Royal Ascot Sample Message


This is a sample of an old day's racing.
Royal Ascot Day One 2023 as it happens.

At page base I have included my summary of results
as taken from the following day's message.
Don't worry too much about results I suggest.
A different day could have brought better or worse results.
Instead try and focus on the message style
and the level of research that goes into it.


 

 

Mathematician 4466
Tuesday June 20th


7 Previews
0 Account bet
 



Message Bets


No Account bet 



Today's Best Bet 

Ascot 5.00

£6.00 Win Bet NOVEL LEGEND 12/1

£4.00 Place Bet LAW OF THE SEA 6/4




Favourite Bets

Ascot 3.05 - River Tiber 7/4 
Ascot 6.10 - Vauban 6/4 
Each Way Double

Ascot 5.00
£6.00 Win Bet Novel Legend 12/1
£4.00 Place Bet Law Of The Sea 6/4


No target races today

First chance of any bet

Tomorrows Hunt Cup

Sending this one early


Need a heat start tomorrow


Truth of the matter is
I think the best bet today
Is the each way double

But awkward to get it on
So I went with the 5.00pm





Preview Selections
 
Ascot 2.30
£3.00 Each Way Triple Time 33/1
£4.00 Place Bet Native Trail 11/8-6/4

Ascot 3.05
River Tiber 7/4
Win Bet 
 
Ascot 3.40
£3.00 Each Way Twilight Calls 20/1-25/1
£2.00 Each Way Happy Romance  50/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
 
Ascot 4.20
Paddington 5/2-11/4
Each Way

Ascot 5.00
£6.00 Win Bet Novel Legend 12/1
£4.00 Place Bet Law Of The Sea 6/4

Ascot 5.35
£6.50 Win Bet Cadillac 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet Buckaroo 4/1-9/2
£1.50 Win Bet Francesco Clemente 11/2

Ascot 6.10
Vauban 6/4
Win Bet







Final Deliberations  
 
Day 1 of the hardest festival
6+ mm of rain's fallen today
Fingers crossed we do well
 
If by the time we hit Friday
If your not begging to stop
Then it's been a good week

In terms of any staked bets
If one comes up then fine
If not won't be too bothered
Want to get every race right
The rest will fall into place

Most bets I'd suggest Betfair
Will beat all advertised prices
And have extra place terms 


Ascot 2.30
£3.00 Each Way Triple Time 33/1
£4.00 Place Bet Native Trail 11/8-6/4

Quite like the strategy here
Get Native Trail in the frame
And we have a free hit at 33/1


There are two win singles
It may be a sensible option
To combine the pair of them

Ascot 3.05 - River Tiber 7/4

Ascot 6.10 - Vauban 6/4

Each Way Double



Ascot 3.40
£3.00 Each Way Twilight Calls 20/1-25/1
£2.00 Each Way Happy Romance 40/1-50/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
 
Betting 2 big priced outsiders
It's symmetrical day dreaming
Both are connected together
Through last time out Haydock
And through last years renewal
Probably asking a bit too much
But I am a sucker for symmetry


Ascot 4.20
Paddington 5/2-11/4
Each Way

Didn't really want to do this
But needs must and just felt
It was better than a split stake



Ascot 5.00
£6.00 Win Bet Novel Legend 12/1
£4.00 Place Bet Law Of The Sea 6/4

Novel Legend has questions
He started off as a negative
But after doing lots of digging
He turned out as the selection
Place saver is quite important
To try and protect a risky 4yo


Ascot 5.35
£6.50 Win Bet Cadillac 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet Buckaroo 4/1-9/2
£1.50 Win Bet Francesco Clemente 11/2

Shortlist based on generics
That I am not sure I can trust
If we manage to survive those
It comes down to staking luck


Ascot 6.10
Vauban 6/4
Win Bet






Generic Statistics

[ multiple reseached meeting specific filters used ro rule out the statistically unsound ]

