Hi Folks

#1 - Ultima Handicap Bad Favourite?
#2 - Want An Earlier Cheltenham Deal?
#3 - Last Saturday
#4 - Greatwood Gold Cup Research [This Saturday]

#1 - Ultima Handicap Bad Favourite?

Over the past few days for Full members
Guy has been including extra in his messages
regarding the upcoming Cheltenham Festival in March.

I pulled out one little snippet to share with you regarding
the Ultima. Everyone will have different tastes but
I personally always like a bit of data that gives reason
to downgrade a favourite.

Guy said:

"Go back to 1997
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases
Any class
Any distance
Horses aged 7
Under 3 runs in 6 months
Running within 95 days
Return a 0-53 record

Why I tell you this

Tuesday Cheltenham 3.20

Ultima Handicap

JAGWAR

Favourite for this race
Will fail this generic angles

Looked at every 7 year old
Run in a festival handicap chase
Who had under 3 runs that year
None have managed to win yet
JAGWAR will be first if winning "

I guess we will see after Cheltenham how that stat pans out.
Will it then read 0 winners from 54 or 1 winner from 54 ?

 

#2 - Want An Earlier Cheltenham Deal?

This bit really is an unprepared last minute idea for the newsletter.
We usually put out a half price month deal just before Cheltenham.
timed so said cheap month covers not only Cheltenham but
all the way till the end of the Aintree Grand National Festival.

We will indeed offer this again in March closer to Cheltenham.

However a few people asked me via email this week if
they could come in on the half price deal right away.

The negative side of that would be the cheap month would end before Aintree.
However the positive would be you being in the service for the run up to Cheltenham.
As per above about the Ultima Guy usually throws in quite a bit extra of early research
work and thought in the few weeks before Cheltenham.

So pros and cons and more so about what you yourself may value more
to be included in your cheap month time.

As indicated above it is a very last minute idea for me to cite this in the free newsletter.
I have no webpage set up for it.
But I would be able to sort a super no frill basic one later today.
So if you do have interest in going early just email reply and confirm your interest
and I will email you back with a link once I get said webpage sorted.
[ Any such email I receive before 8pm tonight I will bar disaster reply to tonight]

 

#3 - Last Saturday

Another decent Saturday and another Account Bet Winner in ANTIQUITY.

One analogy for the service overall is to consider it a bit of a buffet.
Typically one does not go to a buffet and eat the entire table of food.
If you do ..remind never to invite you around for dinner.
More so you pick out the bits you want.

Guy's messages can be simplistically split into three bits.
At the base Profiles and Previews discusses ALL races he researched that day.
Above that the Final Deliberations section will highlight a few from the larger group
that Guy himself prefers most.
At message top assuming he has one may be an Account Bet

Reverting to the buffet analogy the Account Bet may be a platter
of fillet steak or lobster. Final Deliberations your chicken or prawn dishes.
Profile and Previews more so your rice, potato or salad dishes.

I guess a 4th section could be Best Bet if he has one.
Chump steak of exquisitely spiced chicken perhaps.

Clients may nibble according to the size of their own belly each day.

Last Saturday's top of message mentioned horses numbered four.
Three of them won as follows.

MARHABA PRINCE 7/4-13/8
ANTIQUITY 3/1-11/4
MISTER MOET 5/1-11/2

If interested the full warts and all message from last Saturday is viewable here

https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/2026/horse-racing-tips-Cheltenham-21-02-2026.php

 

#4 - Greatwood Gold Cup Research [ This Saturday ]

Guy had great success in this race last year.
Booster Bob at 18/1 - 20 /1 early odds was a 16/1 SP winner.
That old race analysis is here in case you have interest.
Many clients cite that they learn a learn from Guy.
His detailed reasonings are core to that I guess.

https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/2025/horse-racing-tips-Doncaster-01-03-2025.php

He shared some phase 1 research with Full Members mid week.
I have included that below for you.
Guy will be locked away in his research cave now
finishing this and other races off in time for tomorrow.
Horses need to be matched against the stats below,
shortlists created, going assessed and final judgements made in the morning
when market odds will be better defined.

Ante Post Statistics

Saturday February 28th

Newbury 3.47

Greatwood Gold Cup

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

19 Past renewals

Horses aged 6-7-8 are best

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a modest 3-110 record
One of them was a dead heat
Another was in a small field
With 5 of 7 runners aged 9 +

Recent winners of this
Had the following Chase runs

4 8 13 14 3 22 19 4 9
13 8 11 15 9 12 10

The best range is 3-15 chases

Horses aged 8 or older
Under 9 previous chase runs
Have a 0-41 record in this race

Horses with under 9 chases
Absent more than 35 days
Have a 0-36 record in this race

Recent winners of this
Had these runs that year

4 4 2 4 4 5 5 4 4 5
3 3 6 2 3 5 7 5 4

No horse has won with 1 run
Most won with 3 or more races

Horses winning last time out
Have a 1-45 record in this race

18 of the 20 past winners
Ran within the last 42 days

All 20 past winners of this
Ran within the last 70 days

Horses from 2m races
Won 4 of the 20 renewals
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 2m 1f or less
Have a 0-25 record in this

Past winners
Had the following official ratings
126 130 135 147 144 147 128
143 149 132 145 149 130 146
133 139 146 140 131 142

Horses rated 150 or more
Have a 0-20 record in this race

Horses with over 5 chase runs
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-26 record in this race

*******************************************************