The Arc De Triomphe

L o n g c h a m p 3.30

5/1 Ectot, 6/1 Taghrooda, 7/1 Harp Star
7/1 Just A Way, 8/1 Avenir Certain, 10/1 Treve
12/1 Gold Ship, 14/1 Ruler Of The World, 14/1 Tapestry
16/1 Ivanhowe, 20/1 Kingston Hill, 25/1 Dolniya
25/1 Flintshire, 33/1 Prince Gibraltar, 40/1 Chicquita
40/1 Spiritjim, 66/1 Al Kazeem, 66/1 Free Port Lux
100/1 Siljan´s Saga, 250/1 Montviron.


* The Arc De Triomphe is a Group 1 over 12f

* I will start by showing some Racing Post Ratings
* This shows all past winners previous two ratings
* It shows what it has taken to win this race

* 2013 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 120-118
* 2012 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 110 -110
* 2011 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 119-124
* 2010 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 129-108
* 2009 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 129-138
* 2008 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 124-120
* 2007 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 128-126
* 2006 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 121-121
* 2005 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 126-126
* 2004 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 116-125
* 2003 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 126-119
* 2002 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 121-126
* 2001 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 118-135
* 2000 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 132-125
* 1999 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 133-120
* 1998 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 00- 123
* 1997 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 120-115
* 1996 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 121-120
* 1995 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 123-124

* 18 of the last 19 winners managed a rating of 120 +

* I would be wary of horses that have yet to achieve this


* 3 year olds are have won 17 of the last 21 renewals.
* They should be given priority but only if the right type
* It gives an idea of how exposed each winner were

* 3yo winners had 4 11 4 8 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7 races
* 3yo winners had 3 6 3 5 4 6 5 4 5 5 5 3 4 6 6 6 6 runs that year

* Older winners had 12 17 16 9 13 11 14 13 11 runs
* Older winners had 5 7 5 2 6 4 5 6 4 runs this year


* There are only about 6 we can confidently rule out
* SPIRITJIM doesn't have the numbers after 10 runs
* SILJAN´S SAGA has the same profile and is outclassed
* MONTVIRON and FREE PORT LUX are outclassed
* The last winner aged 6 or more was in 1932
* AL KAZEEM makes no appeal as a 6 year old
* Aidan O'Brien his trainer has bad record with 3yo's here
* He runs CHICQUITA and RULER OF THE WORLD
* CHICQUITA has raced just once this season
* No winner has won with 1 run that season in decades
* CHICQUITA is out as a 4yo filly with 1 run this year

* RULER OF THE WORLD doesn't smell like an Arc winner
* Short of runs this year in a field size too big for him
* He was out with the washing in last years race
* I agree with the general view he is an unlikely winner
* KINGSTON HILL wouldn't be my first choice
* Not coming down in trip from the St Leger
* It's a bad trial race and he may want it softer
* It can take about 30 seconds more time to win a St Leger
* Not hard to see him out speeded in this race
* Stall 20 of 20 is enough factor against him

* DOLNIYA doesn't have the numbers
* A Career best Racing Post Rating of 112 is very low
* 18 of the last 19 winners managed a rating of 120 +
* There are some similarities with the 2011 winner
* That horse was 3rd in the same trial
* That horse was the 1 winner with low numbers
* Thats the one chance you can give DOLNIYA
* That said the 2011 winner was lucky
* She was not the best horse in the race
* And 18 of the last 19 winners achieved more

* I am wary of horses without 120 + Racing Post Ratings
* IVANHOWE only has a career best of 117
* Given his draw in Stall 19 he looks one to avoid
* ECTOT has a career best rating of 118
* ECTOT was very impressive in the Prix Neil
* My other problem with him is 2 runs this season
* Past winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 6 3 5 4 7 6 5 4 5 5 2 5 5 3 4 6 2 6 6 4 6 6
* Since 1990 from 24 winners only 2 had just 1 run
* One was a 4yo a year older than him
* The other was Lammtara in 1995 who only had 3 runs
* You may overlook it if he had 3-4 runs but he has 7
* He may go and win and defy his lack of runs and numbers
* I don't see enough positives with these factors against him

