Guineas Saver Deal

I bring news this week about a free trial deal
for you on our Weekender Service.

In addition I am sharing some number crunching
to do with increasing one's punting bank.
Being too timid can cost you.
Being too aggressive can cost you.
The trick is to find the sweet spot.

Finally I have some research data for Saturday's
Thirst Hunt Cup.

 

Weekender Service Free Trial Deal

The 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas
run this weekend at Newmarket.
Probably because I could not resist the cringy
corniness of suggesting that you could "Save a few Guineas"
I thought this might be a nice weekend to offer you a £0 free trial deal.

A minor extra bonus is that we will also be sending
our Weekender clients the Bank Holiday Monday
racing message as an extra gift.

More details about this offer at

https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/weekender/saveguineas.php

 

Who Does The Weekender Service Suit?

Well client type 1 is reasonably obvious.
Typically they will be at work Monday to Friday.
They probably have some mean old boss who expects them
to be doing some work and not messing with the horses
during work hours.
Saturday and Sunday access here is just a better free time fit.

Client type 2 is a little less obvious.

These I might describe as something like
Value Optimizing Account Bet Investor types.

Guy provides a lot of racing research and analysis
over a typical week. Normally about one race a week
will he flag up for an Account Bet.

Our Account Bet Investor types will put a lot of their focus
on these selective Account Bets.

A semi unusual extra condition Guy constrains
himself with is that the race market needs to
pretty strong. So no weak Monday afternoon
claimers at small tracks etc.

Most Account bets thus fall into the stronger weekend
markets with a few others mid week at major festivals.

I recently ran the numbers for the last calendar year
to see what percentage of Account Bets fell into
the various days of the week.

Sat	60%
Sun	30%
Midweek	10%

So the Weekender package should provide about 90%
of a years Account Bets ( assuming history repeats )
The Weekender however is only about 1/3rd the price of the Full Service.

So there is a strong value ratio there to argue for Weekender
IF one is a client with a strong Account Bet focus.

 

Why Are Investor Style Clients Drawn To The Account Bets?

A lot of that is our fault I guess.
Guy in his heart is not a tipster.
He prefers to be known as a racing researcher and analyst.
He produces a lot of useful work each week however
the only thing I log to our results spreadsheet are the rare
Account Bet "official tips"

I think it is natural for more investor style punters
to be drawn to the zones where they have clear
historic numbers data to work from.

Historic profitability of the Account Bets is obvious and clear.
The benefit of the rest of the service is less easy to report to them
in a spreadsheet.

 

How Good Have the Account Bets Been At Bank Growing?

I have crunched some numbers for you.

Base assumptions are

#1 - this relates to Account Bets only since Jan 2022
[ Not an arbitrary date but the date of an historic message format change.
Older data available too, if you want it - just shout ]

#2 - Odds used are the early prices in messages with BOG
Worth noting that message odds tend to be typically available at major bookies
and not the absolute max odds available.

#3 - I am assuming a starting bank of £1000 as an arbitrary value.

#4 - Listening to Einstein about the power of compounding,
we will be staking a percentage of our bank on each bet.
the stake will thus rise and fall in line with our over all bank level.

#5 - I tested the impact on the end bank examining
staking percentages between 2.5% and 20% jumped up
in increments of 2.5%

See the table below of what the 2022 initial £1000 would be worth now.

% Staked	End Bank £1000's
2.5	£5.8
5	£21.4
7.5	£53.7
10	£95.2
12.5	£123.7
15	£120.7
17.5	£90.0
20	£52.0

One key point of learning is to note how
the end bank figure rises as staking aggression rises.
However only up to a certain point.

12.5% appears to be the sweet spot in the table.

After that, excess aggression starts to hurt overall returns.

Out of interest the absolute perfect % for maximum growth was 13.5%
That resulted in an end bank of circa £126k

 

Should One Stake At This Optimum % ?

Cautious Harry me would argue - No.
Bear in mind that is back fitted to the data set using the power of hindsight.
History is often a strong guide but the future may not exactly replicate it.
It is usually prudent to build in some allowance for the future being
not a good as the past. Such safety factor can be accommodated by
running at a percentage lower than the perfect back fitted one might suggest.

