Post by Adrian

When I first read Mick's email, I thought I would be able to offer some sage words of wisdom, having been a long-term gambler and member of this service. However on reading your answers I think you are doing great and are ahead of me in the wisdom stakes.

For the benefit of other members I offer the following observations.

Firstly manage yourself and eliminate mistakes. I am a gambler, I enjoy taking risks, I enjoy betting and I enjoy winning and hate losing. I say this because the profitable bettors I know tend to be indifferent to the actual result, they just bet to an edge they believe they have in any given situation. My worst mistake is betting when I have had a drink, my second is increasing stakes without having a sufficient bank to weather the inevitable poor periods and my third mistake is not setting aside a bank I can afford to lose and betting within the confines of that bank and the expected winning and losing runs. I have managed to put steps in play to minimise these mistakes happening but every so often I find a way to circumnavigate them! and then have to find new ways of eliminating that loophole!

Find your edge. You only make money when you are betting at a price that is better than the true odds. I know Guy would say knowing the correct price is almost impossible without 100% knowledge but all the bettors I know only bet when they believe the chance of a win is greater than the odds being offered. However getting an edge is difficult. There are three ways I know. Hard work, Using someone elses hard work, and technological/systemic advantage. I have tried the hard work approach particularly at the cheltenham festival and it works. There is no better feeling than having analysed a race and studied all the likely players and see a race pan out how you thought it would. However finding value bets is not that easy especially latterly when accounts have been closed and markets are too tight or not liquid enough, and for me the actual number of bets I could stake to make money were insufficient and often outweighed by the bets I had because I didn't want to waste all my work! I know bettors who are very profitable because they saw an edge. Betting on German racing when they had a 2 second advantage over the market, betting on photo finishes when they were prints because they had pieces of string on their tv aligned with the finishing post, (I kid you not), they made a lot of money early on on Betfair when there were a lot of mugs around who thought it was easy and from the extra places on Bet365 and on tricasts in small field jumps races where the firms algorithm was wrong. For me the only real edge I can now get is using someone elses expertise and that for me is Guy. I have tried almost all services and Guy is by far the most transparent, hard working and useful service I have ever known. Yes there are tipsters who make money and know what they are doing but without most betting accounts the ability to beat the market price is difficult.

I feel I should go on but as I say you are already way ahead of me, but welcome to the best service around and may you continue to be profitable and enjoy a service that Guy has worked tirelessly for a long time

Follow-up by Adrian

I forgot to say how I use Guy's service, which was the actual request!

As I have said I am a gambler at heart and so I like to bet daily. I enjoy the placing of bets and of recording them and of anticipating the races and watching the actual race. Sad as it may sound it gives structure to my day.

I have a fixed amount to invest each day, currently £60 and stake the account bets normally to £40, and any selections mentioned in the top of the message to £20 or £30 and then if there is any stake remaining I bet in time order £10 per race. Like Simon where there are saver bets I stake up to £10 regardless of Guy's advice because I want to make a profit. In fact my favourite races are these dutched bets, especially in races where the first or second favourite is "unsafe". I do try to take account of Guy's language as I really want to put more on those messages where he is confident, and less on those where he reports he is getting tired. First and last messages in a run are normally treated with a little caution, but in reality I tend to keep my staking fairly consistent. I have to place almost all my bets via Betfair as I only have a few accounts and none with BOG anymore. My results suggest that bookies are quite difficult to win with. The odds up to a race are normally poor and without BOG I find betting to SP is a better option but not one I really want to risk. Bet365 were the best by far with odds, places and BOG but after having four closed or heavily restricted they are a distant memory.

I do follow Guy's ante post bets and when it comes to Cheltenham I read every analysis very carefully to identify races and horses to target.

As I said previously I do believe Simon is already ahead of me and I can offer little help or add much of interest. I suspect that would also explain why very few other long term members have offered their thoughts.

Wishing you good health and profitable times!

Email from Mr Black

Hi guy/ mick,

I play the email this way .

back everything £7.5 ew except account bets which I back 10 ew .

If too short 2/1 or less then it's £15 win

The only caveat I have is if bet 365 boost the horse I leave it out as 80% of bet 365 boosts lose.

