Mathematician Betting Free Newsletter

Today's ramblings include
#1 Lay Back Calculator
#2 Racing Authorities Discussing How To Shaft Punters
#3 Northumberland Plate Analysis

#1 Lay Back Calculator
Last Saturday was a good one for full members
who had been following Guy's future betting angles section.
Four legs on an ante post accumulator had already won
over the past month and Crystal Ocean at Royal Ascot
was the final leg.
The accumulator was to pay out at about 20/1
but only if Crystal Ocean won.
On the day Guy advised that any full members
on the bet should consider laying Crystal Ocean.
Whilst in the accumulator at 9/4, odds on the day
were much shorter. Betfair SP was in fact 1.58
The idea of laying back was to guarantee
no loss to the original stake even if Crystal Ocean lost.
I had a few members unaccustomed to doing such stuff
whom I had to help with the maths.
To assist them and others in future I knocked
up a simple online calculator that does the sums for you.
It is up on our little used blog site at
If we use the figures from Guy's bet and assume a £25 original stake
at odds of 20/1, then also assume it was laid at 1.58 you can play around with
the "Laying Back - What Stake To Lay Item and see the possible outcomes.
Laying back £26.4 is in effect the sum to lay to guarantee zero loss
if Crystal Ocean lost. That would have resulted in a payout
of circa £485 when it won.
Note how you can move potential profit about
by increasing or decreasing the stake you choose to lay back.
In this example had one laid £343 that would have changed the
possible outcomes to approximately
£300 profit if Crystal Ocean Won
£300 profit had Crystal Ocean Lost.
The race may have been a bit of a yawn to watch however
had you engineered that situation for yourself.
Anyhow you may find it a useful tool to help with such 
calcs in future. 
It will be up at the link above if you ever want it.
#2 Racing Authorities Discussing How To Shaft Punters
An article in the RacingPost caught my eye the other day.
Racehorse Owners Association president Nicholas Cooper said:
"There has been some early discussion about the possibility of creating a minimum betting margin
in an attempt to close the loophole that often occurs when bookmakers,
using racing purely as a marketing tool, bet to a near-zero margin,
thereby producing virtually nothing for the levy."
So how do you as a racing punter feel about that.
The big idea is that the ROA think it good that bookies should
be forced to offer worse odds on racing than they do now.
I hope that is a brainstorm idea that quickly bites the dust.
Racing has to compete against soccer, golf, tennis etc for punter attraction.
If the Racing Authorities conjure up rules that racing has to offer the worst
margin odds compared to other sports how will that help racing long term?
If it does go ahead then there will be lots of grey areas to police.
Say there was an enforced bookie margin of 25% on racing odds.
How would that rule apply to Ladbrokes and Corals who are now in effect
owned by the same crowd. What if picking best odds across both
produced a 10% over round.
I think instead racing authorities need to go back a step and ask did they
make a mistake jumping into bed with the bookies on a share of profits basis.
At the time I emailed the BHA suggesting that this would
be wrong because
A - Just like multi national companies run rings around
government corporation tax collectors, the bookies would
use every trick in the book to decrease what they pay out in levy.
B - Racing Authorities would be tarred with the same bad PR brush as bookies
when it came to issues such as barring punters and severe stake limitations.
I even said to a few people at the time
"What about a site model that was a 0% commission betting exchange
that used its 0% rate to lure in traffic to its casino and poker sections.
That would pay zero levy to racing if so.
Is profit share levy model not idiotic for racing?"
Such stuff should have been obvious to the BHA them at the time.
My proposal at the time was that they instead follow the Irish example
of a super simple levy on turnover. That would have been much easier to police
and Racing would have removed itself from the issue of being super concerned
that grubby bookmakers made a profit from racing punters.
My own selfish upside would have been a racing authority having primary
concern that us punters can get a stake on as bookie restrictions
on stakes would be hurting their levy.
But sadly I did not have the schmoozing budget of the big bookies
and the bookies schmoozed the racing authorities into siding
with a few big bookies instead of the tens of thousands of punters.
So much for democracy.
As for these recent terrible utterances from Cooper at the ROA
about minimum bookmaker margins  the cynic in may says there
may be some small element of BritBet thinking behind them.
BritBet in effect is a new pool due to launch in July now that
BredFred's Tote has lost its monopoly status.
Whilst I do indeed applaud the core concept of a racing operator
that puts cash directly back into racing I will not be very keen to use it
if their offering is just a rehash of the old terrible tote model
that took huge significant % take outs out from pools before
paying out to punters.
Racing should be introducing a highly competitive value to punters model.
Why not run a tote at 3% take out or the likes instead of 25%.
That may be a pool that actually has some appeal to punters.
Daily stake volumes could be huge and not the piddly volumes
of the historic tote.
My worry is Britbet will turn out to be a terrible deal for punters.
Time will tell there.
It could be so bad punters will see little logic in it.
Instead of making their product better
Racing Authorities will instead seek to make the products
of others worse in order that their own seems less bad when compared.
That would be shameful and a total swindle of all
you good punters out there who want better value racing not worse.
But it appears that ROA mouthpiece Mr Cooper is already
trying to engineer this future for you.
To be fair to him he is stuck in a landscape engineered between the bookies and the BHA.
#3 Northumberland Plate Analysis
Today Guy sent full members a bit of early work he had carried out
for Saturday's Northumberland Plate.
He has more thinking to do before he declares his final judgements
but those of you who like to pick your own may find some extra inspiration
in his early work below.
No doubt he will be finishing off this race and it and several others
will be included in Saturday message.  See the big yellow box below
for our Saturday Day Pass if it interests you to join us for the single day.
Saturday Newcastle 2.05

Northumberland Plate

7/2 Withhold 7/1 Amazing Red
9/1 Higher Power 10/1 Lagostovegas 12/1 Natural Scenery
14/1 Lord George 16/1 Time To Study 16/1 Byron Flyer
16/1 Prince of Arran 16/1 Nakeeta 20/1 Island Brave
20/1 Curbyourenthusiasm 20/1 Top Tug, Sir Chauvelin
25/1 Watersmeet 25/1 On To Victory 25/1 Arch Villain
33/1 Soldier In Action 33/1 Clever Cookie 33/1 Cayirli

Class 2 Handicap over 2m
Rarely done this race in recent years
Partly because it underwent chances
In 2016 it moved from Grass to Sand
Which undermined all my statistics
Look at the last 11 winners
9 on Grass and 2 on the Sand

WITHOLD is the market leader
He has a 259 day absence
He looks a very progressive stayer
He won the Cesarevitch last Autumn
Interesting owned by Tony Bloom
That is a horrible absence to face
The last 20 winners of this ran
All ran within the previous 52 days
WITHOLD therefore is not my bet

Since 2007

The last 11 winners

All had the following in common

1) Males aged 4-5-6-7
2) They ran 11-58 days ago
3) Beaten under 10 lengths last time
4) Ran over 1m 3f or more last time
5) Had at least 8 career starts
6) The winners aged 4
All ran within 6 weeks
All had 10-17 career starts

7)The winners aged 5 +
All had 2 + runs that season

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