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Two Items to touch on this week
#1 - A Keep It Tight Bet Winner Last Weekend
#2 - Cheltenham Gold Cup Advice On Saturday
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#1 - A Keep It Tight Bet Winner Last Weekend
Following on from Hasanoanda the Saturday before
Guy had another Saturday Account bet winner last
Saturday with Betsalottie.
I have copied his write up from last week below
for you if you are interested.
This Saturday's message I welcome you to book in for at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Guy will often use a "keep it tight" attitude with
his Account bets.
Core thinking there is that it is better to have a day
where invested cash is returned if things do not go 100%
according to plan than to have a day where it is all lost.
Last Saturday for example he had 50% of his stake on 7/1
Betsalottie and the other 50% on his other short listed horse
11/10 Taste The Salt as a bit of extra "insurance"
"Keep it tight" is a train of thought that starts
to make
a bit more sense as one's stakes rise.
Tipsters up and down the country will often try and
get you to focus on "how much you can win quickly".
Don't depend on their marketing departments
to give you good advice. New clients can be
encouraged in faster with hype about swift gains etc.
It is somewhat "the way of the world" but if you realise
it
you will be better positioned to see benefit in additional self
thought.
Instead ponder for yourself the potential longer term benefit
of having a strong eye of preservation of existing
capital in your betting bank.
Put a bit of thought to not losing cash
and you may end up net winning more.
Clients here of course are free to do as they choose.
The more adventurous may have opted to ignore
the insurance element short priced Taste The Salt provided
and instead would have went all in on Betsalottie.
We have clients here who will try and follow Guy to the letter.
Many others however will adapt minor points to suit themselves.
Insurance bets they may perhaps ignore.
Perhaps they go win only when Guy opts for a
more cautious each way etc.
Guy's primary aim is to try and identify the value in the race.
Staking style is then somewhat secondary and adaptable to personal
taste.
Guy's default Account bet style however is often rooted
with a strong eye on protection of stake.
He has a strong personal distaste for not
getting anything back from a bookie with his Account Bets.
A quick check using the data in http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/download/rolling-bank.xls
indicates that with 52% of his official bets he got some form
of partial stakes return or profit.
Such and attitude can help reduce losing runs or draw down
of ones bank.
Such thought trains I know many of you will deem "Not
Exciting"
and you may need to go out and suffer some bank busting pain
for yourself before
you see any sort of sense or logic in thoughts such as stake
preservation.
As a young buck if my silly old grandfather
had passed on to me the sage advice of
"Never hit a wasp's nest with a big stick"
Well that would probably have just made me want
to do the opposite and try it for myself.
Now with the painful experience under my belt
of knowing exactly what does happen when one is
genius enough to hit a wasps nest with a big stick,
I can advise as a world expert in such matters ...
Did you know?
- Wasps can fly faster than a young boy can run
- The swarm can also identify and single out the culprit with
the big stick from a crowd of more innocent bystanders.
- Some humans can just about survive 28 wasp stings to their
head.
That would be the core conclusions of my own personal research.
So better to stand back a safe distance and give
the stick to someone else if you ever want to repeat
the experiment for yourselves.
Or perhaps if you want to earn a reputation for yourself
as an expert in wasp nest whacking cutting edge research
you could try whacking it hard yourself then quickly saying
to your mate "Please hold this stick for a second."
The reaction of the swarm in that scenario remains an unknown.
That however is a bit of advanced research I am
quite happy to leave to the next generation.
Your Nobel prize awaits :)
You don't have to listen to me about wasps nests of course.
Feel free to experience life for yourself.
Nor do you have to listen to Guy about
bank preservation or tight bet staking.
#2 - Cheltenham Gold Cup Advice On Saturday
In his Future Betting Angles sub section today
Guy provided Full monthly members with
an interesting advance look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Running multiple stats and angles and mixed with a
bit of his own experience and knowledge he concluded
with his provisional shortlist of four horses.
