I thought I would drop out this week's free newsletter
slightly earlier in the week than usual.
Yesterday Guy sent full members a bit of an advance look
at Friday's Portland Handicap.
I thought those of you who like to think for yourselves a bit
might find of interest some of the researched stats he has uncovered.
So a copy of this snippet from full member stuff is copied below for you.
Also is an extra small bit of commentary on Saturday's St Leger.
Shameless Plug
Now for my usual proposal that it would be a
grand and fine idea for you to blow away the cobwebs and
extract three dusty gold coins from your wallet to join up
with us for this Saturday.
A single Saturday is a one off £3.
No worries about cancelling anything after that.
Or if you prefer you can have 10 interesting racing Saturdays
sorted for the one time hassle of £25.
We make about £0 each year from bookie backhanders
for referring losing customers. Instead we depend
primarily on repeat business from repeat clients.
It is super clear to us who is buttering our
bread and who we have to keep happy.
If you want to contribute to the cause and sort yourself
the benefit of quality Saturday racing analysis
here is the link
A typical Saturday may have 8 to 10 races researched,
analysed and written up by Guy.
From that group he will try and steer readers to his favoured options.
Those of you who prefer just a single strong bet may choose to focus
on what he may term Account Bet or Highlighted bet right at message top.
Over the last 5 Saturdays he has had two winners, two post hits making a small
each way place profit and one loser.
Hopefully another one in the winner column this Saturday to come
but if you need to hear the likes of "nailed on banker plot job"
you are very much on the wrong newsletter.
A better thought train would be a good pool
to keep fishing in over the year to come.
Somedays you will catch nothing.
Other days a bucket full.
A degree of variance over the short term is the nature of the beast.
Many of our long term members actually might say
"Selective official bets..all grand and good but what I appreciate most
is the multi race detailed research as a basis to make wiser self decisions on"
The format does give individuals much greater scope
to adapt things to their own personal desires.
Quality research and analysis is the root of everything.
Sort that as a foundation then choose your own brickwork
pattern and build your personally styled house.
I think it is a good way but I appreciate some would prefer their
advisor to tell all followers in clear fashion to go at once at the same minute in time
to try and bet a ricky in excess of exchange price at some tin pot bookie.
I can sense a long rant coming on about some of the silliness
and stupidity knocking around the world of tipsters and punters.
But with consideration for your ears I will bite my lip for
now and save it for another day.
Over to Guy and those Portland and St Leger comment extracts I mentioned above.
Portland Handicap


Portland Handicap
( originally sent Wed Sept 11th )

Bielsa 7/1 Dazzling Dan 10/1
Justanotherbottle 10/1 A Momentofmadness 12/1
Equitation 12/1 Gunmetal 12/1 Oxted , Arecibo 14/1
Camacho Chief 14/1 Came From The Dark 14/1
Green Power 14/1 Jumira Bridge 14/1 Muthmir 14/1
Open Wide 14/1 Blue de Vega 16/1 Concierge 16/1
Copper Knight 16/1 Embour 16/1 Hyperfocus 16/1
Makanah 16/1 Marnie James 16/1 Only Spoofing 16/1
Orvar 16/1 Saaheq 16/1 Watchable 16/1 Yimou 18/1
Growl 20/1 Konchek 20/1 Muscika Venturous 20/1
Wentworth Falls 20/1 Tomily 22/1 Dark Shot 25/1
Savalas 25/1 Show Stealer 25/1 Tawny Port 25/1
Teruntum Star 25/1 Tropics 25/1 Abel Handy 25/1
Spoof 28/1 Abel Handy 33/1 Intense Romance 33/1
Lancelot du Lac 33/1 Poyle Vinnie 33/1 Harome 40/1
Secretinthepark 50/1

Race Statistics
Available at the end of the message
Seem to be a strong set of statistics

No Declarations yet
No Draw yet either
We can make a start

BIELSA only has 3 runs

None of the previous 22 winners
Had fewer than 5 previous races
To be fair he has won all 3 races
Nice horse but this is a big ask

Class 2 Handicaps
Run over 5f 6f 7f
Since 2007
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 4 career starts
Have a 0-30 record in them
BIELSA the 31st to try this