The following horses fail
 
Ascot 2.30 - Lusail 
Ascot 2.30 - Pogo
Ascot 2.30 - Inspiral
Ascot 2.30 - Modern Games 
Ascot 3.40 - Equilateral
Ascot 3.40 - Twilight Gleaming
Ascot 3.40 - Annaf
Ascot 3.40 - Manaccan
Ascot 3.40-  Desert Cop
Ascot 5.00 -  Achnamara
Ascot 5.00 -  The Grand Visir 
Ascot 5.00 -  East Asia
Ascot 5.00 -  Urban Artist
Ascot 5.00 -  Irish Lullaby
Ascot 5.00 -  Ahorsewithnoname 
Ascot 5.35 - Savvy Victory
Ascot 5.35 - Certain Lad
Ascot 5.35 - Solid Stone
Ascot 5.35 - King Of Conquest
Ascot 5.35 - Checkandchallenge
Ascot 5.35 - Poker Face
Ascot 5.35 - Royal Champion
Ascot 5.35 - Saga
Ascot 5.35 - Bolshoi Ballet
Ascot 5.35 - Highland Avenue
Ascot 5.35 - Notre Belle Bete
Ascot 6.10 - Scriptwriter
Ascot 6.10 - Ruling Dynasty
Ascot 6.10 - Raymond Tusk
Ascot 6.10 - Alright Sunshine




Yesterday's Summary

Pre Ascot a shorter message
Only covered the 3 previews
Bated Breeze lost at Lingfield
He was said to be unsteerable
It looked a strangely run race
Like many there just laughable
Ranger Billy was a nice winner
That made sure we didn't lose
And chance of improving went
Tingarran Express fell at the 1st
Happy to settle for one winner






PROFILES & PREVIEWS  



Ascot 2.30

7/4 Inspiral, 2/1 Modern Games, 6/1 Native Trail
12/1 Chindit, 16/1 Mutasaabeq, 20/1 Cash
20/1 Light Infantry, 25/1 Berkshire Shadow
25/1 Triple Time, 33/1 Lusail, 50/1 Angel Bleu
100/1 Pogo.

Queen Anne Stakes

The market leaders
Both fail generic statistics

INSPIRAL is a 4yo filly
She has 8 career runs
She has 248 days off

Royal Ascot
Group 1 races
2m 3f and shorter
Over 6 runners
Fillies aged 4
Have a 0-55 record
INSPIRAL fails this angle

MODERN GAMES is a 4yo
He has 15 career starts now

Go back to 2000
Royal Ascot
Listed and Group races
2m 3f and shorter
Horses aged 4
Over 14 Lifetime runs
Have a 0-100 record   
 
Don't see him as a negative
He only fails this by one run

One of the alternative options

NATIVE TRAIL each way

Just have a slight concern
That he's weak in the market
 
TRIPLE TIME 33/1

Interesting outsider
Trainer say he is special
Kevin Ryan can overate
Reservations about stable
But he is a massive price
Has some very smart form
He does need to improve
But he's only had 6 races
And this is not a big field
 
Rather than the favourites
Who can be questioned
I'd rather split stake this
Knowing a place is enough

CHINDIT was considered
As a £2.50 each way bet
Combined with Triple Time
He is drawn 12 of 12 runners
Decided to play it differently
One half going for a big win
The other there as the saver

Selection

£3.00 Each Way TRIPLE TIME 33/1

£4.00 Place Bet NATIVE TRAIL 11/8-6/4

 




Ascot 3.05

6/4 River Tiber, 100/30 Asadna, 5/1 Givemethebeatboys
11/1 Fandom, 14/1 Army Ethos, 14/1 Bucanero Fuerte
20/1 Emperor's Son, 25/1 Chief Mankato, 28/1 Bobsleigh
28/1 Cuban Thunder, 33/1 Haatem, Politico, 40/1 Buyin Buyin
40/1 Flag Of St George, The Camden Colt, Watch My Tracer
50/1 Packard, Spanish Phoenix, Zoulu Chief, 66/1 Prince X J
100/1 Ticktyboo, 200/1 Alfa Whiteburd.

