Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
Today's Agenda
 
#1 - New Year Catch Up
#2 - January Sale Deal
#3 - Peter Marsh Handicap Chase Stats Research And Early Look
 
#1 - New Year Catch Up
 
It has been about a month since the last free newsletter here.
I guess I did not want to hassle you with suggestions to join up
at what was a sub optimal time. In mid December, Guy here
decided it would be a good idea to fracture his leg.
He opted for the full shebang of Ambulance, emergency surgery
and metal pins inserted. We have our new Bionic Guy I guess.
 
Long term clients here are well aware of Guy's work ethic and
dedication to racing research duty for them. Even they were
probably a bit surprised when Guy returned to work ( albeit a bit slow and limpy )
only one week after the leg break.
 
More recently then we had that cold frosty weather snap.
Most NH Racing was suspended leaving a meagre diet
of all weather. A bit like surviving on spongy reformed chicken
nuggets when you really want a steak.
 
But today however I see the green shoots
of daffodils starting to break the earth.
Cheltenham Festival is just over 50 days away.
 
Recent hurdles are behind us and things are looking up.
This is now a better time for me to be suggesting to you
that you perhaps come join us as a member.
 
 
#2 - January Sale Deal
 
Our standard Saturday Day Pass is there as ever at
 
One of the races Guy intends to cover is the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock.
Some of his early thoughts & research on that one I have further below for you.
 
I thought I would kick off 2025 with a money saving deal for you however.
This deal relates to our Weekender Service which provides access to
racing analysis on both Saturdays AND Sundays.
It is popular with those who have their midweeks ruined by having to go to work.
 
Under this deal there is a £1 for two weeks intro period.
So two weekends of racing analysis sorted for your £1.
Use that as your "see with own eyes" test as to whether
you want to stay on as a Weekender member longer term or not.
 
Here is the deal page link
 
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Weekender January Sale Deal
 
 
************************************
 
 
 
 
 

#3 - Peter Marsh Handicap Chase Stats Research And Early Look
 
This is extracted from a mid week Full member message.
Guy will finalise his conclusion for this race and for others in his Saturday message.
-------------------------
 

Saturday January 18th

Haydock 2.30

Peter Marsh Handicap Chase

5/2 Royale Pagaille 3/1 Mr Vango 4/1 Trelawne
9/1 Iwilldoit 10/1 Jacks Parrot 10/1 Imagine
10/1 Gelino Bello 12/1 Sam Brown 12/1 My Silver Lining
14/1 Collectors Item 16/1 Richmond Lake 16/1 Bill Baxter
20/1 Chambard v20/1 Major Dundee 25/1 Gustavian

Ante Post Statistics Below

It is now 3 years
since this race was last ran

Twice abandoned in 2023-2024

ROYAL PAGAILLE is favourite
Won the 2023 and 2024 renewals
Won the Betfair Chase last time too
So understandable he is the favourite

But he is 11 years old
He has 56 days absence
He will have topweight too

This statistic is a bit ropey

Go back to 1997

Graded Handicap Chases

Run over 3m 1f  and more

Any time of year

With over 5 runners in them

Horses aged 11 or older
Absent more than 16 days
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-54 record in them

It is a bit ropey as a statistic
As 2 horses won over 3 miles
Nacarat and Malborough
Winning the Racing Post Chase

But beyond 3 miles
None have won with that profile
ROYAL PAGAILLE will fail this stat







Ante Post Statistics

Peter Marsh Handicap Chase

Past winners
Had the following chase runs
13 10 21 25 6 10 21 8 3 12 26
14 10 31 3 10 8 13 22 15 14 28

Only 2 of the last 21 winners
Had under 6 previous chase runs
Both had 10st 4lbs or less weight

Horses with under 6 chase runs
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record in this race

Lighter raced chasers can win
Horses with under 11 chases
Won 5 of the last 9 renewals

Horses with over 10 chases
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-15 record since 2013

Past winners since 2000
Had the following absences
27 24 28 36 56 35 36 35 26
28 22 21 16 27 14 28 23 42
Longest absent winner 56 days

Past winners
Had the following runs this season
1 2 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 2
Before last years winner
No horse won this in many years
Having raced once this season

Horses aged 7
Have a 1-25 record since 1997
Winning last year in a small field
Previously won this 1995 + 1996
Both the 7yo's had 4 + prep runs

Horses aged 9 or younger
With over 14 chase runs
Have a 0-19 record in this

Horses from 3m 3f or further
Have a 0-36 record in this race

Horses with 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 4-46 record since 1997
Jodami won 1997 with 11st 12lbs
Cloudy Glen 11st 10lbs in 2009
Royal Pagaile 11st 10lbs 2021
Royal Pagaile 11st 10lbs 2022

18 of the past 19 winners
Came from races over 3m-3m2f

Horses from 2m 5f or shorter
Have a 1-26 record in this race
Only the 8yo winner in 2014 did
He only had 3 career chase runs
He won on his previous start
He also had a very light weight
And several runs that season

Go back to 2000
No horse aged 10 or more
Has won absent over 6 weeks
All 17 that tried were beaten

Go back to 2000
No horse aged 9 or more
Absent more than 4 weeks
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-35 record in them

 
 
 
 
Best of luck
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

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