler, 33/1 Stormbreaker,
33/1 Batman
Winners Offiicial Ratings
138 134 129 137 146 139 158
138 138 139 134 139 139 134
135 132 135 131
Horses rated 147 or more
Have a weak 1-51 record
Onlt the 2017 winner did it
A Grade 1 horse from Mullins
Recent winners
Had the following lifetime runs
18 22 17 4 19 21 19
14 14 12 11 14 19
Only the 2029 winner
Had under 11 career starts
No recent winners
Had over 22 career starts
Recent winners
Had the following hurdle runs
4 14 14 3 18 9 17 6 9 6 5 12 4
Recent winners
Had the following absences
39 34 19 72 97 80 418
124 6 217 48 33 68
Recent winners
Had the following runs since August
5 2 2 4 3 0 2 4 0 6 3 3
No winners had 1 run that season
Horses aged 5
Carrying 11st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-50 record since 2000
No winners aged 5
Have over 16 career starts
Horses aged 6
With 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-27 record since 1997
Horses aged 6
Absent more than 2 weeks
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-91 record since 1997
Horses aged 7
Have a 1-156 record since 1998
Have a 0-123 record since 2004
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-67 record (2007)
No Female horse has won
Horses with 10st 4lbs or less
Have a 0-42 record since 2008
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-57 record since 2003
Horses running within 6 weeks
Have a 2-141 record since 2012
4 of the last 5 winners had long breaks
Go back to 2001
Horses running within 25 days
Have a 3-127 record since then
The 3 winners were all 6yo's
Those aged 5 were 0-32
Those aged 7 or more 0-66
Go back to 2007
Horses winning last time out
Running in the last 6 weeks
Have a 0-47 record since them
Horses from handicaps
Run in Class 3 or lower
Are 0-45 since 2006
Horses from 2m 5f or more
Have not won this since 1998 (0-21)
Horses from a non graded Novice
Have a 0-29 record since 2001
Horses from Listed Hurdles
Have a 0-62 record in recent years
Horses beaten 20 + lengths last time
Have a 0-83 record since 2008
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