Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

#1 - Petition For More Honourable Bookmakers
#2 - Last Saturday
#3 - Lincoln Stats
#4 - This Saturday


#1 - Petition For More Honourable Bookmakers

I noted this Houses of Parliament petition the other day
that is seeking more honourable behaviour from our
bookmaker friends.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/125456

Most of them work on the principle of
discrimination against individuals like you.
Show any sign of winning and they will
limit stakes on your individual account but
treat others very differently.

Picture going into a supermarket
to buy a loaf of bread but getting told at the till
that you personally because you are you are only
permitted to buy one slice.
The bloke in the queue after you they sell the whole loaf to.

Pure persecution and discrimination against individuals.

Even if they are not persecuting you today
they may want to in future.

I would not be in 100% agreement with the precise
wording of this petition. If setting it up myself
I may have phrased it around bookies accepting
a minimum liability as opposed to a minimum stake.

In New South Wales in Australia for example
bookmakers are indeed forced to accept
decent bets of 2500 Aussie dollars if memory serves me right
after punters there said bookie past behaviour was "not fair dinkum".
It was most of the uk brands who are also over there that got the most criticism.
The racing authorities there introduced rules to reduce individual
punter perpetuation behaviour.

But despite me not agreeing 100% with the exact wording of this one
I have signed it anyhow. At his stage it is more so about
raising awareness of the general issue in the Houses of Parliament.

It will take you a mere 30 seconds or so to complete.
Who knows in a years time you may be able to claim
that you yourself helped change the world for the better
for many punting years to come.

The Aussies didn't want a shafting so stood up for themselves and won.
What are you Uk and Irish punters going to do?
Lube yourself up, bend over and touch your toes singing Dancing Queen
or do you have it in you to put up a bit more resistance than that?

[No offence intended to those of you who may find that
an attratctive idea ]

Here is the link again.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/125456

Use your own vote then pass on the link
to any punter friends or webmasters you may be in contact with.

#2 - Last Saturday

Another good day for Guy's official tips
with Western Sunrise who was available
at 8/1 each way did the business.

By chance it appears he got in ahead of a bit of a gamble
as the horse was heavily backed down later to 7/2 SP

Another notch up for the longer term profit chart however.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

#3 - Lincoln Stats

Guy provided full members today with some advance stat
research work into Saturday's Lincoln Handicap.
I have copied these below for you in case you are a
DIY horse picker who has an interest in the race.

Reading between the lines of Guy's full member comments today
I do not think this 22 runner cavalry charge of no recent flat form horses
is going to attract serious attention from him in his Saturday message.
He did say he may use the stats below to shortlist a few however
for those with an interest.

Any official bet on Saturday will very likely be in a different race.


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Lincoln Handicap (Saturday)

The Lincoln Handicap is over a 8f at Doncaster

Recent winners were aged as follows
6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 6 5 5 5
Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-80 record in this race
All 53 that ran in the last 11 years were beaten

March-April Class 2 handicaps on turf over 8f
There are 82 of these races since 2000
Horses aged 7 or more had a miserable 2-206 record
None of them had form in Group races before

Horses aged 6 or more had a poor 10-402 record
The vast majority were seasonal debutants.
Look at 6 year olds that ran within the previous 90 days
Only 1 managed to win from 201 that tried

Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
4 year olds have won 7 of the last 17 renewals
Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
Those that raced in the last 3 months perform poorly
Since 1998 horses aged 4 with recent runs are 0-30
Horses aged 4 tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-71
Fillies aged 4 are 0-7 in the last 17 years
None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap
None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 + lengths last time

Looking now at 5 year olds
No 5yo winners ran in an English Group race before
The Lincoln winner rarely has English Group Class form
There are 124 that tried and only one managed to do it
The only winner that did that was Babodana (2004)

Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
Horses with 21 + runs won 8 of the last 22 renewals
6 of the 8 were seasonal debutants
None of these carried 9st 5lbs or more
None of them had raced in Group Class before

Horses from the All Weather this season won 7 races
4 of the 7 winners had 15 or fewer career starts
The other came 3 from the sand in Dubai
The 4 that ran in England on sand all ran within 15 days
These 4 horses were aged 5 5 4 5
None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
None came from 7f or shorter
They all had 8st 11lbs or less
Horses absent 15-90 days That ran in England have a 0-66 record
Horses running within 15 days won 4 renewals.
These were Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs
They also Placed in a Class 2 handicap last time
They also ran over at least a mile and had under 9st
No past winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
Horses that came from 9f or more won 5 of the last 11 races
No horse won this coming from a 3 year old handicap before


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#4 - This Saturday

You can book into receive Guy's Saturday analysis at the usual link below

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 11am Saturday morning cut off time.
Sort it now I suggest if you want on the Saturday Client list.

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk




 


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