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I have a few stats and a "Miracle System" relating
to Haydock
for you below but first a bit of an update on recent service
action.
Guy had a well argued for official bet winner
IT DONT COME EASY last Saturday.
The next opportunity he deemed strong
enough for official bet status arrived on Wednesday.
There he split his stake across two horses in two races
with win bets on each horse and a smaller stake each way double.
Both horses won for another good day.
I have copied that analysis for below for you
to help give you a feel of his analysis style etc.
He can be quite selective at times with his official bet
action but according to my spreadsheet
they come with a decent edge of about 17.5%
assuming BOG upside is applied.
Good for bank building too.
eg If one started with £1000 back in Oct 2014
and kept betting 2.5% of your bank on each bet
at BOG, my spreadsheet indicates the original
£1000 would now sit at over £12k.
Deduct service fees and there is still
a lot of profit left.
Increase aggression level to higher than 2.5%
and that would have boosted growth significantly higher.
In real life of course an individual would face
certain issues a spreadsheet does not.
eg Bookies at some point deciding that your
business was not as welcome to them as
they first believed. For a good punter stakes in
the real world are often more so dictated by
what you can get on than what a spreadsheet
suggests.
Anyhow I hope his official bet wins on Saturday
assuming he finds something strong enough.
If you want to book in for Saturday here is the usual
link to the Saturday Day Pass.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
[ It's a simple one off small fee for a single Saturday only.
Book in in before 10 am Saturday ]
In addition to the Saturday only option of course
we also have the more classic monthly service
for more daily action
You can find the join page for that from our
site homepage.
Some of our clients have been with us for over 12 years now.
Perhaps if you join you will be be with us that long too.
Haydock Trainer Stats
Earlier in the week one of our longer term members
posted up a favour seeking request to Guy on our
full member only forums.
He was taking a small group to Haydock
on Saturday to celebrate his racing mad
father's 90th birthday.
He was hoping Guy could include a few
Haydock races on Saturday in his analysis
to improve their chances of a good day out.
I decided to run a few basic stats for him myself
centred around trainers at Haydock.
Really just a little bit of research that could help guide
his magic dart for any races he lacked better insight
or imagination for.
I stuck them on a web page for him.
You may as well have the links too.
#1 - www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/racing-data/haydock-trainer.htm
#2 - www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/racing-data/haydock-june-trainer.htm
#1 Considers Trainer stats for all Haydock races over the past
5 years.
#2 Considers just June stats for the past 5 years.
There would be pros and cons to each view.
#1 - Has the upside of greater sample size due to many extra
races outside of June.
#2 - June alone is better at highlighting trainers who may wilfully
train to peak
certain horses for June. [ many trainers do exhibit seasonal
/ monthly trends ]
Personally I think the optimum way to use stats of this ilk
is to
have them to hand and use them to help one form a better opinion
about an individual race.
Look at R A Fahey's totals on link #1 for example.
Hint: Scroll right to the bottom.
He has lot's of runners and is way over bet at Haydock.
Grasp that single fact and you will have extra edge over those
that are blind to such data.
Using stats to help form an opinion about an individual race
is
certainly Guy's core ethos here with all the stat research he
does.
Stat research of various shapes and forms he uses to help try
and create
a better picture of the race in his head. They help him define
where
value is likely to lie.
On the flip side many I know are attracted to the route of
lesser daily thought
and effort and much prefer the idea of a simple set of rules
or system.
Haydock Miracle System
So here is my simple so called Miracle System for Haydock which
is rooted
on the base stats above.
Firstly Tom Dascome came top on SP Profit on #1 above.
He had quite a high number of past runners
( which I deem good on sample size grounds )
So I chose him to do a bit of more refined digging in to.
I pondered three extra simple filters.
A - Handicap races or not ( he did better in handicaps )
B - Class of Race ( 3 and 5 he did best at )
C - Age of horse ( 3 year olds and 4 year olds were the best
zone )
So at Haydock back Tom Dascome in class 3 and class 5 handicaps
when he runs 3 and 4 year olds.
Apply those filters and produces the following results for
the past five years.
18 wins from 56 runs ( 32.1% strike rate )
Profit at sp of 109.8 pts
Profit at betfair
bsp (at 5% commission) of 194 pts
It will be interesting to see how that one
pans out over the year to come.
Miracle System Warning
At this stage it is worth pointing out what a system is.
My own definition would vary from your average
snake oil system vendor.
I'd define it as a set of form filters that the
market has under appreciated the importance of in the past.
It is quite possible for a past profitable system
to maintain it's strike rate moving forwards but
to then lose money due to average lower future odds.
Guy's own approach is much more resiliant to
such stuff because he never bets stuff just because
it matches a certain system or stat.
More so he is always asking which horse
offers the best value at today's odds.
Stats are simply one componant he uses to help create
a vision of a race in his knowlegable human racing brain.
In simple heads or tails coin toss terms
a simple system punter will have decided to bet
either heads or tails BEFORE they hear the odds.
A value punter like Guy would be more prone to say ..
"First tell me what the odds are and I will then decide
to
bet either heads or tails depending on which one
you offer me 11/10 on."