Coventry Stakes

No significant angles
I would want to follow
 
On figures
3 horses stand out

RIVER TIBER from Aidan

ASADNA looks a big runner

What I dislike about her
She is drawn much higher
Among several outsiders
That may not be any help

Also troubles me
It was only Ripon he won at
The favourite he beat there
Had failed to win in 2 races
ASADNA wasn't even favourite
He was 4/1 to win at Ripon
Against a twice raced maiden
Now he shorter in a Coventry

Circumstantial evidence yes
RIVER TIBER is my preference

GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS
He is right there on the figures
His profile is not like a winner
He was sold only this month
Was not that expensive anyway
Felt he was a bit lucky last time
Don't see him beating Aidan's
But a place would be realistic

Depends how you want to bet

An each way double or single

Might appeal to certain styles

Selection

RIVER TIBER 7/4

Win Bet






 
Ascot 3.40

5/2 Highfield Princess, 7/2 Coolangatta
5/1 Dramatised, Manaccan, 12/1 Cannonball
20/1 Twilight Calls, Twilight Gleaming, 25/1 Marshman
25/1 Mitbaahy, 33/1 Bradsell, 33/1 Equilateral
40/1 Happy Romance, Mooneista, Vadream
50/1 Chipstead, Desert Cop, 66/1 Annaf
66/1 Existent, Raasel.

King's Stand Stakes

Group 1 (5f)

The following horses
All fail generic statistics
 
Equilateral
Twilight Gleaming
Annaf
Manaccan
Desert Cop

MANACCAN fails one
As well as this race stat

Horses aged 4
Just 1 run in 3 months
Have a 0-35 record in this
The following all fail this

MANACCAN
TWILIGHT GLEAMING
MITBAAHY

COOLANGATTA a 3yo filly
No negative even with a break
She is drawn in stall 2 though
And she fails this statistic
 
Go back to 2011
Royal Ascot
Group races
Any distance
Over 12 runners
Horses aged 3
Drawn 1 and 2
Have a 1-68 record
COOLANGATTA fails this
She may be able to beat it

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS a 6yo
Has a different problem here

Horses down in distance
Won only 3 past renewals
Those aged 6 or more
Have a 0-25 record in this
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS fails this

Horses down in distance
Had 5 2 13 career races
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS has 32
She is very exposed as a 6yo

CANNONBALL a foreign raider
Can not be ruled out at 20/1

MARSHMAN is a lively outsider

One of the best trial races
The Temple stakes 24 days ago
There were 7 winners from there
DRAMATISED prepped there 
Much will depend on stall 18
Will 1 run this year be enough ?

TWILIGHT CALLS ran there
5yo's score well from that race
Beaten a bit further than ideal 
But badly draw and eased
He ran in this race last season
Career best effort coming 2nd
 
HAPPY ROMANCE is similar
A 5yo from the Temple Stakes
Like Twilight Calls badly drawn
And ran in this last year as well
Only beaten 2 lengths in 2002
That was with a nasty absence

Not confident

But playing outsiders

Selection

£3.00 Each Way TWILIGHT CALLS 20/1-25/1

£2.00 Each Way HAPPY ROMANCE 40/1-50/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Ascot 4.20

2/1 Chaldean, 9/4 Paddington, 5/1 Cicero's Gift
8/1 Isaac Shelby, Mostabshir, 12/1 Royal Scotsman
33/1 Galeron, 40/1 Charyn, Indestructible.
 