One of these will win this soon
But all 28 since 2001 have failed
He has never met an older horse
He has a handicap mark of 107
Only 1 of the previous 22 winners
Managed to win rated 102 or more

He managed to win this last year
Problems now he is a 6 year old
6 year olds are 0-72 since 2007
Horses aged 6 or more like him
Coming from a 5f race last time
Absent more than 3 days are 0-65

Race Statistics Below

If we apply those angles
And assume only horses rated 88 +
Will get into this years race

ARECIBO is a bit too exposed
MUSCIKA needs further investigation
CAMACHO CHIEF looks reasonable
EMBOUR positives but up in class
JUMIRA BRIDGE not ruled out
OPEN WIDE seems acceptable
HYPERFOCUS is also a positive

The above horses
Far from the finished shortlist
Some will be kicked off the list
Others will come onto it as well

Found a new angle

Just a few moments ago

Horses running within 10 days
Finishing 1st 2nd 3rd last time
Have a 0-38 record since 1997

That is quite interesting
Several fail this 0-38 statistic

ARECIBO has this problem
OPEN WIDE also fails this
HYPERFOCUS also fails this

Something to consider later
When we get Decs and Draw

Portland Handicap

Race Statistics

The last 18 winners
Had the following draws

18 22 12 10 15 12 21 15
16 18 21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8

Avoid horses drawn 1-2-3-4
The last 18 years they are 0-76

Since 2002
Every Portland winner
Ran within the previous 46 days

3 year olds
Have a 0-48 record since 2001
Last year one did finish second
But none have won in 18 years

4 year olds

Won 4 races since 2002
They had 9 7 17 18 career starts
They had 4 3 6 9 runs that season
Absences of 24 42 24 18 days
Won from ratings of 95 100 96 100
Won from Draws of 12 5 12 14
4yo's winning last time are 0-19
4yo's with over 18 runs are 0-32
All came from Class 2 handicaps
Those from lower grades 0-18

5 year olds

Won 8 races since 2002
They had 29 30 24 19 6 8 20 31 career runs
They had 8 6 6 3 5 5 4 8 runs that season
Absences of 46 14 19 28 7 35 28 15 days
Won from ratings of 99 101 97 97 96 100 95
They won from Draws of 18 22 14 20 19 6 17 14

6 year olds
Have a 0-72 record since 1997

Horses aged 6 +
Have a 1-168 record since 1997
Since 2005 they are 1-93
Horses aged 6+ from 5f races
Absent over 3 days are 0-65

Fillies have a 1-59 record
The winner a 4yo filly in 2013

Lighter weights struggle
Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 0-43 record since 2002

Horses rated 102 or more
Have a 1-48 record since 2002
That winner (Steps) ran 3 days before

Avoid 1-2 runs that season
Horses from Pattern races 1-41
That winner ran 3 days before

No winners came from 7f or 8f
Horses beaten 12+ Lengths last time
Have not won this race in decades

Doncaster St Leger
( originally sent Thurs Sept 11th )

St Leger meeting underway

They may not be very happy
About the field sizes this week

Doncaster Friday has 8 races
Only 57 runners in these races
And 14 are in the opening race

May not be the big festival week
That everybody was expecting

St Leger Saturday

Dashing Willoughby 14/1
He was backed yesterday
Paul Kealy has tipped him
Understandable at the odds

Feel locked in myself here
Given this is a classic race
Hard to ignore the obvious
Aidan O'Brien + John Gosden

English Classic Races

Since 2015

19 Classics

Aidan O'Brien 14
John Gosden   3
Others Trainers 8

Aidan should be on 15
As he had an odds on faller
Who would have won this race
I never oppose Aidan lightly

Steve Millar the Dosage expert
In his annual Weekender piece
Has gone with Sir Dragonet
Scores well on the Dosage index
But to be fair most do these days

Going to see how many run
Declarations come through today
At the moment my choice of bet
Would be Sir Dragonet each way

Worth considering the draw
There is one even over this far

The last 22 St Leger winners
Were drawn between Stalls 1-9
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 0-27 record in the race
Only last year Lah Ti Dar lost
As a beaten favourite drawn 10
That could yet influence things






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