There has not been a huge deal of activity official tip wise
since last week's newsletter.
Part of that was down to the weather and abandonments.
Abandonments mean little to the average mug shop punter
who just walks in for a punt on whatever is available.
They can be a bit more of a pain in the bum for Guy who may
spent hours fine detail researching races the day before.
I guess it's just the nature of the beast to expect hours of
to end up pointless on occasions over the winter months.
The other reason is Guy and his tendency to be relatively selective
with his official tip action.
Punting will always be a game where "quality trumps quantity"
Since I last spoke he has had two back bets.
#1 was a non runner due to meeting abandonment.
#2 was advised each way at 14/1 on Thursday and landed some
Additionally he had two lay tips or negatives one of which
the big name Cheltenham horse Peace and Co who could only
manage 3rd in a 4 runner race at a pretty short odds on price.
The other lay was Secret Door at around 2/1
So no huge quantity but a 100% strike rate
over the three firm advices that ran this week.
Three advised bets.
I have copied the core of his reasoning to oppose Secret Door
at the base of this email as I guess it's a quick example of
the sort of methodology Guy uses to find value for clients.
That methodology could be quickly summed up as working
super hard to unearth stats and angles that very few people
bother to attempt to look for. Use them to spot opportunity
where the market has got things slightly wrong.
Educated contrarianism is the name of the game.
Education about a particular individual horse race
is earned from lots of hard research work.
Contrarianism can be two fold.
It can be exploring angles and niches no others do
or using the hours of education you have put into a race
as justification to act contrary to what the majority are doing.
Peace & Co last week end was the sort of horse
that would have attracted a lot of mug punter cash
on it's fame alone.
Guy was advising laying it however as all his
hours of research told him it was a very poor value
horse to back in that race on that day at the price.
Come Cheltenham in a different race against
different opposition and at a different price
for all I know he may advice backing it.
If you want to win money picking your own horses
how best do you do it?
My simple answer is work very very hard each day
at research and then to have the discipline to
walk away from investment if there is no clear value.
Work Hard !
That's an answer few people want to hear so they stick their
fingers in their ears and refuse to believe it.
More appealing to their desires is smooth Mr Snake Oil
whose £19.9 five minutes a day system he promises
will soon have them driving a Ferrari.
Some of these miracle systems apparently work brilliantly
for racing in every country in the world they are that good
From the dirt tracks of the States to a boggy Plumpton
the miracle system can handle the lot.
The real danger of such things of course is not the price
paid for them it is the loss of cash you get from using them.
It's a bit like Michael Jackson perhaps.
He didn't want to listen to a doctor who might tell him to stop
taking the pills as they were medically unnecessary and actually
doing him harm.
Instead he hired a yes man who was happy to take wads of cash
to tell Mr Jackson exactly what he wanted to hear.
So if you are the sort who aspires to make your own profitable
bets do try and learn from Guy.
Don't think of some secret sauce or single secret angle.
Such stuff is not the answer you are looking for at all.
Instead just learn from the huge effort he himself puts in
that it is also going to take hard work by you too.
Acceptance of that fact has the potential to be a key
turning point in your punting life.
Do take inspiration from Guy that hard work
can indeed give you good edge and net profits.
If you don't want to put in the effort
you are probably better off not punting.
Membership here is I guess a reasonably
pragmatic mid range solution.
It may not hit the theoretical maximum ideal
of 100% self sufficiency in identifying your own
long term value selections.
But it does offer the vastly experienced and knowledgeable
racing analyst Guy doing all the hours of research on your behalf
to find opportunities of value. This is of great benefit if
do not have the free time to do your own home work or if
perhaps have not yet learned the skills to do.
Many sensible people find it a pragmatic solution and
have been with us as clients for years.
Greenhorn newbies and pie in the sky dreamers tend to
want to listen to someone else.
Anyhow yet again I see I have started writing one
thing and ended up with the usual too long winded
sideways rant about something different.
I should have just given you in one line
the usual memory jog about the Saturday Day Pass
Obviously of course we here prefer longer term clients
on full memberships for days over and above Saturday.
There is more info on our site about monthly membership etc.
I am here to give "call a spade a spade" style answers
any questions or queries you may have.
Enjoy your racing weekend.
Extract From Secret Door Lay Analysis
There is a statistic that looks interesting
January February March April May June July
Mares Novice Hurdles
Any Distance run during these 7 months
There are 524 of these races
Horses aged 5
Coming from a Maiden Hurdle
Just 1 previous hurdle run
There was a miserable 1-111 record
The only winner being Maid of Silk
SECRET DOOR fails this 1-111 record
In January-February the record was 0-37
This seems a solid statistic
12 of the 110 losers started under 3/1
Some were beaten at the following prices
2/11 1/2 4/5 7/4 1/1 11/10 4/6 7/4 11/4 11/4
SECRET DOOR is therefore opposed
PS Out of interest standard stuff such as jockey & trainer
stats etc Guy is far from oblivious of.
He tends not to bother commenting too much on it however.
It's almost open source widely available info.
There is little merit in attempting to find significant edge
using facts that are obvious to too many.