St James Palace Stakes

Group 1 race over 8f (3yo)
 
9 runners

6 fancied

CHALDEAN won the Guineas

PADDINGTON the Irish 2000

No French Guineas winner
ISAAC SHELBY second there
But Brian Meehan so unreliable

Never been a great trends race
ROYAL SCOTSMAN is rejected
Looks held dislike the stable

The English 2000 guineas
May not be a vintage renewal
Aidan had 2 fancied contenders
Neither of those performed well
CHALDEAN benefited from that
He has stall 1 to overcome here
Will go well but going elsewhere
 
MOSTABHIR has much to prove
Going up 4 grades in class here
Don't mind that as lightly raced
But he is sired by Dark Angel

Dark Angel
 
His runners aged under 4
Over 8 furlongs and more
In Group 1 and 2 races
Have a 0-37 record to date
MOSTABHIR 38th to try this

The sires runners
In Group 1 races over 8f +
When absent over 14 days
Have a 0-42 record so far
MOSTABHIR 43 to try this

CICERO'S GIFT has 3 runs
He steps up from a Class 2
The 2020 winner did the same
That gets him on the shortlist

PADDINGTON also gets on it
Without any great confidence

Was tempted to split stake it
PADDINGTON being a win bet
Combined with a place saver
But with 9 runners managable
And expecting him to push on
And keep finding when asked
Decided to select him each way

Selection

PADDINGTON 5/2-11/4

Each Way






Ascot 5.00

2/1 Bring On The Night, 13/2 Ahorsewithnoname
11/1 Law Of The Sea, 12/1 Novel Legend
12/1 Calling The Wind, 12/1 Solent Gateway
12/1 Zinc White, 12/1 Zoffee, 16/1 Weston
20/1 Irish Lullaby, Pleasant Man, Urban Artist
25/1 Fleurman, The Grand Visir, 25/1 Tritonic
28/1 Themaxwecan, 40/1 Achnamara, Throne Hall
50/1 East Asia, Prince Imperial.
  
Ascot Stakes

2m 4f Handicap

The market leaders
From National Hunt yards

BRING ON THE NIGHT - W.P.Mullins

AHORSEWITHNONAME - N. Henderson

Nicky Hendersons 8yo mare
Fails a Generic statistic here

Royal Ascot
Every Handicap since 1997
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-79 record in them
AHORSEWITHNONAME fails

This is a separate generic
We've often used successfully

Go back to 1998
Handicaps over 1m 7f +
Run in Class 3 or higher
Any time of the season
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 41 days
Carrying 9st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-79 record in them

AHORSEWITHNONAME
Fails this generic profile

Other horses failing generics
Do not help us very much

Achnamara
The Grand Visir 
East Asia
Urban Artist
Irish Lullaby

Past winners
Had these lifetime runs

11 28 34 13 31 20 46 31 35 21 19
26 15 15 45 13 10 17 9 17 10 23

Horses with under 9 career starts
Have a 0-61 record since 2004

WESTON only has 7 runs
ZINC WHITE only has 7 runs
 
BRING ON THE NIGHT
Also only has 7 career runs
He was 2nd in last years race
Having raced 6 times before
And has not ran since then
 
TRITONIC has too much weight
FLUERMAN will do well to stay
From his sire with 74 days off

Possibles

ZOFFEE
CALLING THE WIND
LAW OF THE SEA
NOVEL LEGEND

NOVEL LEGEND is a 4yo
That age has won this before
But 0-54 going back to 2009
 
However

Look at certain types of 4yo

Horses aged 4
Coming from 2m or more
Beaten under 13 lengths
Running within 6 weeks
Between 5 and 10 races
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 5-10 record in this

Must admit
Did not really want a 4yo
But certain types score well
NOVEL LEGEND has this profile   

BRING ON THE NIGHT

Half of me knows he can't win
The other half knows he will 

Should we save on Mullins ?
A very unpleasant question
Too many that are shortlisted
 
