It is Saturday tomorrow so time for a memory jog that
we are still very much alive and kicking here.

Last Saturday

Not the most amazing Saturday ever but decent enough.
Stakes were returned on the main Account bet so no
glory nor damage there.

From the additional eight racers analysed a further three
again boke even due to insurance horse wins.

There were two losers.

Then three winners to create a profitable day.

If interested in viewing analysis style, you may view the full complete message here.

https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/2026/horse-racing-tips-Ascot-17-01-2026.php

The three winners were Zues Power, Northern Empire and Vincenzo.

 

Over all it was probably a day that demonstrated the benefit of Guy's slightly tight staking style.
Each way or the use of an insurance horse help provide a significant reduction in the amount of races where the bookie keeps all of one's stake.

Such thoughts however are often rooted in individual personal taste.
Perfectly viable as well is ignoring each way or insurance horses
and going win only on the main horse. It would just be a matter
of pre planning for increased volatility. Apt in such a choice would be
a bank of a bigger number of points in your bank or using a lower % of bank as stake.

Out of interest analysis of the historic official bets here
ignoring Guy's eachway staking and going win only does yield
a higher points profit won and profit on turnover at level stakes.

BUT

Advantages to the more cautious approach would include

- Reinforcing the nut behind the wheel will result in less accidents.
Many human brains are better mentally suited to a steadier approach than one
of significant up and down swings.

- Often increased bank building ability where decreased lack of volatility can
permit increased total stake ( relative to overall bank ) on a race.

There is an old article in the Betting Thoughts section of our website that expands on this thinking. See the one called "Win or Each Way"

I used some old date here for that one, however core logics are applicable to ideas / methods of your own.

eg let's say for the sake of argument you had a personal niche of
compiling ratings for 16 plus runner handicap races.

Betting your top rated on the nose is idea #1
Perhaps that indeed you find is optimal from a level stakes profit perspective.
Losing runs however en route might cause a lot of mental pain.

Idea #2 - Going each way would smooth the ride emotionally.

Idea 3 - Perhaps also dutch or insure with your 2nd and 3rd rated.

Reduced volatility / bank drawdowns can argue for an increased % of bank stake.
Each win can then boost your bank by an increased degree.
The bank builder does not care about how many level stakes points he has won.
He cares about by what percentage his bank has increased.

But of course you need to be wary of throwing in rubbish
just to reduce fear of losing on the day. IF you knew for example that your
top rated had long term 15% edge , 7% edge on the 2nd rated but negative 5%
on the 3rd rated, omitting those 3rd rated from any staking would be sensible.

 

Thank You Pricewise

Earlier in the week Guy declared to Full member clients that he was aiming to peak for Thursday's Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park.

This promise he kept with his main horse in the race NOW IS THE HOUR being advised when early odds were in the 10/1 to 12/1 range. A nice winner.
He also covered as insurance bets CAPTAIN CODY and ANSWER TO KAYF

However there was a degree of luck in that final selection.

After a lot of research into the race the day before he had gone to bed thinking Captain Cody would be his main horse. Eventual winner Now Is The Hour only a likely insurance horse.

So what changed his mind the next day at message send time?

Well The Racing Post's Pricewise did.

Pricewise threw their dart at Captain Cody.

Odds tumbled from the anticipated odds.

Thousands of riders on the lemming train kept pushing it shorter.

Should Guy stick to his original guns and make it his main selection for the race?

No. No way.

The numbers facts of his statistical shortlisting remained intact.
The "what is value?" equation however had changed dramatically.
NOW IS THE HOUR in light of the altered odds market data stood out.
It switched in Guy's head to the main bet and Captain Kody was relegated to an insurance saver.

So thank you Pricewise for forcing the switch.

A quote attributed to the great golfer Arnold Palmer is
"The more I practice, the luckier I get"

I think a similar style of luck applied here.

It is however an educational example.

Picture an imaginary event where a die is rolled at 12 noon each day.
You can punt on the numbers 1 to 6
The true odds for any individual number would be 5/1
The bookies might typically offer 9/2 any number as their early odds.

However on some days a big megaphone might shout to the population.
"I am feeling it will be a 4 today. I am least confident it will be a 5"

Demand for punting a 4 increases.
The bookies react to weight of money by adjusting their books.
There will be some mathematical aspect here as they seek
a balanced book and a guaranteed net win for the bookie
irrespective of which number rolls. However they also
love the sport of lemming raping. Anticipating a surge of those
who bet the name not the price, especially poor value will be offered up.

Some who bet 4 at low odds may not have heard the megaphone.
Perhaps their birthday in on the 4th and they always bet 4
irrespective of what the odds are on the day.

With the masses being dissuaded off the number 5
the bookies may decide to push that out. Perhaps to
11/2 or 6/1. They know it is value but they appreciate the
book balancing impact on the day.

Obviously enough in the die example it is preferable to be the one
betting on 5. The die punter who plans to win long term
will wait patiently for such opportunity.

Horse racing is obviously is slightly more complicated than
the above die rolling concept. The main divergence is that
true odds can be calculated with precision for a die roll.
With horse racing such calculations will be greyer and less accurate.
The bookies themselves can only best guess.

That said a lot of the die example shenanigans will hold true for racing as well.
Appreciate them and one's chances will improve.

We have no magic wand here.

The rough approach is to do a lot of advance research work.
Mix that with several decades of race reading experience.
Derive shortlists of somewhat credible statistical contenders.
All the above is often done the day before.

Then on the morning of the race.
Curse overnight / early non runners that force revaluation of a race.
Finally closer to message send time, make final decisions based on
market odds. Often the 2nd best horse from a statistical form viewpoint
will offer better value than Mr stat perfect.

Inventing a wonder system would be a lot easier.
But would it keep working for so long?

Anyhow I better shoot on before I waffle myself to sleep.

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