Hi Folks
A few items this week that the Artful Dodger has pinched
for you from mid week full member service messages.
#1 - Poor Weather Blows In A Fair Deal
#2 - Punchestown - Grand National Trial Handicap Chase
#3 - Cheltenham Festival Races
#1 - Poor Weather Blows In A Fair Deal
The weather recently has been poor bringing about several abandonments.
Newbury and Warwick are now off on Saturday.
It appears Altior will be missing his planned Cheltenham prep race.
Life must be easier for racing punters in certain other countries
where the forecast is a consistent "All grand" 365 days a year.
"What's a coat Daddy?" the local kids might ask.
Sadly not the case here.
More like life in a fridge.
Anyhow with the Saturday card a bit diminished
it just felt in the zone of fairness to plan to send
any Saturday members the Sunday message too
this weekend.
I don't really want to peg it as a 2 for 1 offer.
Perhaps more akin to two 3/4 days will sum
up to a little bit better than the usual one.
We would rather give you a bit more than short change you.
Anyhow if you have not already done so you may
book in for the cheap Saturday only option via
Book in for a single Saturday if that suits you.
Or if a Saturday regular probably best to avail of the
10 block option to save yourself the hassle of messing
with pay pal every week.
The Sunday message will be included to balance
weather impact on Saturday. This Bonus Sunday applies whether
you book in now or have booked in already.
#2 - Punchestown - Grand National Trial Handicap Chase ( Sunday )
This was supposed to be a detailed look at Saturday's Betfair Chase at Newbury
but  sadly that is not to be. Instead we have a bit of early research work in
a prime Sunday race at Punchestown.

Grand National Trial Handicap Chase 3m 4f

12 Past renewals
42 Similar races in February

Past winners
Had the following career runs
12 18 42 18 10 11 14 16 12 8

The 2018 winner was exposed
All previous winners of this race
Had under 15 previous chase run

The least experienced winner
Had 8 previous lifetime starts

Past winners
Had the following chase runs
3 9 25 8 3 11 3 14 4 3
9 of the last 10 winners
Had under 15 chase runs

Past winners
Had the following runs since August
3 3 3 2 3 5 3 4 4 2
All 10 winners had 2 + runs that year

Past winners
Had the following days absence
31 17 8 70 64 63 17 22 63 30
The longest absence was 70 days

Horses from 2m 6f or shorter
Have a modest 2-60 record
Those from hurdles were 0-19
Those aged 9 or more were 0-36

42 Similar races in February
Horses aged 12 or more are 0-43

Mares won 3 races
They were aged 6 7 7
They all ran within 6 weeks
Those with 6 + chases were 0-21
Those with over 5 chases are 1-43
That winner ran 3 weeks beforehand

Horses aged 7
Have a 6-72 record
Those absent over 31 days are 1-37

Highweights have struggled
Horses with 11st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-26 record in this race

#3 - Cheltenham Festival Races
After last week's Dublin Festival Guy took the opportunity
this week with Full members to go over eight or so
of the Cheltenham Festival races.
I have copied two of the here for you.
Just a few quick notes of update really after
recent runs from a few contenders.
Just a bit of extra insight you may care to incorporate
into your own final decision making if pondering
an early Cheltenham dabble.
Worth noting that Non Runner No Bet
will be available at certain bookies.
( which bookie varies by race )
Well worth a check at your
favoured compare odds site.

Cheltenham Gold Cup
7/2 Al Boum Photo 8/1 A Plus Tard
10/1 Royal Pagaille  12/1 Champ 14/1 Santini
16/1 Native River 20/1 Minella Indo 20/1 Frodon
22/1 Kemboy

SANTINI has run recently and lost
Comes here after a 17 length defeat
The only Gold Cup winner
Who had raced that calendar year
Having been beaten over 10 lengths
Was Lord Windermere back in 2014
It badly damages his Gold Cup profile
May still win but his chance is weaker
MINELLA INDO was beaten on Sunday
Only by 6 lengths but it is a concern
Has lost his early season momentum
Would not be interested in him now
Al Boum Photo might win once again
Personally I'd find that anti climatic
When few back him or want him to win
His profile is not that good this season
KEMBOY won Sundays Irish Gold Cup
Doubts remain for him at Cheltenham
Not the biggest and may not suit him
NATIVE RIVER won the Cotswold chase
If it is very soft he will be very popular
But 11 years old unlikely to be my bet
A PLUS TARD my provisional selection
Even without stamina being proven yet
This selection is not cast yet in stone
May end up split staking this years race
Cheltenham Champion Bumper
13/8 Kilcruit 7/2 Sir Gerhard 14/1 Eileendover
Two horses dominate the market
KILCRUIT won at the Dublin Festival
Devastating performance on the bridle
His Racing Post Rating there was 142
SIR GERHARD has so far managed 131
So he is comfortably clear on figures
Putting that rating of 142 in full context
Cheltenham Bumper winners
Racing Post Ratings on the day
141 135 135 125 136 140 140 141 132 138
KILCRUIT if repeating that figure of 142
Would win the last 10 Cheltenham bumpers
EILEENDOVER the 3rd favourite here
Not suitable as a 4yo especially as a filly
There are many staking options
SIR GERHARD each way is interesting
I would personally prefer to bet both
£8 Kilcruit 13/8
£2 Sir Gerhard 7/2
Kilcruit becomes a 11/10 chance
With most money back on Sir Gerhard
£6 Win Bet Sir Gerhard 7/2
£4 Win Bet Kilcruit 13/8
This buys the favourite out of the race
Sir Gerhard is then the main bet 13/8-7/4
One of the most interesting markets now

I hope you enjoy your weekend.

Best Wishes






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