One short listed horse that ticked several key stat boxes
caught my own eye at a big each way opportunity ante post price.
( bigger than 30/1 )
Guy will sometimes use this Future Betting
Angles sub section
to pass on to clients provisional prep work and insight for
upcoming big races.
Buveur Dair for the Champion Hurdle was a recent example.
Guy talked about it several times in FBA telling clients
he had backed it himself at 4/1.
A few weeks later he used Buvuer Dair when then priced at 5/2
in an official antepost Account bet
( doubled with Might Bite to win The King George on Boxing day
)
Buvuer is now circa 8/11
The 5/2 looks shrewd.
The earlier 4/1 even better.
Guy's analysis today for the Gold Cup could
look equally shrewd closer to the race.
Part of me wants to give it out to you now.
But on the flip side, Guy may be
of the mind that he will soon Official Tip one
of his short listed selections for Full members.
We have a small group of full members
but a few thousand on the free newsletter.
I can't risk crashing a price before
Guy has had a chance to fully consider potential
Account Bet ante post possibilities on the race.
Full member clients help put food on the table
for my kids. Eternal free newsletter subscribers do not.
Pragmatically I have to prioritise the rights of full members
first.
My compromise solution is that
I will send it on to anyone who is
in for this Saturday's Day Pass message.
That is usually just a small group on a Saturday.
Saturday Daypassers will get two messages this week
#1 - The usual Saturday Racing Analysis
#2 - A copy of Guy's Gold Cup thoughts from today.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
or of course if you join as a full monthly member
for more daily advice you will find Guy's message
for today in the member area under today's date.
It is an interesting piece on the Gold Cup
that is well worth a nosey if you have any inclination towards
an early slightly speculative ante post investment in the race.
Smaller stakes dabble territory I would peg it at this stage.
Best of luck with your racing this weekend.
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
Copy Of Last Saturday's Account Bet
Account Bet
Split your stakes
Lingfield 3.40
£5 Win Bet BETSALOTTIE 7/1
£5 Win Bet TASTE THE SALT 11/10
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NB - Guy uses the idea of a £10 total stake
if ever he needs to describe how to split a normal
unit stake across more than one horse.
It is not about actual £ and instead all about ratio
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Taste The Salt is the saver
Betsalottie is the main bet
Ladbrokes & Corals go 6/1
Betsalottie is 7/1 elsewhere
LINGFIELD 3.40
6/4 Taste The Salt, 6/1 Joyful Dream, 8/1 Betsalottie,
10/1 The Gay Cavalier, 10/1 Dawn Goddess,
10/1 Stringybark Creek, 14/1 Henry Grace, 16/1 Sexy Secret,
25/1 Cloud Nine, 33/1 Nicky Baby, 50/1 Bennelong.
10f Handicap
TASTE THE SALT is an Irish Raider
Joseph O'Brien has placed her well
She is the only horse that is progressive
She is down in class today
And meets some very modest horses
I opposed her early in her career
Given her sire and his record
I felt She was going over too far too early
She now looks like she could win this
Against some very basic opposition
THE GAY CAVALIER never seems to win
Doesn't look like doing so right now
On paper he is a serious threat
But he runs in snatches all the time
Doesn't look like he wants to bother
STRINGYBARK CREEK is hard to like
Taking a 3 furlong step up in distance
121 Similar races in January
Horses from 7f races
Running in the last 35 days
Show a 0-57 record
STRINGYBARK CREEK has this 0-57 profile
JOYFUL DREAM is a 4yo filly
She has raced just once in 74 days
She is only a small little thing as welll
SEXY SECRET is a 7yo absent 89 days
DAWN GODDESS is running low numbers
BETSALOTTIE looks a possible danger
Nothing special and has an average record
But has been shaping quite well recently
He must be one of - if not the fittest horse
He could be the danger to the O'Brien horse
This could be between the pair of them
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