Now if bet 365 superboost a selection I will have £40 on as 60% of these tend to win as I find it's a gimme from them to suck you in to back there losing boosts. Also if guy puts up a negative and it's also a boost I will lay it.

Mr Black

Email from Mr Brown

Hi Mick,

Your recent message from a subscriber was interesting and having thought about it for a few days encouraged me to put pen to paper - well fingers to key boards perhaps more accurately.

I am 79 years old, a son of a course bookmaker, who wasn't around all that much when I was a child, but the old visit with him to Yarmouth races when I was really young sparked my interest in betting on horses, and one way or another I have continued my interest since about the age of 11 years old. Over the years I have developed my own way of reading form having read countless books and guides on the subject. I'm not a professional but my record in backing winners' year in and year out averages 2 winners in every 7 backed .

I subscribed to Guy's services a couple of years back and initially was not that impressed. It took several months to fully absorb his approach as it was and is very different to my own. I eventually rejoined just over a year ago and have been with him ever since, principally because it adds a useful addition to my own methods. And I understand what he is doing that much better.

Being a statistical man, Guy and, I guess you, will appreciate that I need to back winners at least at odds of 5/2 just to break even. So essentially, I seldom back at less than those odds - that's not totally set in stone as even I break my rule occasionally - but even Guy's selections at shorter odds I largely ignore. I haven't studied his win to losers ratio on outright selections (which are at short odds) but would estimate they are not too different from my own. Whilst I was initially disappointed with my own win ratio, closer inspection shows that I am at least the equal to if not a few percentage points better than Timeform's top selections. Laying many short-priced favs is infinitely more profitable than backing them. I am sure Guy's approach does too.

I have also found that winning on single selections overall is a painstaking occupation and not that rewarding long term. Discipline, patience and a large bank are essential.

The thing I like most about Guy's approach is his ability to identify decently priced ew selections. And the bets I prefer by far are ew doubles and ew trixies which I have been able to identify from his approach to certain races, particularly handicaps. Of course, they don’t come every day, and his approach to backing savers - something I have never previously considered can certainly minimise losing runs on what I would call 'ordinary' days where there is nothing particular to whet my appetite. I usually read those races Guy choses extremely carefully to see whether I agree in general terms to his conclusions. But backing ew doubles and trebles is the only way in my book to achieve decent returns.

My own analysis of a race takes class above all other considerations, and this is especially so in handicaps. Not everybody fully understands how to identify class despite the comprehensive analysis available in the Racing Post, so plenty good 'working mens' prices are there to be had. Of course, form, recent outings, jockeys, going, racecourses and the draw all play apart. And with the advent of Betfair, nothing is hidden from backers these days, and looking closely at where the money is or isn’t also plays a big part warranting consideration.

Using Guy's selections - he was really successful in identifying good priced selections last half June and early July which cleared me on the top side of £5000 for just £5 or £10 ew doubles and a couple of successful Trixies. Even yesterday there was a very tasty double to be had with Equity Law and Over Spiced. Guy seems to be coming back into form having had a pretty flat period for a few weeks.

Definitely the best service I have encountered, and I have to say I am amazed Guy can get his selections out so early...he must spend the early hours plus sorting them. I’d certainly like to know how/where he accesses the data he quotes, but guess he will likely keep that to himself, and who can blame him.

I have banged on a bit, but hope this was interesting of not useful, and I have no objections to you posting this online (even in an edited fashion) - as you choose.

Kind regards

Mr Brown

Email from Mr Green

Hi Mick,

I usually take the top selection and do Ew Patents or Ew Lucky 15s depending on the number of races covered.

I find that a lot of the time you may lose small or win small but it keeps you interested throughout the day.

Some days with 4 placed you get big profit and no winner.

That I like. Also when the stats are against favourites you can be against them on the exchanges especially when they drift.

That's my tuppence worth.

Mr Green

Reply from Mr Green

Hi Mick,

I don’t keep exact records on Ew Patents and Lucky 15s, all I would say is that I don’t have to deposit money very often and the withdrawal outweighs the deposits.

I’ve copped a few nice Ew Patents and L15s throughout the year to keep me in the positive.

Regarding the lays, I agree it’s better to let the client work out the weak ones and benefit then from the lower exchange price.

Further from Mr Green

Hi Mick,

Today we nearly had a good ew patent example.

and the other one