We will be jumping around in time today.

- First a look backwards to the previous free newsletter.
- Then a small step forward looking to this weekend with some data for the Munster National.
- Then a big jump forwards all the way to March with news of a
Cheltenham Gold Cup horse that Guy has placed a few shekels of his own cash down on.

As ever no hard sell from me here about our paid services.
If interested in those just visit our home page at
https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
From there you can easily find options for
Saturday Only, Weekender or Full service

#1 - Cambridgeshire Lookback.

In the last free newsletter I passed on some research data for the Cambridgeshire.
As it happened on race day despite putting many hours into said research Guy himself
somewhat decided to de prioritize it and prioritise other aspects instead.

Such stuff is normal enough with him.
Stats and data he will always treat as a starting base point.
Rough guidelines as opposed to rigid rules that can never be broken.

In this instance he justified breaking original researched stat rules
to nominate 14/1 Cambridgeshire winner BOILING POINT

His detailed reasoning may be read at

https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-saturday/cambridgeshire-2025.php

 

 

#2 - The Munster National

Guy sent the below out to Full members earlier in the week.
Most is still valid but obviously odds and declared runners
will always be in a constant state of flux.

The below is research plus an early brief initial view.
He will have more complete finalized judgements
ready in time for his Sunday message.

[ The Weekender service here is a decent choice
for those who just want racing analysis sent to
them for the weekends]

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Sunday

Munster National

Race statistics below

Before that a quick look

Just some first impressions

Munster National

4/1 You Oughta Know 5/1 Aspurofthemoment
7/1 Weveallbeencaught 8/1 Boston Rover
8/1 Talk In The Park 8/1 Pride Of Place
10/1 French Dynamite 10/1 Sea Music 12/1 Buddy One
14/1 Will Do 14/1 Yeats Star 16/1 Nara 16/1 Arctic Fly
25/1 Drumgill 25/1 Yeah Man 33/1 Yeah Man
33/1 In Excelcis Deo 40/1 Watch The Weather

First impressions

Just 17 horses are declared

May only get 11-12 runners

Field sizes are getting smaller
The last two renewals suffered
Both these winners exposed
And did not fit the race patterns
These are warning signs for me

The Topweights look weak

Buddy One 12/1
French Dynamite 10/1
Yeah Man 33/1

NARA is only a 5yo
Won't be selecting him

Two 6 year olds

Do not look safe to me

ASPUROFTHEMOMENT
BOSTON ROVER

Both are lightly raced
Both just 4 chase races
Neither are a good match

Need to look a bit closer
See if we can oppose them

Ante Post Statistics

Sunday 19th October

Limerick 4.15

Handicap Chase

Age of Recent winners

11 7 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 6
7 7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 10
10 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7

No horse aged 5 has won
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 2-86 record since 2007

The only 9yo winner (2022)
Was unusually lightly raced

28 of the last 31 winners
Were under 10 years old

One 10yo winner was lucky
Won in a really small field
One won when half the field
Were disqualified in the race

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

27 19 8 5 6 9 10 6 7
4 7 13 4 3 12 5 5 5

Snapshot of past winners

2024 - 11 Year old with 27 Chases
2023 - 7 Year old with 19 Chases
2022 - 9 Year old with 5 Chases
2021 - 7 Year old with 5 Chases
2020 - 7 Year old with 6 Chases
2019 - 7 Year old with 9 Chases
2018 - 7 Year old with 10 Chases
2017 - 8 Year old with 6 Chases
2016 - 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2015 - 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2014 - 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2013 - 7 Year old with 13 Chases
2012 - 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2011 - 8 Year old with 3 Chases
2010 - 8 Year old with 12 Chases
2009 - 8 Year old with 5 Chases
2008 - 6 Year old with 5 Chases
2007 - 7 Year old with 5 Chases

Only 1 past winner
Had under 4 Chase runs

That was 8yo Muirhead in 2011
Who had Grade 1 form to his name
He had 3 prep runs before winning

Horses with 14 + Chase runs
Won this in 2006 2023 2024

They won in small fields of 11-12
They all had 2 + runs that year
All came from the Kerry National

Horses from Kerry's National
Won in 2014-2019-2023-2024
They have a 4-61 record

Horses aged 8 or more
From the Kerry National
Have a 1-33 record so far

Past winners
Had the following days absences

25 32 252 316 10 35
72 224 22 74 25 64 37
17 25 132 172 170 18

Horses absent over 4 months
Won this race 6 times recently
They had 8 5 6 5 5 6 Chase runs

None with more than 8 chases
Won this with a long absence
Those that tried it were 0-27

Horses with 1 run this season
Running within the last 34 days
Have a worrying 0-30 record

Horses with over 4 chase runs
With just 1 run this season
Carrying 10st 1lbs or more
Return a 0-34 record in this

Most winners had 4-15 hurdle runs
All had fewer than 16 hurdle races

Only 1 horse has won this race
With more than 35 lifetime runs
That was last years 11yo winner

Almost every past winner
Had 13-34 Lifetime starts

The 6-year old winners of this
Both had 7 previous chase runs

Horses rated 145 or more
Have a 0-18 record so far

No horse aged 8 or more
Won with 11st 5lbs or more (0-14)

*******************************************************
*******************************************************

#3 - Cheltenham 2026 Gold Cup

Is it too early to be thinking about Cheltenham?
Probably yes but it can be hard to resist.

Guy has found one he likes for the Gold Cup.
[ based on current facts and odds ]

Ante Post can make one look a genius when it comes off.
Having an early price way in excess of race day prices is a nice feeling.
However it can often make a fool of you as well with stake lost to
the bookies satchel for a horse that does not even race.

Rest assured that Guy will not have remortgaged his house to stake this one below.
More so a smaller stakes dabble.

----------------------

Cheltenham 2026 Gold Cup

Inothewayurthinkin 7/2 Galopin Des Champs 5/1 Fact To File 6/1
Gaelic Warrior 14/1 Fastorslow 16/1 Majborough 25/1
Jango Baie 25/1 Lecky Watson 25/1 The Jukebox Man 25/1
Caldwell Potter Spillanes Tower Grey Dawning 33/1
Montys Star 40/1Gerri Colombe 40/1

A horse in the ante post market

Just looks ridiculously big to me

GAELIC WARRIOR 14/1

Said to be King George bound
Remain to be convinced he will
Mullins has never liked the race
But does not matter if he runs
It is a good trial race anyway

Not everyone

Has been convinced about him

But his form is high class

His profile will be strong as well

More than you can say
For stablemate Galopin Des Champs
Who will fail major angles as a 10yo

Inothewayurthinkin won last year

But it was quite a poor Gold Cup
He only had 8 opponents that day
This included several non stayers

I take the view

GAELIC WARRIOR is a better horse

Obviously it is a long way away

Much can change in the season

If as likely
We get to the spring circus
About where or when he will run

Will he go to to the Ryanair ?

For me there is little chance of that

They will not turn the chance down
Of winning the Gold Cup with him

No concerns for me about stamina
Even if he has won an Arkle chase

I think he starts favourite and wins

All the doubts
Will slowly get ironed out

He is 16/1 with Bet365
He is 14/1 with most firms

That looks far too big a price

He is my Gold Cup horse

GAELIC WARRIOR 14/1-16/1

------------------
Late Note: Full members got the above earlier in the week so it is a few days old.
However 16/1 is still available as I type at 365 and a few others.
Oddschecker's Cheltenham section is a bit up the left today with races missing for no good reason.
It is working better at AtTheRaces however should you be interested in checking latest odds yourself.