Also bear in mind that a spreadsheet is emotionless.
Humans tend not to be.
The higher the aggression level the more violent swings one's bank level will have.
Different people will have different tolerances for such stuff.
Better to design a ride you will be happy to stay on for the duration
as opposed to something you will jump off crying for Mummy
at the first sign of turbulence.

Knowing yourself can be as equally important as knowing the numbers.

Another aspect might be how important you bank if to you.
If it is a small speculative investment pot that is a tiny percentage
of your overall net worth, you can afford to take more boom or bust risk with it.

If on the other hand it is more meaningful to your financial wellbeing,
an increased level of safety / caution would be in order.

 

Can I Keep Compounding Till I Am Richer Than Jeff Bezos?

In spreadsheet land you can but less easily in real life.
I mentioned earlier having older historic official bet data.
Back to 2014 that one goes.
Running off dubious memory here but running similar style
bank compounding analysis on that bigger data set
would have had an initial £1000 grow to circa £5 million quid
if staking at circa 6% of bank

That is all fine and dandy for a spreadsheet but a lot
harder to achieve in the real world. Bookies will eventually
close accounts or apply stake limitations etc.

Longer term strategy might be seen as two phase.

Phase 1 is when you are free to follow your decided upon staking approach.

Then if all goes well at some later stage with your swollen bank you will enter Phase 2.
Phase 2 will have your stake per bet set not by what your ideal strategy might desire but
more so by what you can get on in the real world at acceptable odds.

The compounding concept is not a forever to infinity sort of thing.
More so done well and semi sensibly it can transport you to the zone
of future Phase 2 style problems.

If you are having Phase 2 style problems well you are likely doing pretty ok.
Well assuming you are a straight punter.
Bonus abuse & arbitrage style punters tend to get hammered much faster by the bookies.

 

Want The Spreadsheets?

Some people like spreadsheets others don't.
If you want them just reply and ask and I can forward them to you.

If you are semi spreadsheet literate you could probably edit them to suit.
How about an extra column for example to stress test a reduction in odds by % X

Worth noting that longer term clients here won't care diddly squat
about my spreadsheet. More key will be their own personal record
of real world returns. Guy's message might have suggested 9/2 at major bookies
but they snagged 5/1 somewhere else. Or for an each way selection
perhaps they took a 5 places option available at only one bookie
whilst Guy settled at 4 places. Our record would show a loss
but they would have landed the place payout.

That said out own spreadsheet is a good starting point.
It will be useful for researching sensible zones of Account Bet staking approach.

Then apply degrees of safety to suit your good self and your circumstance.

Anyhow If you are an Account Bet only sort the Weekender Service
has been the better value route to getting about 90% of them over a year.

The Weekender Free trail is live now at

https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/weekender/saveguineas.php

 

 

Thirsk Hunt Cup Stats Research

Saturday 2nd May - Thirsk 2.40pm

Horses aged 4-5-6
Have the best record

Go back to 2005
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 1-75 record in this

That winner was in 2022
That was a falsely run race
Last to first winner at 66/1
The leaders went off too fast

Official ratings

102 82 92 91 86 92
93 100 86 90 91 88
87 84 86 88 88 91

None won rated over 102

Horses rated 94 or higher
Have a weak 2-62 record

Horses aged 6 or older
Rated 92 of higher
Have a 0-55 record

No horse has won
When rated 81 or lower

High weights struggle
Horses with 9st 8lbs + are 1-26
That winner was last year

No 4yo has won this
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more

Horses aged 5 or more
Rated 93 or higher
Have a 0-59 record in this

Recent runs are important
15 of the last 19 winners
Ran within the last 28 days
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Absent longer are 28 days
Have a 0-17 record in this

Horses with 10 or more runs
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 9st or more weight
Have a 0-32 record in this

Last time out winners are 2-29
Those running this season 0-21
Those with over 9 runs are 0-21

No winner came from 6f or shorter
None dropped from 1m 3f or more

No horse won from stall 1 (0-19)

Horses drawn 1-2-3
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-28 record in this

David O'Meara is 0-25 in this
Tim Easterby is 0-28 in this

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