Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

The Cheltenham market disruption this
week was the news that Annie Power
is injured and will miss the Cheltenham Hurdle.

The news was quickly posted up by a
member on our own full member messages boards.

Guy's board reply was " I am not surprised"

When asked "Why were you not surprised?"

He replied

"I suppose its because she is 9 and has been off a long time now
And Willie tends to speak with Forked Tongues at times
So when he says she is fine it usually means something else !! "


I guess an interesting question that arises is

"Should the betting public trust what a Trainer says?"

I'd suggest that as in many things in life the
answer is neither black nor white but a bit grey.

There will be many instances of a Trainer openly
calling a spade a spade in honest clear language.

At other times he may have interest in protecting
or even inflating a market price.

And the same Trainer may veer one way or the
other dependant on the precise situation.

I suspect it can be down to their own
touch and feel about the horses owners.

It is the owners after all who predominantly
provide training fee cash flow to the Trainers.

Some owners may just be about the prestige of winning a race.
Perhaps the horse is just an excuse for the odd corporate day out
to entertain clients with.

Other owners however may very much be about
having a decent punt at an opportune moment.
Such owners may very quickly find a more discrete Trainer
if they judged their current one responsible for smashing prices
instead of being helpful to them in raising them.
A Trainer with a blabber mouth reputation would
also find it more difficult to pick up new owner clients.

It's an order of duty of care issue I guess.

The Trainer's primary duty of care will be to himself and protecting cash flow.
That is assisted by a strong duty of care to his paying customers the owners.
Quite a bit further down his priority list will be the punting public.

A semi interesting zone of future research may be to analyse
trainer comment and cross reference it against owners.

The theory would be that useful patterns may be gleaned
that could help determine with greater accuracy when to trust
a Trainers comments and when to ignore or even oppose them.

That might be an interesting future project for us or for you.
The task could be made simpler via an initial single trainer focus etc.

Right now however we reply on Guy's decades
of experience and unique human brain to interpret
and decide if what is said is what is meant.

It is much the same with racing stat data.
Data is only really useful if one can interpret it
and use it to determine where the value lies
( if there is any ) in any unique race event.

Our usual cheap Saturday only option is available at

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www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

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Note you need to book in prior to 11 am Saturday
else you miss it for this week.

Guy has had a quiet week on the official bets.

Just the one so far but he is hopeful
for something of strong interest Saturday.

The one official bet he did have however
did win.

It is copied below for you for those interested in the
rough style of analysis Guy works hard to provide here.

Best of Luck
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

C a t t e r i c k 1.25

2/1 Floramoss, 5/2 Idder, 11/4 Cracking Find
8/1 Desert Point, 8/1 Test Pilot, 33/1 As And When
33/1 Robertson, 40/1 Glorious Dancer, 100/1 Derrydoon
100/1 Devils Water, 100/1 Warksburn Boy.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 3f

IDDER won a maiden hurdle last time
Horses aged 6 doing that had a brilliant overall record
Most were lighter raced than he is
I have to in all honesty make him a neutral
But I am struggling to find sensible opposition

FLORAMOSS is a Mare
She has had only 1 hurdle run
Her profile is questionable at the very least
Female horses
Coming from a hurdle race
Under 3 hurdle starts
In all similar races over 2m 3f and 2m 4f
These female horses have a 0-71 record
FLORAMOSS looks risky to me

DESERT POINT has raced once over hurdles
Hammered in that race
I questioned his stamina that day
Jurys out he not a guaranteed stayer

Horses aged 5
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from a Non Graded hurdle
Beaten over 12 lengths last time out
Have a 0-118 record in similar races since 2008
TEST PILOT has this 0-118 profile
DESERT POINT has this 0-118 profile
Begs the question whether they did enough last time

CRACKING FIND is starting to look flattered
His win came when he was 50/1
Two heavy defeats since are offputting
His numbers are ok though so not ruled out

IDDER does look the solid option

But her Racing post Hurdle numbers are 98 98 98
Hardly progressive or impressive
And don't forget she only has a neutral profile

CRACKING FIND by comparison
Has Numbers of 119 101 102
Her 2 recent flops
Are better than all IDDER's runs
Better than every other horses numbers
So I am going to make her the number 1

If my hunch is right
And CRACKING FIND went off too fast last time
Then we could have on a brilliant bet here
But I can't watch the video of her last race
Which means I can't take a strong view about that

£4.00 Each Way CRACKING FIND 4/1 [WON]

£2.00 Win Bet IDDER 11/4-3/1

 

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