* PRINCE GIBRALTAR hasn't achieved a rating of 120
* I backed him in the spring for this race
* I've gone off him but just pleased he has turned up
* Pleasant surprise but I'm cold on him now
* AVENIR CERTAIN has a career best 118 Rating
* Thats lower than 18 of the last 19 winners
* AVENIR CERTAIN is a 3yo filly
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won all came from 12f
* AVENIR CERTAIN comes from 10f which may be an issue
* Not proven either way but I see it as a minor negative
* She has another Minor Negative a 47 day break
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won off 21 28 21 days
* AVENIR CERTAIN off 6 weeks and up in trip is an issue
* She's not a close fit to the recent 3yo fillies that won
* AVENIR CERTAIN has to prove her stamina as well
* Her little known sire has a low stamina index of 7f
* So does the sire of her dam as well
* Her Dam (Puggy) never proved herself beyond 7f
* She has never raced over 12f before
* Look at the last 30 winners of this race
* 29 of the 30 had raced over 12f before
* Only the 1990 winner did not do this
* The last 23 winners had ran over 12f before
* The fact she hasn't can not be a good thing
* She must be one of the least likely stayers
* She's not like last 23 winners who had 12f form
* Stall 1 could easily hurt her chances if held up
* AVENIR CERTAIN seems to have a lot to prove

* TAGHROODA won the Oaks and King George
* She was then beaten at 1/5 in the Yorkshire Oaks
* That would worry me to be honest
* She was trained to peak in the Oaks
* She was good enough to win the King George
* She did get that huge 15lbs weight/sex allowance
* Now TAGHROODA is being asked to peak a 3rd time
* No filly that won a King George has won an Arc before
* She may win but I think there are safer options
* TREVE was devastating last year in winning
* She was inexperienced and badly drawn
* This year she's been a shadow of herself
* Some talk of injuries and problems
* I just wonder if last years race broke her
* You can't say that she couldn't bounce back and win
* Like many though I doubt it and don't want to risk her
* TAPESTRY has achieved the required rating
* I'm not convinced about her though
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won had 4 4 6 runs
* TAPESTRY has 8 runs now
* Aidan O'Brien has a bad record here with 3 year olds
* I don't like the fact she comes from a mile race
* I may be wrong but I don't see enough I like

S H O R T L I S T

JUST A WAY
HARP STAR
GOLD SHIP
FLINTSHIRE

* GOLD SHIP is a 5 year old
* 5 year olds are 0-27 since 2003 1-39 since 1996
* Not many were fancied and I can overlook that
* The 2 past winners aged 5 raced 5 times that season
* GOLD SHIP has 4 runs this season - one less
* They had absences of 7 and 35 days
* GOLD SHIP has 42 days absence - a bit longer
* I'd prefer another run this year or a more recent run
* I wouldn't rule him out because of that
* I was worried he had so much form over 14f +
* The last 5yo winner Marienbad also had that though
* What Marienbad didn't do was come from a 10f race
* None of the 5yo winners won this from a 10f race
* Respected but I don't feel he's the best Japanese horse

* HARP STAR is a Japenese 3yo filly
* She is the first Japenese 3yo filly to try and win
* 3 of the last 6 winners were 3yo fillies
* They had 4 4 6 runs and had 3 3 6 this year
* HARP STAR looks good with 6 runs and 4 this year
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won all came from 12f
* HARP STAR comes from 10f which could be an issue
* The 1990 winner managed it but it was some time ago
* Not proven either way but I see that as a minor negative
* She has another Minor Negative a 42 day break
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won off 21 28 21 days
* HARP STAR off 6 weeks and up in trip is an issue
* She's not a perfect fit to the recent 3yo fillies that won
* She could win. Much depends on her jockeys decisions.

* JUST A WAY is a Japanese Machine
* Reading about him he sounds unbelievable
* He is clearly one of the best horses in the world
* Statistically he has some problems as a 5yo
* 5 year olds are 0-27 since 2003
* 5 year olds are 1-39 since 1996
* Not many were fancied and I can overlook that
* Past 5yo winners had 5 + runs that season
* JUST A WAY only has 3 runs this season
* He also has to face an absence of 119 days
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 21 21 28 71 29 21 29 21 21 21 21 35 47 21 21 21 21
* JUST A WAY also has to prove his stamina
* Last seen over 8f proven at 10f but not at 12f
* There are problems statistically with him
* You could answer these this simple statement
* JUST A WAY is the highest rated horse in the World
* Surely that has to be a reasonable answer
* His trainer states "I've trained him to get the trip "
* He looks worth a saver to me
* Statistical Negatives v The best horse in the race

* FLINTSHIRE seems to have a good chance
* He has achieved the required numbers
* The ground beat him in last years race
* He has a W W W 2 2 record away from soft ground
* His last run was a prep run and he needed it
* He is a Group 1 winner over course and distance too
* He hasn't done anything wrong when conditions suited

Selection

FLINTSHIRE 20/1 Each Way

JUST A WAY 8/1 Saver


 

 

 

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Guy Ward

 

 


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