Happy New Year to you all.
Here's hoping any New Year resolutions you made remain intact
and have not fallen by the wayside already.
If already busted, well I hope you had fun breaking them.
As for this end, you are dealing with a world champion
New Years resolution specialist. About ten years ago I made a
resolution to never have any more New Year resolutions
and that particular one I have manged to stick to.
Getting back to the racing we are thank full of it being
deemed "elite" sport that can continue during lock down times.
"Elite" of course may be stretching things a bit on certain days.
Today for example sees a glut of all weather jumper bumper races.
As of right now the Cheltenham Festival is still on.
I noted Paddy Power a few days ago go offer Non runner No Bet
on all Cheltenham ante post race markets.
Hopefully a few others may soon follow suit to add extra competition
to NRNB market odds.
Speaking of Cheltenham I have at email base below for you
a piece from Guy about the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
where he discusses a horse he has had a few ante post shekels of his own cash on.
What About This Saturday?
The rearranged Welsh National at Chepstow will
hopefully be a main race for the day assuming
the course passes inspection.
( looking likely as I type this morning and
firmer "all good to go" info may be available when you read)
Guy has done a fair bit of advance research work on the race.
He already has his provisional stat matching shortlist worked out.
Final conclusions will be in his Saturday message.
Another race he gave full members a bit of advance research work for was the
Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle Stats at Kempton.
I have copied these below for you in case you have an interest in that one.
Again his Saturday message will take these raw trends and develop them into
potential selections. Multiple other Saturday races he will be looking at also.
The Saturday message can be purchased for just £3 if you fancy it.
The 10 Saturdays for £25 option better suits Saturday regulars
who do not want the hassle of having to book in each and every week.
BOOK IN FOR SATURDAY
Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle Stats
Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
11/2 Everglow 8/1 One True King 8/1 Misty Whisky
8/1 Glynn 10/1 Shang Tang 11/1 The White Mouse
12/1 Solo 12/1 Hunters Call 14/1 Amour de Nuit
14/1 Castle Robin 16/1 Big Bad Bear 16/1 Boreham Bill
16/1 Shinobi 18/1 Mount Mews 18/1 Mahler's Promise
18/1 Dhowin 25/1 Polish 25/1 Exod'ela, The Cashel Man
66/1 Gerolamo Cardano
8 Past renewals
Past winners career runs
9 23 8 14 14 7 7 6
Past winners hurdle runs
6 9 4 8 6 3 7 4
Winners runs since August
1 5 1 3 2 3 3 1
3-8 hurdle runs
Under 16 lifetime runs
Run 15 to 57 days ago
Rated between 130 and 145
Not coming from Grade 1-2 races
Horses with 3-9 hurdle runs
Have dominated this contest
All past 8 winners had that
Horses with 10 + runs are 0-35
Under 16 lifetime runs are best
Horses with more are only 1-30
Horses aged 9 or more are 0-11
Every past winner was a gelding
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-14 record in this race
Every past winner
Had absences of 15-57 days
Every past winner
Had at least 3 runs in 12 months
Horses from Grade 1-2 are 0-6
Every past winner
Started 12/1 or less last time out
Those started longer were 0-24
Horses from a Chase
Have won 3 of the 8 renewals
The 2020 2018 2013 winners
Horses from Handicaps
Have a 4-84 record in 8 renewals
None were aged 8 or more (0-20)
None ran within 3 weeks (0-24)
Ante Post Cheltenham Festival
This is a snippet from the Future Betting Angles sub section
of the full member service earlier in the week.
The raw idea of these percentage club bets is that one may place 20%
of one's normal stake on them. The lower stake is I guess a tip of the hat
to the usual additional risk associated with ante post.
Hope and expectation would be that ante post risk is more than off set by
odds now being greater than on future race day.
Quick point to note:
Shortly after Guy sent the below Paddy Power announced non runner No Bet
on all Cheltenham races. As I type you can get 5/1 Galvin true antepost else where
or 4/1 NRNB at PPower. Each to their own with regards to extra reward
or less risk but personally I would opt for the comfort of NRNB protection.
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
20% Win Bet
He looks a good candidate
The Ante Post favourite
Very progressive form
His numbers are good enough
To win most past renewals
Trained by a Master
Gordon Elliot loves this race
Has won it 4 times in 10 years
3 times won with horses
With 107 134 78 day absences
Laid out for the race all season
Heads straight to Cheltenham
So can't get beaten beforehand
GALVIN has proven track form
Second at last years festival
When he had 105 days absence
Imperial Aura rated 143 beat him
That horse is now rated 163
Long gap back to the 3rd horse
GALVIN should stay well
Sires had 3m 5f + winners
Bred a 4m Eider Chase winner
Stamina on the dam's side
Damsire won the St Leger
Stayed all day in Group 1 races
He looks the real deal to me
He will have a top class jockey
Cheltenham Banker ?
Much too early to commit
That would just be silly talk
But Galvin has the potential
A 20% stake right now
Means we can not lose on him
We have the option later on
To fully commit to him if it suits
Or bet something else instead
And very safe in the knowledge
GALVIN is onside to protect us