The philosphical foundations are quite different
between the two approaches.
One asks "Where was the edge in the PAST."
The other asks "Where is the edge in this unique race ..TODAY."
I could go on for hours about such stuff
but as most of you are probably asleep
already .. I better not :)
Not today anyhow.
Cheers
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
Copy of Guy's Wednesday Offical Bet As Quick Sample
of Analysis Style
NB All official bets are to a £10 nominal total stake.
Some however as per this one below have that
£10 nominal stake split up across more than one horse.
It is not about a real life £10.
It is more so about ratio of stake.
Odds are rough market price at time of send
NOT absolute top price at one ricky small bookmaker
Sometimes SP is less. Sometimes it is more.
eg Titus Secret below was backed into 11/8 SP
Deeds Not words on the other hand drifted out to 9/4 SP
Both Won.
===================
Today's Bet
Wolverhampton 2.50 - TITUS SECRET 2/1
Wolverhampton 3.20 -DEEDS NOT WORDS 13/8
£3 Win Bet on Each Horse (£6)
£2 Each Way Double on Both horses (£4)
Neither of these are bankers
But they are clear choices
I felt TITUS SECRET had a great chance
Trouble with these races
It only takes one horse to beat you
We are a bit exposed as a win bet around 2/1
DEEDS NOT WORDS offers a similar dilemma
We can spread the risk by combing both horses
We could go each way double
That was a legitimate option as well
WOLVERHAMPTON 2.50
9/4 Titus Secret, 3/1 Insolenceofoffice, 8/1 Classic Flyer
8/1 Forever Yours, 10/1 Captain Scooby, Goadby
12/1 Justice Rock, The Perfect Show, 16/1 Secret Look
25/1 Joaldo, 33/1 Tamarin.
6f Handicap for 0-62 rated horses
Not too many can win this
SECRET LOOK may be well treated
But none of his last 4 runs would take this
He has not ran a good race since last August
Following a downgrade it stable
INSOLENCEOFOFFICE is drawn 1
Results since 2016 show that's a problem
Horses drawn 1 over 6f here
Have a 0-101 record in Handicaps
Have a 1-122 record in fields of 8 or more
INSOLENCEOFOFFICE has the worst draw
Some of these do not look fit enough
JOALDO and TAMARIN look unfit
GOADBY is underraced as a mare
CAPTAIN SCOOBY is hard to like
He is an 11yo running very modest numbers
JUSTICE ROCK has a 0-36 lifetime record
Not the biggest or most attractive of horses
If you look at horses aged 4
Who have 17 or more career starts
Those absent more than 30 days were 0-42
JUSTICE ROCK fails this 0-42 record
His 0-36 record is hard to ignore with 6 weeks off
CLASSIC FLYER has a very average profile
Up in distance running modest races right now
Statistically he could pop up
But not threatening at races going off big prices
Not convinced this is the day for him
THE PERFECT SHOW comes from a recent 5f race
Horses aged 4 from a 5f race
Running within the last 2 weeks
Beaten over 3 lengths in that race
Have a 0-26 record
THE PERFECT SHOW fails this 0-26 record
Which shows he didn't do enough last time
FOREVER YOURS could be a saver
But if you look at 4 year olds
Coming from 6f or shorter
Under 9 career starts
Running in the last 25 days
You find a 0-28 record with these horses
FOREVER YOURS fails this 0-25 record
He is very inexperienced for a 6f handicap here
Especially when carrying topweight as well
TITUS SECRET looks a big runner
He is fit and running well
The Racing Post question his all weather form
They argue the switch to the sand may not suit
As he has lost his 5 races on Sand pretty easily
That is not a safe conclusion
It included his first 2 career runs
When not fancied at 33/1 and 40/1
His other 3 defeats were at 66/1 25/1 12/1
Not in races he could have won
Far too early in his career to have significance
He looks a massive runner to me
Selection
TITUS SECRET 2/1
Win Bet
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.20
9/4 Deeds Not Words, 5/1 Mr Chuckles,
5/1 Strictly Carter, 6/1 O Dee, 7/1 Doctor Parkes
16/1 Generalyse 20/1 Jeanie's Place
33/1 Spirit Of Gondree
6f Handicap
8 runners at the moment
DEEDS NOT WORDS looks the one
Won last time off a rating of 61
Has backclass and has come down the weights
He has never raced at Wolves before
But I dislike any of his opposition
His highest rated danger O DEE has 279 days off
DOCTOR PARKES is now 11 years old
And has to come up from a 5f race
STRICTLY CARTER has a weak profile
If you look at horses aged 4
Who have 17 or more career starts
Those absent more than 30 days were 0-42
STRICTLY CARTER fails this 0-42 record
The same profile Justice Rock fails in the 2.50
If I can get the above 3 horses beaten
Then he only has a 0-55 class field left to beat
MR CHUCKLES could be a danger
DEEDS NOT WORDS may have more class
Selection
DEEDS NOT WORDS 13/8
Win Bet
[This is an online webpage copy from our free
horse racing newsletter that we
converted to a webpage]
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