Going to split stake this one


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet NOVEL LEGEND 12/1

£4.00 Place Bet LAW OF THE SEA 6/4






Ascot 5.35

7/2 Saga, 9/2 Francesco Clemente
11/2 Buckaroo 7/1 King Of Conquest
7/1 Bolshoi Ballet, 9/1 Cadillac
11/1 Poker Face, 11/1 Solid Stone
20/1 Checkandchallenge, Highland Avenue
20/1 Royal Champion, 28/1 Notre Belle Bete
33/1 Foxes Tales, 40/1 Raadobarg
50/1 Certain Lad, 66/1

Wolferton Stakes

10f Listed race

5 Past renewals

Generic statistics

The following fail them

Savvy Victory
Certain Lad
Solid Stone
King Of Conquest
Checkandchallenge
Poker Face
Royal Champion
Saga
Bolshoi Ballet
Highland Avenue
 
SOLID STONE too exposed
Many of the other generics
Are based only the draw bias
And that could let is down here
 
Ascot
10f races
Since 2012
80 of these races
No horses have won
Drawn in stall 13 or more
All 39 that tried have failed
The following all fail this

KING OF CONQUEST
CHECKANDCHALLENGE
POKER FACE
 
Since 2012
Ascot 10f races
With over 10 runners
Horses with over 4 runs
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3
Have a 0-54 record in them
The following all fail this

SAGA
BOLSHOI BALLET
HIGHLAND AVENUE

Feels with the generics
That are based on the draw
We are treading on egg shells
BOLSHOI BALLET an example
Should we rule him out drawn 1

Applying the angles

Shortlisting 3

FRANCESCO CLEMETE
CADILLAC
BUCKAROO


Selection

£6.50 Win Bet CADILLAC  9/1-10/1

£2.00 Win Bet BUCKAROO 4/1-9/2

£1.50 Win Bet FRANCESCO CLEMETE 11/2

 
Ascot 6.10
 
13/8 Vauban, 5/1 Absurde
15/2 Ruling Dynasty, 8/1 Point King
12/1 Chillingham, 14/1 Postileo, 16/1 Aaddeey
16/1 Berkshire Rocco, Sam Cooke, 20/1 Cemhaan
20/1 Gaassee, 25/1 Get Shirty, Raymond Tusk
25/1 Scriptwriter, 50/1 Charging Thunder
66/1 Alright Sunshine.
 
Copper Horse Stakes

Handicap 1m 6f
  
Only 3 renewals
 
VAUBAN is hard to oppose

Has to be on the staking

His market danger is not
He fails a generic statistic

Go back to 2004
Royal Ascot
Handicaps
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 4 or more
Under 4 career starts
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more 
Have a 0-49 record in them
RULING DESTINY fails this
If this statistic works out ok
Then the favourite is stronger

Go back to 2011

Ascot has had 31 races
Over this 1m 6f distance

30 of the 31 winners
Were drawn 1 to 9

Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a poor 1-48 record
The following fail this

RULING DYNASTY drawn 12
CHILLINGHAM drawn 13
CHARGING THUNDER drawn 14
SCRIPTWRITER drawn15
POINT KING drawn16
POSTILEO drawn in 18


See little I can commit to
Other than the 6/4 favourite

Ideally the best strategy here
Could be in an each way double
Using the Coventry stakes horse
But going win bet with no savers
 
Selection

VAUBAN 6/4

Win Bet

*******************************
*******************************


My summary of that day above.

Yesterday's Summary
 
Top class opening message
We had a sensational start
Triple Time winning at 33/1
That came out a 12/1 winner
Amazing to see him win that
Having pulled hard early on
Both shorter priced bets won
River Tiber won the Coventry
Vauban won the finale easily
Twilight Calls placed at 20/1
Enough to nick us a few quid
Paddington went and won too
The day's best bet survived
Clearly got the winner wrong
But we did have a place saver
Law Of The Sea rescued us
Only got one race badly wrong
But there were excuses there
Cadillac sweating badly before
Overall outstanding results
If we go days without a winner
We'd probably still be in front

 


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